WidreMann Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Well, the Ukie is colder and a little less amped than the 00z. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 UK continues to move north. Nice. It'll Miller B for sure. But I would think that type of track would limit precip in central NC.It's not actually moving north. It's a little weaker, a little further south and east and a little colder than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm sure some of you remember as I do the sleet storm sometime in the late 80s - about 4 inches of pure sleet as I recall. Better that than zr of course. It sets up like concrete. Slippery as hell, slow to melt. What's not to like? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12z GGEM very similar to the 12z GFS except the GGEM has more punch on the precip as the low moves across at 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 UK continues to move north. Nice. It'll Miller B for sure. But I would think that type of track would limit precip in central NC. It drops about 25mm throughout NC. Some spots higher. Basically an inch of qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It drops about 25mm throughout NC. Some spots higher. Basically an inch of qpf. What do 850s look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaySat.php?region=MGM&isingle=multiple&itype=vis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Wow, the 12z NAVGEM looks great. Great trends today! Great run for much of NC on the front-end. The Triad and foothills look like all snow to me (Or close to it). Lines up well with the GFS and GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It's not actually moving north. It's a little weaker, a little further south and east and a little colder than 00z. Thanks Widre and Brandon. The map posted above looked north of the 0z to me and fit with the commentary of way north and west. I'll take your word for it. I can't see the 0z right now. Sounds like a big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Looks like rain at ahn per gfs/nam decoded data. Might be a front end burst of sleet. Just NE of there is probably where the transition will start. For instance GSP appears to be all ip/zr w/ close to an inch of qpf. This will be a very nasty icestorm where the precip is predominately zr. Thanks. I'm in that region. Typically we get hit by the cad. Obviously this one has a mind of its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 WPC Discussion: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd PAIR OF SHORTWAVES DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. TODAY/MON BAJA ENERGY SHEARING OUT TO THE EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST TUE A.M.SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES ON MONSURFACE LOW TRACKING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST ON TUE~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z UKMET AND 00Z ECMWFCONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGEAFTER SEVERAL ENSEMBLE CYCLES OF A WEAKENING TREND TOWARD THEFLATTER ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS...A MARKED SHIFT IN THE 00Z/15 ENSEMBLEPACKAGE HAS SHIFTED BACK TO THE PREVIOUS EDGE OF THE ENSEMBLESPREAD REGARDING A SHORTWAVE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THECURRENT ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOW SIMILAR SPREAD TOYESTERDAY...BUT THEY ARE JUST DISPLACED TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIEDSIDE OF THE CURRENT MODEL SPREAD.LOOKING AT THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO BE TRACK FROM THE FOURCORNERS TO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES TONIGHT...THE 12Z NAM/GFS ARE ABIT FLATTER THAN EVEN SHORT TERM FORECASTS FROM THE 00ZNMM/ARW...13Z HRRR...14Z RAP. HOWEVER...THESE SHORT TERM MODELSSUPPORT A 00Z ECMWF/UKMET BLEND THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 1PERIOD. **ALL** OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SHARPERWITH THIS FEATURE SINCE YESTERDAY...AND MAY STILL BE TRYING TOCATCH UP TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.DUE TO THE CHANGES SEEN AND TRENDS...WE WILL BE LEANING TOWARD THEMORE AMPLIFIED CAMP...BEST SUPPORTED BY THE 00ZECMWF/UKMET...WHICH IS AGREED UPON BY THE 00Z ECMWF MEAN.CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE INSTABILITY IN THE MODELS ANDSIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Can any of the models really be trusted even in this short a time period?? Perfect example last night no advisories or warnings in our area for high winds just started watching chris justus on wyff at 6:15 and he showed the model wind forecast for our area with the clemson area maxing out at 25mph gusts and then diminishing after 9pm. All the wind warnings were above us in the mountains I live about 15 miles north of clemson and no sooner did he show that graphic and our power was knocked out. The wind was horrible, I have lived in this area close to 40 years and have never seen a pro-longed wind event anything close to that. We had wind gusts that were easily over 60mph for several hours that even had our house shaking. I went out for a short time period and you could hear trees falling and in the distance you I saw the flash of a couple of transformers exploding. Our power finally came back on at 6:30am this morning so, needless to say after last night ordeal I don't think any of these models can be trusted. GSP finally gave out the advisories and warnings for our area around 9:30pm last night after the event was well underway for several hours. This is all quite irrelevant as models can be better or worse at different things at different times and in different scenarios. You should have also posted this in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Wow, the 12z NAVGEM looks great. Great trends today! Great run for much of NC on the front-end. The Triad and foothills look like all snow to me. Ah, yes.. follows the trend of tampering the WAA surge with the initial wave that moves up west of the Apps and getting the coastal transfer going faster so that big slug of precip that comes up over TN then moves east right over us as the "new" low center takes control. Looking at the 850 frzg line it runs from CLT to RDU when the heaviest precip moves through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Thanks Widre and Brandon. The map posted above looked north of the 0z to me and fit with the commentary of way north and west. I'll take your word for it. I can't see the 0z right now. Sounds like a big hit. I don't remember the exact location on the 0z ukie but it looked north to me also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Thanks Widre and Brandon. The map posted above looked north of the 0z to me and fit with the commentary of way north and west. I'll take your word for it. I can't see the 0z right now. Sounds like a big hit. http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=ukmet&map=na&run=00〈=en&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 MEX MOS is incredibly cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yeah, the UKMET is really far north. Looks to be an outlier at this point. Probably a bad ice storm for the CAD regions, though. The lead wave 5h vort max is now tracking from Kentucky into West Virginia on the GFS and CMC and even north of that on the NAM. That should take the core of the heaviest precip north as well. Overall, I would go with a light frz rain event here in Charlotte Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 here's the rdu metegram for ukmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GGEM is acceptable, but the UKMET is still sleet to rain here. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Looks like the Ukie is definitely colder at the surface, then. The 00z run had RDU get into the 40s. 850s also look a good deal colder than the 00z's absolute torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 MEX MOS is incredibly cold OMG that's cold. Single digit highs are only a county or two away from me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 A large spread in the freezing line and depth of the cold layer between the 12z NMM and ARW for the upstate. Take a look at the P-types... http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/COMPRAD4_12z/cloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Definitely a cooling trend on the 12z models, but not a lot. 12z Euro will be very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwupstatewx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 For those of us in the freezing rain zone currently (NE GA, Upstate SC, Parts of NC), here's a helpful graphic from KILM on ice accretion (based on their data, but we can extrapolate). Looks like for us, the heavy precipitation rates may save a "catastrophic" ice storm, at least for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Keep in mind the ukmet is easliy the warmest model and is still mostly ip/zr for the duration (looks like it rises above freezing at the sfc around 12z tuesday). that said, i think it's off its rocker. The euro last night showed no hints of warming us up at the sfc until tues afternoon.. To me this looks solidly all frozen in the Triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 OMG that's cold. Single digit highs are only a county or two away from me. Where do you access that? Always wondered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 More on the video soon, but here is my thoughts on paper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 More on the video soon, but here is my thoughts on paper Nice map! Is that 3-6 inches for the NC mountains? I'd certainly be happy with that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 For those of us in the freezing rain zone currently (NE GA, Upstate SC, Parts of NC), here's a helpful graphic from KILM on ice accretion (based on their data, but we can extrapolate). Looks like for us, the heavy precipitation rates may save a "catastrophic" ice storm, at least for now. Unless I am reading that wrong, all it really shows is the temp trumps rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm sure some of you remember as I do the sleet storm sometime in the late 80s - about 4 inches of pure sleet as I recall. Better that than zr of course. I think you are thinking of Feb 1987. Much of NC and upstate SC had sleet with that one. It started as rain here and went to sleet with temps dropping all the way to 24 here. Of course it would have been even colder north of I-40 in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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