burrel2 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Precip maps are out now for the RGEM on meteocentre.. the low definitely trended a little weaker and every so slightly south/east of it's 12z position. Precip also gets in about an hour or so faster on this run compared to the last one and the precip amounts are slightly less than the 12z run. It's actually sped the system up so much that all of the precip has moved out of the western upstate by midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 What's confounding is that the NAM usually picks up on CAD events best, but it is also the warmest at 2m, at least in CLT area. One thing I would say beanskip is that this is more of a leftover cold airmass as opposed to a strong damming high setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Precip maps are out now for the RGEM on meteocentre.. the low definitely trended a little weaker and every so slightly south/east of it's 12z position. Precip also gets in about an hour or so faster on this run compared to the last one and the precip amounts are slightly less than the 12z run. It's actually sped the system up so much that all of the precip has moved out of the western upstate by midnight. GSP said the precip would end by Monday night so the RGEM is following their guidance there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 Looking at the last few runs of the RAP it is ticking a hair south and keeping the vort out in the southwest stronger with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Looking at the last few runs of the RAP it is ticking a hair south and keeping the vort out in the southwest stronger with each run. Looks like its interacting with that baja low more. GFS is kind of doing the same, but not to the magnitude the RAP is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Initial 18Z GFS maps suggest it will likely tick south of the 12Z GFS for the low's track. Let's see. Edit: maybe not. It is starting off a little weaker fwiw. It is ~1 mb weaker once into AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 fwiw gfs and latest hrrr run are identical at 15hr with snow over top half of tn heading toward western nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 FYI the RGEM pytpes this winter in the NE have been on occassion 20-40 miles too warm on most events so you may want to shift them south a bit. RGEM suggesting BNA and RDU see hardly any snow now, almost entirely PL or FZRA...this one is done for ATL, even using a margin of error I don't see them getting anything frozen...I'm not sure HSV or CHA even see much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 18z looks a tad warmer. Still starts out as snow for NC...low looks a tick south but NW precip shield is larger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The 18z GFS is a little faster, it appears. Looks like maybe 2-4" then over to sleet here in the Triad. It really hammers from hr 33-36 with close to a half-inch of QPF during that three-hour period, though it appears that 850s are gradually transitioning above freezing in that period. Still, that could be significant sleet... Largely the same as the 12z run, though. We're really nitpicking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Pretty much the same but maybe a hair warmer. Still doesn't get more than a degree or two abv freezing in the 800 to 850mb layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I think we might be seeing the baja low hanging back a little and more overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 Less QPF on this run since the low was weaker. Not as wet for southern VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Once again, the GFS is REALLY COLD at the surface. It has I-40/N in the teens for the duration. Man. QPF is pretty extensive with probably eight or nine tenths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 models seem to be converging now for sure, i;m hoping for at least SOME snow here in rdu (but that even seems to be in jeopardy now). but it looks like sig sleet/frz rain for sure. here is the 18z nam we discussed earlier in regards to frz rain vs sleet: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm not sure why it's warmer and weaker. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Once again, the GFS is REALLY COLD at the surface. It has I-40/N in the teens for the duration. Man. what kind of totals qpf are we looking at with the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 what kind of totals qpf are we looking at with the 18z GFS 0.75-1" for both of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 0.75-1" for both of us. Snow Ratios will be high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 0.75-1" for both of us. Half of that as snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 0.75-1" for both of us. Thanks, SJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Have we ever seen a southern storm track follow a northern storm with as much energy as Neptune? Obviously, it's helped draw down a very cold/dry air mass. Can't remember a situation like this, and am wondering if this year's trending could result in another storm riding north, OR if all that energy will cause a more suppressed solution. A few very well-respected mets were most concerned about suppression once the storm seemed fairly certain. Obviously, the model guidance no longer lines up with that, but I don't think much has changed, other than the track of the low, since then. I guess the HP is a bit weaker/more retreated. The uncertainty here is just amazing to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 models seem to be converging now for sure, i;m hoping for at least SOME snow here in rdu (but that even seems to be in jeopardy now). but it looks like sig sleet/frz rain for sure. here is the 18z nam we discussed earlier in regards to frz rain vs sleet: That would actually be a great storm. You always want snow over anything else but that amount would be close to 3" of sleet. Great sledding and it would take a long time to melt. The roads would be a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 RGEM is actually much warmer for RDU than at 12z. It gets us into the upper 30s by Tuesday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GFS precip, RDU is roughly .5-.6", fairly consistent with Euro. GSO jackpots... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 RGEM is actually much warmer for RDU than at 12z. It gets us into the upper 30s by Tuesday afternoon. Precip should be done by then. If it ain't doing anything then, I'll bet we do climb above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 That would actually be a great storm. You always want snow over anything else but that amount would be close to 3" of sleet. Great sledding and it would take a long time to melt. The roads would be a mess. The chunk of sleet followed by a glaze of ZR is amazing for sledding and it looks that way for Wake Co. I'm just mad I moved somewhere without any close hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 New updated map from Brad no major changes but now 4-6 line is down to Hickory and Statesville and other forecast totals have gone a little more south: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Here's the WPC preferred track, lines up with the more southern cluster of ensemble members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 How bout sleet ratios? 3:1 per Brick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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