Berlin1926 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 And a RDU zoom of the NWS snow forcast I love the sharp right turns in totals up here following county and state line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 1-3" of snow, or snow/sleet? Pure snow. I will said a caveat to my "analysis" is that I am purely going by 850 mb temps, so if there's another warm layer in there I cannot see it. I don't have soundings or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Not sure that it matters, but the RAP is the only model generating such a strong "meso" high in southeast Virginia. It actually strengthens this high up over 1030mb starting around hour 12. Note the much slower onset as well. No precip to NC by 15Z. Meanwhile, latest HRRR has precip to eastern TN by 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Note the much slower onset as well. No precip to NC by 15Z. Meanwhile, latest HRRR has precip to eastern TN by 12Z. The RAP seems to be stopping the precip at the mountains. It's definitely booking it before then, but has trouble making progress into the dry air. That matches the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I see I uploaded teh 18z which was before the afternoon updates. Here arre the updated ones zoomed on CLT Probably a dumb question, but why do both maps say "accumulated snow" versus one of them saying something about ice accrual? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Jackpot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 FWIW, it seems like any time there is a chance of a warm layer (or two), we get a quicker changeover from snow to sleet. I expect that again this time. My call here in the triad is for a couple inches of snow and then a couple inches of sleet. Will make a nice coating on the roads. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Jackpot! Hey if it can pull off a miracle and continue to trend south to pop a GOM low I'll root for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 FWIW, it seems like any time there is a chance of a warm layer (or two), we get a quicker changeover from snow to sleet. I expect that again this time. My call here in the triad is for a couple inches of snow and then a couple inches of sleet. Will make a nice coating on the roads. TW Exactly what I was thinking Tarheel. Seen it too many times. Snow estimates are bloated in the triad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 FWIW, it seems like any time there is a chance of a warm layer (or two), we get a quicker changeover from snow to sleet. I expect that again this time. My call here in the triad is for a couple inches of snow and then a couple inches of sleet. Will make a nice coating on the roads. TW Basically agreed, and the NWS RAH is forecasting 4" of snow/sleet for us, so that looks fine. That would be a pretty major storm, especially with the frigid temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Weenies of the world unite. I present you the 95th-percentile WPC forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 OBS thread yet? Seems a lot of posts here are geared toward the ingredients that are occurring right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 OBS thread yet? Seems a lot of posts here are geared toward the ingredients that are occurring right now Done: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45741-february-16th-february-17th-snowice-storm-obs/ (If that's okay... I think we usually start one around now.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Weenies of the world unite. I present you the 95th-percentile WPC forecast! Would that not be a dream come true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Not sure that it matters, but the RAP is the only model generating such a strong "meso" high in southeast Virginia. It actually strengthens this high up over 1030mb starting around hour 12. Sooooo depressing! Even 100 miles south over our area would make a huge difference for a lot of us. If the low would take just a hair lower trajectory in Texas it could easily be 100 miles or more south by the time it got here. Cruel, just cruel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Done: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45741-february-16th-february-17th-snowice-storm-obs/ (If that's okay... I think we usually start one around now.) It should be, there's too many friggin rules around this place anymore anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 ABC11 had similar thoughts. So who knows. Sent from my iPad Wonder if they realize the euro isnt really showing 5.4 inches of snow or whatever at RDU, but that takes into account snow and sleet and freezing rain.Euro is certainly not showing that much snow if you step through the hours and look at 850 temps etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Probably a dumb question, but why do both maps say "accumulated snow" versus one of them saying something about ice accrual? Typo, I will correct it on my script Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It should be, there's too many friggin rules around this place anymore anyways. It's fine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It's fine! What are we realistically hoping to see from the RAP? How much difference will a few miles south make? I guess 100 miles would matter, but I don't know that that's realistic. Is there some other possibility on the table within the realm of having a realistic chance of happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 NWS Raleigh Winter Storm Briefing as of 6 PM, Sunday, Feb 15, 2015 http://youtu.be/jKaYDAgpRao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 What are we realistically hoping to see from the RAP? How much difference will a few miles south make? I guess 100 miles would matter, but I don't know that that's realistic. Is there some other possibility on the table within the realm of having a realistic chance of happening?Only other possibility I can see happening would be God saying "jkjk got yall on this one, have fun with your snow" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 What are we realistically hoping to see from the RAP? How much difference will a few miles south make? I guess 100 miles would matter, but I don't know that that's realistic. Is there some other possibility on the table within the realm of having a realistic chance of happening? Well, the WPC gives it a 5% chance of something like that happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Here's the HRRR at 8AM tomorrow morning. For the snow and sleet lovers, what hurts is that the fast streaking overrunning precip is going to be well north of NC - it will be streaking through Kentucky and into southern West Virginia...and that's mainly due to the north trend that occurred over the past 2 days with the 5h vort max and 850mb low. So while the sfc low and the sfc freezing line east of the mtns hasn't climbed way, way north, the mid level warming and the location of the streaking overrunning precip HAS climbed north. Lastly, normally with the way storms work, the rich get richer...that is, the locations that receive the fast streaking overrunning precip also get in on the comma head precip...so, they get the longest duration event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 What are we realistically hoping to see from the RAP? How much difference will a few miles south make? I guess 100 miles would matter, but I don't know that that's realistic. Is there some other possibility on the table within the realm of having a realistic chance of happening? In south trends we trust. 23z went more south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 In south trends we trust. 23z went more south It is coming more south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Thanks for the link to the video, Isopycnic! That was pretty well put together by NWS RAH. I think it's a little dubious to be looking at the end of the runs of the RAP and HRRR at this point. Aren't they generally unreliable towards the end of their runs? Of course, at the same time, there aren't any other models coming out now, so we might as well look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Here's the HRRR at 8AM tomorrow morning. For the snow and sleet lovers, what hurts is that the fast streaking overrunning precip is going to be well north of NC - it will be streaking through Kentucky and into southern West Virginia...and that's mainly due to the north trend that occurred over the past 2 days with the 5h vort max and 850mb low. So while the sfc low and the sfc freezing line east of the mtns hasn't climbed way, way north, the mid level warming and the location of the streaking overrunning precip HAS climbed north. Lastly, normally with the way storms work, the rich get richer...that is, the locations that receive the fast streaking overrunning precip also get in on the comma head precip...so, they get the longest duration event. yep, latest rap shows the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 So we generally know which global models tend to be more reliable and more of a joke (NAVGEM, JMA, etc...) I have always wondered which short range models tend to be more trusted. Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Thanks for the link to the video, Isopycnic! That was pretty well put together by NWS RAH. I think it's a little dubious to be looking at the end of the runs of the RAP and HRRR at this point. Aren't they generally unreliable towards the end of their runs? Of course, at the same time, there aren't any other models coming out now, so we might as well look. It never does much if any good unless there's something else that backs it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.