WidreMann Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 18z NAM looks like lots of freezing rain for RDU925s are still below freezing at 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Here is the 12z WRF-ARW 84 hour qpf. I am not sure how reliable the qpf forecast is from this, probably similar to NAM with the high resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguysc Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Winter Storm Warning just issued for Gaffney, SC and surrounding areas for 1" of snow and quarter inch of ice...I'm thinking maybe more ice than a quarter inch. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=SCZ008&warncounty=SCC021&firewxzone=SCZ008&local_place1=2%20Miles%20N%20East%20Gaffney%20SC&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning&lat=35.1165&lon=-81.6266#.VOEAZPnF98E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I would think the nam would have a better handle on the warm nose.NAM loves warm noses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Here is the 12z WRF-ARW 84 hour qpf. I am not sure how reliable the qpf forecast is from this, probably similar to NAM with the high resolution. WOW, it has 1.25-1.50qpf for N.Foothills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Well, at least the NAM and GFS are converging on QPF across N.C. -- widespread .75-1.25 amounts seems to be the consensus. Now, if we can just declare winner on temp profiles .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 NAM at RDU, most likely zr i would think. that's a deep warm nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 but how thick is it? This is hour 33 only deepens from here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Chop those totals down by 25-50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 NAM at RDU, most likely zr i would think. that's a deep warm nose. But that's also a deep and cold surface layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Here is the 12z WRF-ARW 84 hour qpf. I am not sure how reliable the qpf forecast is from this, probably similar to NAM with the high resolution.yikes 80% or more of that is some sort of frozen in sw nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Keep in mind that IP do not lead to Ice Storms. Although it does make for a great sledding base before freezing rain sets in. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 925s are still below freezing at 06z. I dont think the near surface below freezing layer will be thick enough. 925s are still below freezing at 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Chop those totals down by 25-50%. I don't think 1" QPF is unreasonable, though. Other modeling has supported it at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 First (and only?) WSW of the season! Here are GSP's thoughts for the NW piedmont of NC: Winter Storm WarningURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC322 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2015...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ANDNORTHEAST GEORGIA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT....LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYTONIGHT...AND TRACK ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE CAROLINASMONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTOTHE MOUNTAINS AND GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS DURING THEAFTERNOON. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT AN INITIALPERIOD OF SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...BUT QUICKLYWARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO FREEZINGRAIN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOONAND EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT...BUTNOT BEFORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE OCCUR.NCZ035>037-056-057-502-504-506-160430-/O.UPG.KGSP.WS.A.0001.150216T1500Z-150217T1700Z//O.NEW.KGSP.WS.W.0001.150216T1700Z-150217T1200Z/ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHLEHEM...TAYLORSVILLE...STONY POINT...STATESVILLE...MOORESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY...NEWTON...ST. STEPHENS...SALISBURY322 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2015...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON MONDAY TO 7 AM ESTTUESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUEDA WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND ICE...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROMNOON MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOLONGER IN EFFECT.* LOCATIONS...THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA.* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS.* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING...WHEN THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH SLEET AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END AS FREEZING RAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...ALONG WITH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S.* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW FALLING ON COLD ROADS...WITH LIGHT SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY CAUSE MAJOR TRAVEL PROBLEMS ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Asheville's WSW is 2-4 inches of snow with a quarter inch of ice. Seems a bit high on the snow end and light on the ice, but they're the professionals!I think we get that with how cold the airmass is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 the skew t link went down for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Based on thicknesses NAM is sleet til about 4-5z Tuesday then definitely freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Here is the 12z WRF-ARW 84 hour qpf. I am not sure how reliable the qpf forecast is from this, probably similar to NAM with the high resolution. Oh man! We will need electric trucks from nearby states to help if that massive QPF verifies! Parts of the mountains just west of AVL are over 2" of liquid! Big swath of 1.50" of liquid. Holy cow. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Temps drop by nearly 10C between 850mb and 900mb during the ht of the storm. That's quite robust layer of cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I dont think the near surface below freezing layer will be thick enough.How thick doesn't need to be? If 850 temps were at 0, we'd be talking about snow, but they're only a degree or two above 0, and it's below freezing, and actually very below freezing, for a lot of the surface layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 18z NAM also pulls back the 2m freezing line a bit -- Shelby warms to 31 at 36 hours -- by far the warmest I've seen in a sounding in the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I don't think 1" QPF is unreasonable, though. Other modeling has supported it at times. That's probably about the max QPF could occur. We never reach the max potential in these situations. Something will occur that decreases those amounts. We usually get less precip than forecast during winter events, especially re the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 But that's also a deep and cold surface layer. Partial thickness values are right on the edge of ZR/IP and IP/ZR at 33/36 before going more in the ZR/IP category by hour 39. You are right that is strong surface cold layer but the warm nose is formidable too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 More ice and less snow. Newest maps from GSP: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 How thick doesn't need to be? If 850 temps were at 0, we'd be talking about snow, but they're only a degree or two above 0, and it's below freezing, and actually very below freezing, for a lot of the surface layer. Perhaps we will be witnessing a new type of precipitation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Anyone else surprised that its only a watch in sw va, specifically Blacksburg/Roanoke area? They haven't done their afternoon update yet. It's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 More ice and less snow. Newest maps from GSP: ] Thanks for sharing. The snow amounts are the same down here. But the ice amount is up... Woah Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I agree, Lookout...I actually put in the new forecast map how I think your area still sees ICE, but there is a VERY high bust factor because I could honestly see yalls area hit hard to be honest. I'm fairly confident that areas north of 85/ne of gainesville will get hit pretty good. Especially, the prime elevation of 1500 as is typical. Here though it's razor thin close. gfs says I should as it gets me below freezing before warming back up. If the surface low comes as far north as the nam/gfs it will probably change to rain here after just a few hours as that far north of a low track will cause warming even at 950mb which is the death nail for freezing surface temps. Also i fear that the late arrival of precip will cause too much warming tomorrow ahead of the precip. if it gets to 40, which seems possible, if not likely, i won't get anything but a cold rain. So Overall i'm not expecting much unless the models back off on such a far north track which seems unlikely at this point. the 18z nam is clearly rain here but it's precip fields seems pretty wacky and seems too slow. Places like atlanta, over toward athens and south seem out of luck for sure at this point though. Of course, this is assuming the low really tracks that far north. I really am surprised at how every model is taking the low on a track that far north. Your research you posted on it was great and i sure don't recall ever seeing a surface low take that sort of track either after a wedge as been established. When I look at wind speeds in the boundary layer, they are late turning east/northeast and aren't that strong (10 knots or less through 950mb) so maybe there isn't the usual amount of resistance and that is why the low can move that far north vs what we would expect to happen..which is it being pushed further south around the wedge or it takes the northern alabama/ne tn route. Even if it's unusual and goes against what we would expect to happen it's hard to ignore every single model showing it take this track though so maybe we see something new. That is the thing with cad/wedges..none of them are exactly alike and are always challenging in their own way. It's what makes them so fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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