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Feb 16th/17th/18th Winter Wx


burgertime

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Yea, and I would imagine that it is much colder at the surface compared to the GFS since the event gets here 12 hours faster... Probably a much bigger ice threat for CAD regions on the Ukmet.

Yeah last night's UK had a front end thump of snow I-85 and NW transitioning to ice. Most of NC never got above freezing for the event at the surface. I would expect this run to be similar except with the snow areas expanded slightly SE.

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I think the UK must focus on the lead energy, as does the 12z CMC. Small hit for NC and n-GA/SC.

Yes, UKMET looks to remain Mon-Monday night. Track appears very similar to 0z based on mediocre maps. 

 

The GEM just leaves the Baja energy out there to die.... never ejects....thus, wave #2 never happens.

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I think SC and GA need to rely on the first wave for frozen precip, I would not bank on the 2nd one doing it, it may be too amplified and warm.  Even the NavGEM does not wash out wave 1 like the GFS does so it may be stronger.

 

I was thinking the same thing. I feel more confident in that first wave having the chance to produce here than a second wave for all the reasons you mentioned. 

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Yes, UKMET looks to remain Mon-Monday night. Track appears very similar to 0z based on mediocre maps. 

 

The GEM just leaves the Baja energy out there to die.... never ejects....thus, wave #2 never happens.

I like the lead wave idea with just overrunning precip. Coastal could lead to bigger snows but playing with fire.

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I was thinking the same thing. I feel more confident in that first wave having the chance to produce here than a second wave for all the reasons you mentioned. 

 

The GFS is probably too warm on wave 2, but instead of 37 and rain it would probably be 33/33 and rain thats probably a good thing though because thats a devastating ice storm in ATL from 90-105 if the GFS is 5-6 degrees too warm, but given that setup with no wedge I don't see FZRA there, my experience is generally ATL only sees FZRA with a wedge, any system tracking to their south with a high to the north is usually either 31 and snow or 33 and rain.

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One take away is still much spread in the globals so far at 12z.

 

12z GFS less on 1st wave, more on the 2nd wave.

12z CMC most on the 1st wave (moderate event) not much on the 2nd wave

12z UKMET, seems to make one bigger system.

 

Means we arent much closer to a consensus yet unfortunately.

 

I do like we still have an event on all models, allan. 

What do you think about timing? Does your gut tell you monday or tuesday? 

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The 00z UKMET was not a small hit at all. It was a blockbuster for I-40 and a big ice storm for many in NC, NE GA, and NW SC. All of NC started out with significant snow, as well. If the 12z run was a little south, that would be helpful for many.

 

Yeah, 0z UKMET was a big NC winter storm with ice involved for some. 

 

I like the lead wave idea with just overrunning precip. Coastal could lead to bigger snows but playing with fire.

 

I am a sucker for trying to reel in the big fish..... would like to see that wave eject and see what happens. The lead wave will have extremely dry air in NC to overcome, so if it's light precip, it's an uphill battle.

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One take away is still much spread in the globals so far at 12z.

 

12z GFS less on 1st wave, more on the 2nd wave.

12z CMC most on the 1st wave (moderate event) not much on the 2nd wave

12z UKMET, seems to make one bigger system.

 

Means we arent much closer to a consensus yet unfortunately.

I think it's also worth noting, the UKMET has been very stable in this look.  Is it right, who knows, but it's been nothing but consistent of late.

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I do like we still have an event on all models, allan. 

What do you think about timing? Does your gut tell you monday or tuesday? 

 

My gut says 1st wave brings sig snow to TN/N AL/N GA, some snow to NW SC western/southern NC but not much up here and weakens, with bigger deal on 2nd wave, snow/ice for many. But right now that is more based on gut.

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One take away is still much spread in the globals so far at 12z.

 

12z GFS less on 1st wave, more on the 2nd wave.

12z CMC most on the 1st wave (moderate event) not much on the 2nd wave

12z UKMET, seems to make one bigger system.

 

Means we arent much closer to a consensus yet unfortunately.

 

 

The good thing is either way it looks like we end up with at least something wintry.

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Yeah, 0z UKMET was a big NC winter storm with ice involved for some. 

 

 

I am a sucker for trying to reel in the big fish..... would like to see that wave eject and see what happens. The lead wave will have extremely dry air in NC to overcome, so if it's light precip, it's an uphill battle.

 

I agree, the light stuff probably won't do much.  I'd like to get that baja energy to quit being such a tease for once this winter and LET IT GO!!

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I know we have been worried about suppression of the system at times. Even though its a cold look now, I'd be more worried about the high pressure to the north moving off shore too soon (i.e. 12Z GFS), allowing heights to increase out ahead of the storm, allowing it to turn the corner sooner and have to rely on insitu cold air damning to maintain snow for the Piedmont of North and South Carolina. Even with an arctic air mass in place ahead of the storm, a stronger storm without high pressure support at our latitude could move us toward a trend of more ice and rain into the piedmont.

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