tramadoc Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 WSW issued by AKQ and valid through Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The quicker GFS really helps GSO with roughly 3-4" of snow, and a lot of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 18z NAM cobb is 0.55 sleet and 0.88 freezing rain for RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 18z NAM cobb is 0.55 sleet and 0.88 freezing rain for RDU How can this model be so grotesquely bad with QPF and never get fixed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 How bout sleet ratios? Sleet is usually 3 to 1. If you have surface temps in the lower 20's I could see maybe 3.5 to 4 but really hard to determine because you are looking at solid mass already. Maybe someone else knows the anwser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Sleet is usually 3 to 1. If you have surface temps in the lower 20's I could see maybe 3.5 to 4 but really hard to determine because you are looking at solid mass already. Maybe someone else knows the anwser You're right; it's about 3:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Look at the 850 warm nose, looks like it stops at I-40. GSO is very close to staying all snow, 850's are at 0, 925's and 700's are below 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The staying power of sleet is about 3 times better than snow. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 if we get 2 inches of sleet, that would suck. i'd rather see an icestorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 AKQ seems not not think we taint as much and goes 4-6. It looks like most of the "pros" want to go further south than most guidance. This is sure going to be an interesting one for a good bunch of us as QPF is no concern and we just need to hold off tainting for as long as possible rather than playing a waiting game for the cold to arrive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 check out the 2m temps friday morning for northern nc. wowza. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I just don't see things going that far north just a few days after the models had everything going further and further south. Then they turn around and have the other extreme and goes further and further north. Who can believe them when they have been so bipolar with this storm? I still think it will be more snow here and switching back and forth with snow and sleet. 3 inches of snow with some sleet on top is what I think at the minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 if we get 2 inches of sleet, that would suck. i'd rather see an icestorm. Why? Ice storms suck big time, who wants branches down everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 models seem to be converging now for sure, i;m hoping for at least SOME snow here in rdu (but that even seems to be in jeopardy now). but it looks like sig sleet/frz rain for sure. here is the 18z nam we discussed earlier in regards to frz rain vs sleet: Ha cobb is exact opposite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I just don't see things going that far north just a few days after the models had everything going further an further south. Then they turn around and have the other extreme and goes further and further north. Who can believe them when they have been so bipolar with this storm? I still think it will be more snow here and switching back and forth with snow and sleet. 3 inches of snow with some sleet on top is what I think at b the minimum. hard to go against all guidance though. models will naturally change the closer we get to the event. i sure hope you're right, but with the latest trends today i doubt rdu even sees a trace of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 How can this model be so grotesquely bad with QPF and never get fixed? Keep in mind that is 0.55 accumulation of sleet not qpf towards sleet. Total QPF at RDU of 1.12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Some actual PM highs vs. 12Z GFS progs:AHN 48 vs 49ATL ~41 vs. 43GVL 42 vs. 45PDK ~39 vs. 42RGA ~34 vs. 36MGE ~38vs. 40 So, these N GA highs came in on average 2 degrees colder than the 12Z GFS per Meteostar fwiw. Regarding IP, I'd say it averages somewhere around 4:1 based on past major ATL IP's. So, 1" of liquid was equivalent to ~4" of IP but with a range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Insane cold with snow (and sleet) pack here and north. WIdespread negative numbers over the N half of NC. Check out the spot of -30s over WV. This is valid 7 AM Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Keep in mind that is 0.55 accumulation of sleet not qpf towards sleet. Total QPF at RDU of 1.12That doesn't make sense. 0.55 + 0.88 is 1.12, which matches your QPF number, but you say the 0.55 is actual accumulated sleet and not liquid equivalent. How can that work? Either we're getting a 1:1 ratio (unlikely) or you misspoke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 That doesn't make sense. 0.55 + 0.88 is 1.12, which matches your QPF number, but you say the 0.55 is actual accumulated sleet and not liquid equivalent. How can that work? Either we're getting a 1:1 ratio (unlikely) or you misspoke. Check your math. .55+.88 = 1.43. My guess is he used somewhere around a 3:1 ratio, so .55 inches of sleet = .18 inches qpf. That would give 1.06 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Check your math. .55+.88 = 1.43. My guess is he used somewhere around a 3:1 ratio, so .55 inches of sleet = .18 inches qpf. That would give 1.06 inches.Yeah, I forgot how to math. Still seems low. I have trouble believing we'll get that much ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 NC Emergency Management just issued an update (5pm) via Facebook that says the precip will "over spread central NC by noon." Is that valid? Their totals were also a tad higher than forecast. Someone else can link it for me as I am on my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The two different NAM outputs would provide two different scenarios: Sleet storm kind of like this (RDU mostly sleet, but not as extreme of course): http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.19960107.gif Ice storm: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20021204/ Which would you prefer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 At KEHO at least (Shelby) there was a subtle move toward the NAM per soundings. While the 12z was 3/4 snow, the 18z turns to sleet considerably sooner. Could be a hint that the NAM's less snowy/more icy depiction is closer to what will happen. EDIT: Referring to the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 NWS upped their totals in central NC offices are getting their forecasts out now so map might change. QPF went up in central NC from widespread 0.4" to 0.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 RAP keeps ticking south...took a descent jump with it's latest run WRT to our energy out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 RAP keeps ticking south...took a descent jump with it's latest run WRT to our energy out west. 18z NAVGEM still looking good with the 850 temps keeping south of 85. Still curious if we're going to see a last minute subtle shift south here. Maybe simply be wishful thinking, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 were are you pulling your RAP model at? Thanks RAP keeps ticking south...took a descent jump with it's latest run WRT to our energy out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 18z NAVGEM still looking good with the 850 temps keeping south of 85. Still curious if we're going to see a last minute subtle shift south here. Maybe simply be wishful thinking, however. I don't think it's wishful thinking. Over the years we've seen last minute shifts. I just hope last nights shift north was it...LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Rgem was colder at 850 and farther south with the surface low. It's completely cloudy here already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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