wxduncan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Courtesy of Brad Panovich: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Brad posted a nice video briefing. He says that the models really can't be trusted b/c they do not handle the very cold air at the surface that well.... So he thinks there will be more of a problem with frozen precip due to the surface air being so cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 Euro looks a little south of the 00z run out to 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Looks like the Euro is a tick south early. 4-6" in Brad's map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Well guys and gals. Pay attention to the dewpoints in the Carolina's. Most locales in SC are single digits to single digits below zero. KCHS at noon has dropped to 1 with 37 current temp. I'm telling you diabatic processes are going to wreck model temp outputs substantially and force more adjustments on low placement. wpc's graph about 3 this am was quite interesting even for the Carolina's on Wednesday as well. I know that will change again and so will modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 Everything is a tick south on the 12z Euro...but not enough to make a difference. You can tell the models are struggling with the wedge in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwupstatewx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Unless I am reading that wrong, all it really shows is the temp trumps rate. I read it to mean higher rate, lower accretion per hour (with temp as a variable). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The ukmet is a very good model, esp at h5. However it's not as hi res as the euro or para, even nam. So it misses the microclimate factors dealing with toppgraphy, wedges, downs loping etc. Feel free to correct me. But like the globals they all get you to the game, but you have to start getting on the cam and hi res models at some point tonight in order to work out the back yard details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The Euro looks like snow to sleet for N NC. Very cold at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 More on the video soon, but here is my thoughts on paper Thanks for posting Chris. I think this is an extremely logical map. The eastern sections of the I-20 corridor are sitting in the low 30s right now with dewpoints below 0. It will be hard pressed to move that cold air out of the way quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Navgem and cmc look much better. GFS came in colder too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Well guys and gals. Pay attention to the dewpoints in the Carolina's. Most locales in SC are single digits to single digits below zero. KCHS at noon has dropped to 1 with 37 current temp. I'm telling you diabatic processes are going to wreck model temp outputs substantially and force more adjustments on low placement. wpc's graph about 3 this am was quite interesting even for the Carolina's on Wednesday as well. I know that will change again and so will modeling. I agree with the bolded...mby sits at 33 with a dp of -5 with full sun. Impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Well guys and gals. Pay attention to the dewpoints in the Carolina's. Most locales in SC are single digits to single digits below zero. KCHS at noon has dropped to 1 with 37 current temp. I'm telling you diabatic processes are going to wreck model temp outputs substantially and force more adjustments on low placement. wpc's graph about 3 this am was quite interesting even for the Carolina's on Wednesday as well. I know that will change again and so will modeling. Your right, the DP is 1 at Hatteras with a temp in the mid 20's that's pretty insane, the DP at Wilmington is -5......and its not rebounding at all if anything its holding strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I think the Euro is too far north with that snow accumulation. I would move the southern edge about 50 miles.. Have the 1 inch down toward southern Johnston county and harnett. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Current wetbulb values across the region. I Would keep an eye on this (bookmark the link) as we progress into the overnight. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17&parm=swbt&underlay=1&source=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Well guys and gals. Pay attention to the dewpoints in the Carolina's. Most locales in SC are single digits to single digits below zero. KCHS at noon has dropped to 1 with 37 current temp. I'm telling you diabatic processes are going to wreck model temp outputs substantially and force more adjustments on low placement. wpc's graph about 3 this am was quite interesting even for the Carolina's on Wednesday as well. I know that will change again and so will modeling. I was wondering about that. FAY at 1 p.m. is 30 with DP of -9. I anticipate things changing as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I can't imagine those dews will be that extreme by the time precip starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Current 5H placement Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Good to see the Euro not amping up the WAA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 I can't imagine those dews will be that extreme by the time precip starts. Isn't it more about how cold the air is....so it would force the low further south?...and it would be harder to breakdown the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Well guys and gals. Pay attention to the dewpoints in the Carolina's. Most locales in SC are single digits to single digits below zero. KCHS at noon has dropped to 1 with 37 current temp. I'm telling you diabatic processes are going to wreck model temp outputs substantially and force more adjustments on low placement. wpc's graph about 3 this am was quite interesting even for the Carolina's on Wednesday as well. I know that will change again and so will modeling.You think the models can't handle dynamic processes and evaporative cooling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Courtesy of Brad Panovich: Based on the latest Euro, GFS, and NAM, the bigger amounts might need to shift further north again, well into Virginia. South of I-40 in NC is a dusting to an inch. North of I-40, 1-3". The best snows will be across KY, VA, and WV. Bigger story that's unfolding is a damaging ice storm for most of NC. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Isn't it more about how cold the air is....so it would force the low further south?...and it would be harder to breakdown the cold air. Yeah you're definitely right. I was thinking about it more from a wet bulb standpoint. Wet bulbs won't be in the teens down toward Fayetteville when the precip starts, will they? That seems extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Can anyone provide a little more euro information with regards to precip amounts, track of the low, and temperatures? It would be great if you could compare this run to the 0z and also to the other 12z modeling. I'm on model overload! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 Can anyone provide a little more euro information with regards to precip amounts, track of the low, and temperatures? It would be great if you could compare this run to the 0z and also to the other 12z modeling. I'm on model overload! Honestly, it's probably time to be looking more at the NAM/RGEM and then to the RAP tonight to see how everything is unfolding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I read it to mean higher rate, lower accretion per hour (with temp as a variable). I didn't. I read higher rate, lower percentage of accretion, but still more of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Wow in Kentucky. Needs to slide about 200 miles south. Snow dance anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12z Euro is colder by a good 20-30 miles. Even 00z kept the Triangle AOB freezing for the duration, but the 12z doesn't even bring Wake County into the above freezing air anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wv_central+/24h/ There is a second low that has formed west of the pacific/baja low. What does a non amateur or amateur with good access to and understanding of models think? my very vague amateur thoughts: There are some chances it could change the speed or direction of the system or vice versa that if it does not keep sinking south, follow behind or otherwise create a similar setup if it strengthens much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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