Cold Rain Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Well, the WPC gives it a 5% chance of something like that happening We'll keep our fingers crossed then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 So we generally know which global models tend to be more reliable and more of a joke (NAVGEM, JMA, etc...) I have always wondered which short range models tend to be more trusted. Any thoughts? The RGEM has been pretty unstoppable inside 24 hours the last 1-2 years, the RAP has been better than the HRRR this winter I've found Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 Here's the HRRR at 8AM tomorrow morning. For the snow and sleet lovers, what hurts is that the fast streaking overrunning precip is going to be well north of NC - it will be streaking through Kentucky and into southern West Virginia...and that's mainly due to the north trend that occurred over the past 2 days with the 5h vort max and 850mb low. So while the sfc low and the sfc freezing line east of the mtns hasn't climbed way, way north, the mid level warming and the location of the streaking overrunning precip HAS climbed north. Lastly, normally with the way storms work, the rich get richer...that is, the locations that receive the fast streaking overrunning precip also get in on the comma head precip...so, they get the longest duration event. Yea starting to get really worried about that. For snow that is badly what we need, that streaking tongue that drops 1-3 inches before the warm nose kicks in. Just shows how difficult it is to get snow in the southeast even when it looks like a sure thing within 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yea starting to get really worried about that. For snow that is badly what we need, that streaking tongue that drops 1-3 inches before the warm nose kicks in. Just shows how difficult it is to get snow in the southeast even when it looks like a sure thing within 72 hours. Isn't the overrunning the HRRR shows basically in line with what all the globals and regional models showed, anyways? I think SW VA/KY/WV was supposed to get that tongue of overrunning for the last couple days. It is unfortunate, though I don't think unexpected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Weenies of the world unite. I present you the 95th-percentile WPC forecast! explain 95th % to me James if you would. I would assume it's basically a "top end performance" across the board output model (i.e., if literally everything goes perfectly?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 explain 95th % to me James if you would. I would assume it's basically a "top end performance" across the board output model (i.e., if literally everything goes perfectly?) It basically means that in 95% of cases, snowfall will be less than the amount they have there on the map. 5% of the time, snowfall totals will be greater than or equal to that which is on the map. In essence, it's a best-case scenario that is very unlikely to happen. But, hey, there's that 1/20th chance we get a foot! Cue the Dumb and Dumber jokes... "So you're saying there's a chance?!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Isn't the overrunning the HRRR shows basically in line with what all the globals and regional models showed, anyways? I think SW VA/KY/WV was supposed to get that tongue of overrunning for the last couple days. It is unfortunate, though I don't think unexpected. yea the rgem showed it too, but after that frame it starts to fill in to the south in nc. latest hrrr at its last frame (15hr) shows it starting to fill in ever so slightly. based on the trends i think those who get any snow before changeover will be the lucky ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It basically means that in 95% of cases, snowfall will be less than the amount they have there on the map. 5% of the time, snowfall totals will be greater than or equal to that which is on the map. In essence, it's a best-case scenario that is very unlikely to happen. But, hey, there's that 1/20th chance we get a foot! Cue the Dumb and Dumber jokes... "So you're saying there's a chance?!" I think we've been shafted 19 times now, so this is the one! Ignoring how statistics work, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The RGEM has been pretty unstoppable inside 24 hours the last 1-2 years, the RAP has been better than the HRRR this winter I've foundWhat time and how often does rgem run. Every 6 hrs or 3 hrs? Thanks we'll put it to the test. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 It basically means that in 95% of cases, snowfall will be less than the amount they have there on the map. 5% of the time, snowfall totals will be greater than or equal to that which is on the map. In essence, it's a best-case scenario that is very unlikely to happen. But, hey, there's that 1/20th chance we get a foot! Cue the Dumb and Dumber jokes... "So you're saying there's a chance?!" Yea models were showing that...guess I was just hoping we might get some moisture in time and the models weren't handling the cold air well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I think it's safe to say the NAM was out to lunch with it's delay of precipitation reaching the upstate of SC. The latest RAP has accumulating precip halfway through the northern border of Georgia; while at the same time the NAM has the edge of accumulating precip in western Alabama. Also, the RAP is a little colder at 850mb here when comparing to the NAM, which is surprising, b/c everytime I've used the RAP it normally has a warm bias at 850mb at the end of its run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yea models were showing that...guess I was just hoping we might get some moisture in time and the models weren't handling the cold air well. Yeah, I have noticed that it seems to result in a precip minima down near CLT since the overrunning comes over N NC by the end while the CLT area never really gets it much until the main precip streams in (sorry if that sounds convoluted... LOL). Anyways, Robert (WxSouth) has a map up and some discussion over on his Facebook page, for those who want to take a look: https://www.facebook.com/WxSouth: --- And DT... LOL at going 6-10" here... What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looks to me like the surface low out of TX is outperforming to upper level low to the north. I got. Feeling this thing is going to hit the upstate of SC hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looks to me like the surface low out of TX is outperforming to upper level low to the north. I got. Feeling this thing is going to hit the upstate of SC hard.Yep I could easily see the upstate reaching 3/4" of Ice! With a possible inch of sleet/SN on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Radar is starting fill in back toward Texas pretty fast now. http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 RAP warms us up at the end. I know it'll cool back down when the precip starts, but it's still concerning. I wouldn't expect BL temps to be the problem with this storm, but it could still happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 RAP warms us up at the end. I know it'll cool back down when the precip starts, but it's still concerning. I wouldn't expect BL temps to be the problem with this storm, but it could still happen. don't worry about it..the rap has a terribly bad warm bias at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 RAP warms us up at the end. I know it'll cool back down when the precip starts, but it's still concerning. I wouldn't expect BL temps to be the problem with this storm, but it could still happen. RAH even has us getting to 30 tomorrow afternoon before the precip starts. Really matters how fast we cloud up. Will definitely start off really cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 don't worry about it..the rap has a terribly bad warm bias at times. Yeah, I was thinking that was true, as well, especially at the surface. I know it seems a bit weenieish, but I do not think it's inaccurate in this case with the RAP. RAH even has us getting to 30 tomorrow afternoon before the precip starts. Really matters how fast we cloud up. Will definitely start off really cold. Even if you're at 30, with the dew points we're going to have, wet bulbs could still be in the low 20s. They have us getting to 29 tomorrow with a low of 23 tomorrow night with 3-5" of snow/sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Radar is starting fill in back toward Texas pretty fast now. http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true Wow, amazing how much precip there already is. Waaaay north though with the frozen stuff though - so sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Radar is starting fill in back toward Texas pretty fast now. http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true looks like the moisture will be here before they say at that rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 SREF looked a tick south and weaker but was warmer than its 15z run. Either way it's a safe bet GSP to CLT is probably in for a baaaad ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Here's the snow map from Ray's Weather: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hate to say it, but this is a very reasonable map at this state in the game. Here's the snow map from Ray's Weather: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I also added the change from one run of the RAP or HRRR't total precip compared to the previous run. So think of it as if the 18z RAP showed 0.75 at your station and the 19z RAP showed 0.5 it would show up as -0.25. I attached a sample of the RAP change for the 23z run minus the 22z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hate to say it, but this is a very reasonable map at this state in the game. Probably most realistic map I've seen so far with regards to model trends, but I still doubt McDowell gets 2-4... more like 1-2 then sleet and ZR... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hate to say it, but this is a very reasonable map at this state in the game. yep just 2 days ago that 7-10 area was around asheville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 RAP and HRRR trend SW on the 0z runs. Trough digging more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 RAP and HRRR trend SW on the 0z runs. Trough digging more. maybe the heavy snow area will shift south a ways over night, you never know. what do we need 75 or 100 miles for the low to go south that much isn't asking or wouldn't take much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portsmouth Weather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/retro_map.html Thank You! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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