Dunkman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yea, and I would imagine that it is much colder at the surface compared to the GFS since the event gets here 12 hours faster... Probably a much bigger ice threat for CAD regions on the Ukmet. Yeah last night's UK had a front end thump of snow I-85 and NW transitioning to ice. Most of NC never got above freezing for the event at the surface. I would expect this run to be similar except with the snow areas expanded slightly SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I think the UK must focus on the lead energy, as does the 12z CMC. Small hit for NC and n-GA/SC. If it's similar to 0Z, the UKMET was hardly a small hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I think the UK must focus on the lead energy, as does the 12z CMC. Small hit for NC and n-GA/SC. Yes, UKMET looks to remain Mon-Monday night. Track appears very similar to 0z based on mediocre maps. The GEM just leaves the Baja energy out there to die.... never ejects....thus, wave #2 never happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I think SC and GA need to rely on the first wave for frozen precip, I would not bank on the 2nd one doing it, it may be too amplified and warm. Even the NavGEM does not wash out wave 1 like the GFS does so it may be stronger. I was thinking the same thing. I feel more confident in that first wave having the chance to produce here than a second wave for all the reasons you mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The 00z UKMET was not a small hit at all. It was a blockbuster for I-40 and a big ice storm for many in NC, NE GA, and NW SC. All of NC started out with significant snow, as well. If the 12z run was a little south, that would be helpful for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yes, UKMET looks to remain Mon-Monday night. Track appears very similar to 0z based on mediocre maps. The GEM just leaves the Baja energy out there to die.... never ejects....thus, wave #2 never happens. I like the lead wave idea with just overrunning precip. Coastal could lead to bigger snows but playing with fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 One take away is still much spread in the globals so far at 12z. 12z GFS less on 1st wave, more on the 2nd wave. 12z CMC most on the 1st wave (moderate event) not much on the 2nd wave 12z UKMET, seems to make one bigger system. Means we arent much closer to a consensus yet unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I was thinking the same thing. I feel more confident in that first wave having the chance to produce here than a second wave for all the reasons you mentioned. The GFS is probably too warm on wave 2, but instead of 37 and rain it would probably be 33/33 and rain thats probably a good thing though because thats a devastating ice storm in ATL from 90-105 if the GFS is 5-6 degrees too warm, but given that setup with no wedge I don't see FZRA there, my experience is generally ATL only sees FZRA with a wedge, any system tracking to their south with a high to the north is usually either 31 and snow or 33 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I like the lead wave idea with just overrunning precip. Coastal could lead to bigger snows but playing with fire.Like Jeremy said, UK has been doing well. Hope it's right, unless I get rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I think the GGEM is better than last night, at least up here. Almost all of NC gets 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 One take away is still much spread in the globals so far at 12z. 12z GFS less on 1st wave, more on the 2nd wave. 12z CMC most on the 1st wave (moderate event) not much on the 2nd wave 12z UKMET, seems to make one bigger system. Means we arent much closer to a consensus yet unfortunately. I do like we still have an event on all models, allan. What do you think about timing? Does your gut tell you monday or tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I do like we still have an event on all models, allan. What do you think about timing? Does your gut tell you monday or tuesday? And will it be 1st wave, 2nd wave, or all one big system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The 00z UKMET was not a small hit at all. It was a blockbuster for I-40 and a big ice storm for many in NC, NE GA, and NW SC. All of NC started out with significant snow, as well. If the 12z run was a little south, that would be helpful for many. Yeah, 0z UKMET was a big NC winter storm with ice involved for some. I like the lead wave idea with just overrunning precip. Coastal could lead to bigger snows but playing with fire. I am a sucker for trying to reel in the big fish..... would like to see that wave eject and see what happens. The lead wave will have extremely dry air in NC to overcome, so if it's light precip, it's an uphill battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 One take away is still much spread in the globals so far at 12z. 12z GFS less on 1st wave, more on the 2nd wave. 12z CMC most on the 1st wave (moderate event) not much on the 2nd wave 12z UKMET, seems to make one bigger system. Means we arent much closer to a consensus yet unfortunately. I think it's also worth noting, the UKMET has been very stable in this look. Is it right, who knows, but it's been nothing but consistent of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I do like we still have an event on all models, allan. What do you think about timing? Does your gut tell you monday or tuesday? My gut says 1st wave brings sig snow to TN/N AL/N GA, some snow to NW SC western/southern NC but not much up here and weakens, with bigger deal on 2nd wave, snow/ice for many. But right now that is more based on gut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GEFS more or less supports the Op but much wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 One take away is still much spread in the globals so far at 12z. 12z GFS less on 1st wave, more on the 2nd wave. 12z CMC most on the 1st wave (moderate event) not much on the 2nd wave 12z UKMET, seems to make one bigger system. Means we arent much closer to a consensus yet unfortunately. The good thing is either way it looks like we end up with at least something wintry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The good thing is either way it looks like we end up with at least something wintry. At this point I would be surprised if RDU doesnt see accumulating wintry precip. But the timing, type, and how much still very much in air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GEFS more or less supports the Op but much wetter. how does it look with the first wave qpf wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yeah, 0z UKMET was a big NC winter storm with ice involved for some. I am a sucker for trying to reel in the big fish..... would like to see that wave eject and see what happens. The lead wave will have extremely dry air in NC to overcome, so if it's light precip, it's an uphill battle. I agree, the light stuff probably won't do much. I'd like to get that baja energy to quit being such a tease for once this winter and LET IT GO!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 At this point I would be surprised if RDU doesnt see accumulating wintry precip. But the timing, type, and how much still very much in air. Hopefully more of the UK and GFS variety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Panovich's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iUzW5pzjW9Q Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z UKMET was definitely further north than 0z...it led with the superbowl winter storm...let's see if it's a trend the other models follow everntually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z UKMET was definitely further north than 0z...it led with the superbowl winter storm...let's see if it's a trend the other models follow everntually. I think most of us disagree. It looked a tick south to me for sure. Edit: What source were you using for your maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z UKMET was definitely further north than 0z...it led with the superbowl winter storm...let's see if it's a trend the other models follow everntually. Looks about the same to me. Maybe a little south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Panovich's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iUzW5pzjW9Q What were his bottomlines? Can't really listen to his "vlog" because I'm deaf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z UKMET was definitely further north than 0z...it led with the superbowl winter storm...let's see if it's a trend the other models follow everntually. It was definitely a little south, but he may be talking about an inverted trough up into his area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I know we have been worried about suppression of the system at times. Even though its a cold look now, I'd be more worried about the high pressure to the north moving off shore too soon (i.e. 12Z GFS), allowing heights to increase out ahead of the storm, allowing it to turn the corner sooner and have to rely on insitu cold air damning to maintain snow for the Piedmont of North and South Carolina. Even with an arctic air mass in place ahead of the storm, a stronger storm without high pressure support at our latitude could move us toward a trend of more ice and rain into the piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 What were his bottomlines? Can't really listen to his "vlog" because I'm deaf. Confidence is increasing that there will be some type of winter weather. Still not sure what will specifically happen with three different waves on Monday, Tuesday, Thursday. Snowmeter is at a 3! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z GEFS 72 hour precip. Pretty juicy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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