Feb 16th/17th/18th Winter Wx

[burgertime]

18z NAVGEM still looking good with the 850 temps keeping south of 85.  Still curious if we're going to see a last minute subtle shift south here.  Maybe simply be wishful thinking, however.

 

When you're staring down the barrel of a ZR gun...all you can hope for is a misfire! Probably best case is that it shifts a little south and we get that precip racing out ahead as snow to lay down a quick 2 inches or so before the warm nose comes into play. 

[burgertime]

were are you pulling your RAP model at?

Thanks

 

Using Twister data and Instant weather maps. Thankfully I have a computer with a ridiculously high resolution so it allows for toggling between maps super simple without having to make adjustments. Just open a few tabs, change the hours and switch between them. I like picking an hour like 12 or 15 on the RAP and going three runs out. 

[downeastnc]

18z NAVGEM still looking good with the 850 temps keeping south of 85.  Still curious if we're going to see a last minute subtle shift south here.  Maybe simply be wishful thinking, however.

 

Be nice to see the models trend back to where they were a few days ago........the small southern tweaks are encouraging.

[RaleighWx]

That doesn't make sense. 0.55 + 0.88 is 1.12, which matches your QPF number, but you say the 0.55 is actual accumulated sleet and not liquid equivalent. How can that work? Either we're getting a 1:1 ratio (unlikely) or you misspoke.

? see for yourself 0.55 of sleet from 0.24 liquid qpf. little more than 2:1 ratio

StnID: krdu    Profile Thermal Adjust:  0.0       Cloud RH threshold:  85%    Average Hourly Sounding: NO Date/hour    FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype   SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF    CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF   S%| I%| L%============================================================================================================================150215/1900Z   1  31013KT  27.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150215/2000Z   2  31012KT  28.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150215/2100Z   3  31012KT  28.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150215/2200Z   4  32011KT  27.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150215/2300Z   5  32009KT  25.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150216/0000Z   6  33008KT  24.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150216/0100Z   7  33007KT  23.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150216/0200Z   8  33007KT  22.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150216/0300Z   9  33007KT  21.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150216/0400Z  10  34007KT  20.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150216/0500Z  11  34007KT  19.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150216/0600Z  12  34006KT  19.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150216/0700Z  13  35006KT  18.6F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150216/0800Z  14  35005KT  18.0F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150216/0900Z  15  35004KT  18.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150216/1000Z  16  36004KT  18.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150216/1100Z  17  36005KT  18.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150216/1200Z  18  02004KT  18.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150216/1300Z  19  04004KT  18.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150216/1400Z  20  06006KT  20.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150216/1500Z  21  06005KT  22.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150216/1600Z  22  08004KT  25.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150216/1700Z  23  12004KT  27.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150216/1800Z  24  14005KT  29.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150216/1900Z  25  14005KT  30.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150216/2000Z  26  12005KT  29.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150216/2100Z  27  11007KT  31.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150216/2200Z  28  11007KT  30.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150216/2300Z  29  11009KT  27.6F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.016    0:1|  0.0|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.02   11| 89|  0150217/0000Z  30  12008KT  26.9F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.066    0:1|  0.0|| 0.16|| 0.00|| 0.08    0|100|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150217/0100Z  31  12008KT  27.4F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.063    0:1|  0.0|| 0.29|| 0.00|| 0.15    0|100|  0150217/0200Z  32  12008KT  27.8F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.11|| 0.01|| 0.069    0:1|  0.0|| 0.40|| 0.01|| 0.21    0| 81| 19150217/0300Z  33  10007KT  28.7F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.08|| 0.07|| 0.109    0:1|  0.0|| 0.49|| 0.08|| 0.32    0| 38| 62150217/0400Z  34  07006KT  29.2F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.06|| 0.15|| 0.173    0:1|  0.0|| 0.55|| 0.23|| 0.50    0| 18| 82150217/0500Z  35  06007KT  29.4F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.15|| 0.141    0:1|  0.0|| 0.55|| 0.38|| 0.64    0|  7| 93150217/0600Z  36  02005KT  29.7F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.09|| 0.089    0:1|  0.0|| 0.55|| 0.47|| 0.73    0|  4| 96----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150217/0700Z  37  02008KT  29.9F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.12|| 0.118    0:1|  0.0|| 0.55|| 0.60|| 0.84    0|  1| 99150217/0800Z  38  04008KT  29.6F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.14|| 0.133    0:1|  0.0|| 0.55|| 0.74|| 0.98    0|  0|100150217/0900Z  39  01006KT  29.9F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.11|| 0.104    0:1|  0.0|| 0.55|| 0.85|| 1.08    0|  1| 99150217/1000Z  40  36008KT  29.7F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.032    0:1|  0.0|| 0.55|| 0.88|| 1.11    0|  2| 98150217/1100Z  41  36009KT  28.8F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004    0:1|  0.0|| 0.55|| 0.88|| 1.12    0|  9| 91

[yotaman]

Be nice to see the models trend back to where they were a few days ago........the small southern tweaks are encouraging.

I agree, storm needs to move off the coast of SC. That would give us the best chance of winter weather.

[WidreMann]

NWS upped their totals in central NC offices are getting their forecasts out now so map might change.

 

QPF went up in central NC from widespread 0.4" to 0.6"

 

Gotta love the inconsistencies between offices, and the usual RAH having way too high totals right before they back out at the last minute (only to back out too much and be wrong yet again).

[Wow]

Using Twister data and Instant weather maps. Thankfully I have a computer with a ridiculously high resolution so it allows for toggling between maps super simple without having to make adjustments. Just open a few tabs, change the hours and switch between them. I like picking an hour like 12 or 15 on the RAP and going three runs out. 

 

Or use our model center to run a trend loop.

 

RAP is free for all !

 

http://www.americanwx.com/models/index.html?&model=rap&run_time=22z&param=500mbvort&map=NA&run_hour=3&loop=trend

[lilj4425]

Gotta love the inconsistencies between offices, and the usual RAH having way too high totals right before they back out at the last minute (only to back out too much and be wrong yet again).

This is why I love being in GSP's area. The best of the best.

[RaleighWx]

NWS 48 hour forecast snow and forecast glaze

[strongwxnc]

Or use our model center to run a trend loop.

RAP is free for all !

http://www.americanwx.com/models/index.html?&model=rap&run_time=22z&param=500mbvort&map=NA&run_hour=3&loop=trend

Lol. How quickly I forget. That is what happens when you access the broad on your phone more than at a computer!

Thanks Jon!

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[jacobr57]

NWS 48 hour forecast snow and forecast glaze

 

How is this determined? The totals are certainly higher than my NWS forecast.

[RaleighWx]

And a RDU zoom of the NWS snow forcast

[RaleighWx]

How is this determined? The totals are certainly higher than my NWS forecast.

 

It is from the NDFD (National Digital Forecast Database) which is the gridded forecast output from the NWS offices.

[wake4est]

And a RDU zoom of the NWS snow forcast

Wait, so then how much sleet are they calling for if the forecasted glaze is so minimal?

[cg2916]

 

? see for yourself 0.55 of sleet from 0.24 liquid qpf. little more than 2:1 ratio

StnID: krdu    Profile Thermal Adjust:  0.0       Cloud RH threshold:  85%    Average Hourly Sounding: NO Date/hour    FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype   SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF    CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF   S%| I%| L%============================================================================================================================150215/1900Z   1  31013KT  27.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150215/2000Z   2  31012KT  28.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150215/2100Z   3  31012KT  28.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150215/2200Z   4  32011KT  27.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150215/2300Z   5  32009KT  25.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150216/0000Z   6  33008KT  24.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150216/0100Z   7  33007KT  23.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150216/0200Z   8  33007KT  22.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150216/0300Z   9  33007KT  21.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150216/0400Z  10  34007KT  20.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150216/0500Z  11  34007KT  19.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150216/0600Z  12  34006KT  19.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150216/0700Z  13  35006KT  18.6F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150216/0800Z  14  35005KT  18.0F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150216/0900Z  15  35004KT  18.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150216/1000Z  16  36004KT  18.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150216/1100Z  17  36005KT  18.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150216/1200Z  18  02004KT  18.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150216/1300Z  19  04004KT  18.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150216/1400Z  20  06006KT  20.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150216/1500Z  21  06005KT  22.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150216/1600Z  22  08004KT  25.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150216/1700Z  23  12004KT  27.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150216/1800Z  24  14005KT  29.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150216/1900Z  25  14005KT  30.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150216/2000Z  26  12005KT  29.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150216/2100Z  27  11007KT  31.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150216/2200Z  28  11007KT  30.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150216/2300Z  29  11009KT  27.6F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.016    0:1|  0.0|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.02   11| 89|  0150217/0000Z  30  12008KT  26.9F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.066    0:1|  0.0|| 0.16|| 0.00|| 0.08    0|100|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150217/0100Z  31  12008KT  27.4F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.063    0:1|  0.0|| 0.29|| 0.00|| 0.15    0|100|  0150217/0200Z  32  12008KT  27.8F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.11|| 0.01|| 0.069    0:1|  0.0|| 0.40|| 0.01|| 0.21    0| 81| 19150217/0300Z  33  10007KT  28.7F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.08|| 0.07|| 0.109    0:1|  0.0|| 0.49|| 0.08|| 0.32    0| 38| 62150217/0400Z  34  07006KT  29.2F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.06|| 0.15|| 0.173    0:1|  0.0|| 0.55|| 0.23|| 0.50    0| 18| 82150217/0500Z  35  06007KT  29.4F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.15|| 0.141    0:1|  0.0|| 0.55|| 0.38|| 0.64    0|  7| 93150217/0600Z  36  02005KT  29.7F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.09|| 0.089    0:1|  0.0|| 0.55|| 0.47|| 0.73    0|  4| 96----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150217/0700Z  37  02008KT  29.9F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.12|| 0.118    0:1|  0.0|| 0.55|| 0.60|| 0.84    0|  1| 99150217/0800Z  38  04008KT  29.6F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.14|| 0.133    0:1|  0.0|| 0.55|| 0.74|| 0.98    0|  0|100150217/0900Z  39  01006KT  29.9F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.11|| 0.104    0:1|  0.0|| 0.55|| 0.85|| 1.08    0|  1| 99150217/1000Z  40  36008KT  29.7F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.032    0:1|  0.0|| 0.55|| 0.88|| 1.11    0|  2| 98150217/1100Z  41  36009KT  28.8F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004    0:1|  0.0|| 0.55|| 0.88|| 1.12    0|  9| 91

Where did you get that sounding?

[SN_Lover]

RAP continues the south trend. 

[RaleighWx]

How is this determined? The totals are certainly higher than my NWS forecast.

 

How is this determined? The totals are certainly higher than my NWS forecast.

 

 

I see I uploaded teh 18z which was before the afternoon  updates. Here arre the updated ones zoomed on CLT

[Brick Tamland]

WNCN met just said 2 to 4 inches of snow here with sleet. He made it sound like it would be mostly snow. And they had 3 to 5 inches of snow just to the north.

[wake4est]

I see I uploaded teh 18z which was before the afternoon updates. Here arre the updated ones zoomed on CLT

Ah. Gotcha. Thanks!

[RaleighWx]

Where did you get that sounding?

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/retro_map.html

[HKY_WX]

Why?  Ice storms suck big time, who wants branches down everywhere.

It's always been one of my favorite extreme weather events. Just something i've enjoyed over the years. To me the best situation is a combo of snow/sleet/freezing rain, but those events are few and far between.

[wake4est]

WNCN met just said 2 to 4 inches of snow here with sleet. He made it sound like it would be mostly snow. And they had 3 to 5 inches of snow just to the north.

You know better than anyone that TV mets around here ❤️ their in-house models which are largely weird and different.

[downeastnc]

Going to get cold tonight, wind is laying up and temps should freefall for a few hrs, DP is still -8 here but should rise as the sun sets....calling for around 15 at PGV, then hopefully the clouds should  move in right around daybreak or mid morning.....cant see how anything that falls later in the day doesn't stick immediately to every surface across NC....need that south trend to keep up though.

[burrel2]

Not sure that it matters, but the RAP is the only model generating such a strong "meso" high in southeast Virginia.  It actually strengthens this high up over 1030mb starting around hour 12.

[SN_Lover]

Not sure that it matters, but the RAP is the only model generating such a strong "meso" high in southeast Virginia.  It actually strengthens this high up over 1030mb starting around hour 12.

Yup, its digging the trough with each consecutive run. HRRR is doing the same thing. 

[mackerel_sky]

Our local Wyff 4 met, says they are going with the Euro, and has Greenville wit 3 inches of snow, then sleet

[superjames1992]

And a RDU zoom of the NWS snow forcast

 

Interesting inconsistency with RAH going lower than either Blacksburg or GSP.  If you extend the 5-6" line along a diagonal line as you would expect, western GSO and Winston-Salem would be in the 5-6" range.

 

I just got a look at the 12z UKMET.  Pretty nice run for N NC.  Looks like ~5-7" of snow at GSO before going over to sleet.  About 1" QPF total for most of the state.  The changeover occurs sometime in between 03z and 06z on Tuesday (a.k.a Monday from 10 PM to Tuesday to 1 AM).

 

I'd say 1-3" for RDU and CLT on it.

 

SW VA is basically all-snow.  Some areas near the border might end as a little sleet.

[marino13882]

WNCN met just said 2 to 4 inches of snow here with sleet. He made it sound like it would be mostly snow. And they had 3 to 5 inches of snow just to the north.

ABC11 had similar thoughts. So who knows.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[WidreMann]

Interesting inconsistency with RAH going lower than either Blacksburg or GSP.  If you extend the 5-6" line along a diagonal line as you would expect, western GSO and Winston-Salem would be in the 5-6" range.

 

I just got a look at the 12z UKMET.  Pretty nice run for N NC.  Looks like ~5-7" of snow at GSO before going over to sleet.  About 1" QPF total for most of the state.  The changeover occurs sometime in between 03z and 06z on Tuesday (a.k.a Monday from 10 PM to Tuesday to 1 AM).

 

I'd say 1-3" for RDU and CLT on it.

1-3" of snow, or snow/sleet?

[DopplerWx]

ABC11 had similar thoughts. So who knows.

Sent from my iPad

must be their in house models showing more snow at the onset.  we need the snow to come in as early as possible, which we may not know for sure until tonights short range model runs.