Cold Rain Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Someone mentioned earlier that the SREF plumes have a slight warm bias... Therefore, they may be undergoing the snow amounts in favor of more mixed precip? It seems when things start trending away from snow, everything has a bias of one kind or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 SREF mean snow for KAVL is 0.25". Wow. Mean QPF is still near 1.00". That's a lot of sleet and freezing rain for the mountains. Sent from my iPad "If" that would be devastation... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 SREF mean snow for KAVL is 0.25". Wow. Mean QPF is still near 1.00". That's a lot of sleet and freezing rain for the mountains. Sent from my iPad 1/2 inch here with 1.25qpf and a mean max temp of 32. Go figure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yeah, Baja energy not moving out as quickly as it did on 12z run -- over mainland Mexico at 27 hours of 12z -- stuck back in the bay at 21 hours of 18z. 18z NAM is a bit slower and farther west with the storm so far at 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 SREF mean snow for KAVL is 0.25". Wow. Mean QPF is still near 1.00". That's a lot of sleet and freezing rain for the mountains. Sent from my iPad Definitely hope for sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 18z NAM shows a warm nose at 800 mb in HKY at 7 p.m. Monday... That is a really pronounced warm nose compared to GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 High pressure sliding off a bit faster than 12z run. Surface low at 27 hours just a hair south of earlier position, but 850 freezing lines have retreated a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Cold rain I can't quote your post over the phone. I've seen it sleet with temps 18-19 on 2 seperate ovcasions. Once in the 90s here in asheboro and the biggest one was in Rocky Mount mid 80s. Actually had thunder with it. So as crazy as it sounds it does happen. Seen it freezing rain a inch of qpf with a temp of 21 in Dec 2002. I've seen nothing but pure freezing rain @ 18 degrees... BTW- latest Plumes are down to 3 inches here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 new nam says not much snow for raleigh but a huge amount of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 18z NAM shows a warm nose at 800 mb in HKY at 7 p.m. Monday... That is a really pronounced warm nose compared to GFS. It goes way up to the VA border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Latest ice and snow maps from gsp. Notice less snow in the i40 area. Check out @NWSGSP's Tweet: https://twitter.com/NWSGSP/status/567053173362528256?s=09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Nam is implying a lot of snow sleet to start here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Nam is implying a lot of snow sleet to start here. Seems that way here also .. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Warmer 850s already pushing into Western NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 15Z SREF plume for my area is a major IP storm. Mean Snowfall is less than 1".. I notice the rain pops are close to zero now. Looks like a hell of an ice storm. QPF increased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 BF, for mby it's a 3 to 4 inches slab of frozen concrete on the way. Just hoping I can eek out 2, 3 if I'm lucky inches of front end, before the sleet fest gets going. I'll be content with record cold to make it last and another shot this weekend. Certainly beats the shutout. You should get over half foot easy with snow and sleet on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 looks juicy on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Just want to point out, we are less than 24 hours from onset and, for the U.S. 74 corridor from F. City to CLT, the NAM insists on a crippling ice storm with barely a puff of snow/sleet at the start while the GFS is equally insistent on a 4-6 inch snow changing to sleet and perhaps ZR at the end. #crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 BF, for mby it's a 3 to 4 inches slab of frozen concrete on the way. Just hoping I can eek out 2, 3 if I'm lucky inches of front end, before the sleet fest gets going. I'll be content with record cold to make it last and another shot this weekend. Certainly beats the shutout. You should get over half foot easy with snow and sleet on top. The NAM hammers us with precip. It's really close at 850, but looks like mostly sleet after the onset, verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Wow, just when I thought my forecast was good, the NAM comes in and says no. Going to look back over data; however, it is a battle with the GFS and NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 does anyone the ice storm warning criteria for the GSP catchment area? WarningsWFO GSP will issue winter weather Warnings when there is an 80% or greater chance of a hazardous winter weather event meeting or exceeding local Warning criteria WFO GSP will use CAEWSWGSP to issue the following types of Warning products: Blizzard Warning - Sustained wind or frequent gusts greater than or equal to 35 mph accompanied by falling and/or blowing snow, frequently reducing visibility to less than 1/4 mile for three hours or more. Ice Storm Warning - Ice accumulation of 1/4 inch or more. Winter Storm Warning - Heavy winter weather event producing either: a. Heavy snow accumulating 3 inches across the foothills and piedmont and 4 inches across the NC mountains in a 12-hour period, or 4 inches across the foothills and piedmont or 5 inches across the NC mountains in a 24-hour period. Warnings are based on the average value (rounded up to the nearest inch) of the forecast snowfall range. b. Heavy sleet accumulating ½ inch or more. c. A heavy mixed precipitation event in which snow, sleet, and/or ice reach Warning criteria, or an event containing both winter weather and wind hazards in which weather or wind Warning criteria are met. Wind Chill Warning - Wind chill temperatures reaching or exceeding minus 20 in the mountains, or minus 15 outside of the mountains. WFO GSP can also issue Winter Warning products for events where objective Warning criteria are not met if a significant public impact is expected, e.g. early season or holiday travel snow or ice storms. Winter Weather Warnings must be updated at least once every 6 to 8 hours until the event ends, or the Warning is cancelled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 rdu seems to avoid frz rain except for maybe the very end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Wonder if NWS raleigh issues a watch or advisory? I know a lot of folks are hearing "little snow" and not taking it seriously We're already under a Watch out here. I think they'll put you RDU guys under one in their afternoon update. Man, the NAM is over 1" QPF here on the 18z run. Hell of a storm. Probably 4"+ of snow/sleet (mostly sleet) with that much QPF. Pingermageddon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 18z NAM looks like lots of freezing rain for RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Wonder if NWS raleigh issues a watch or advisory? I know a lot of folks are hearing "little snow" and not taking it seriously They'll issue watches, if anything, and change them to warnings or advisories. Also, I have to throw out the obligatory, take the NAM QPF output with a big grain, unless you love disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for the mountains, foothills, and piedmont in NC and advisories for parts of SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 rdu seems to avoid frz rain except for maybe the very end Map shows a 5C warm nose coming into RDU at 850, have to think that is a freezing rain sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I would think the nam would have a better handle on the warm nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Nam keeps wanting to warm the midlevels with each successive run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 rdu seems to avoid frz rain except for maybe the very end 18z NAM looks like lots of freezing rain for RDU Well, glad to see there's no confusion or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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