beanskip Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 You must be looking at wrong maps. 850 0C line way up north of I-40 at 42 hours. BOOM on the GFS! Stays snow for the I-85 corridor the entire storm. At least the 850's cooperate. Pretty strong low at 1006 through GA. WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 BOOM on the GFS! Stays snow for the I-85 corridor the entire storm. At least the 850's cooperate. Pretty strong low at 1006 through GA. WOW! The NAM is probably 2-5" of snow before going over to sleet, as well, so not bad there. Yeah, nearly all snow profile throughout the storm for I-40 north... A sleety mix gets involved in the latter half from there to I-85.. but much better. It's getting a better handle on the CAD wedge that will be in place and the evolution of the low as the baja energy gets entrained. Yeah, very interesting/good trend there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 You must be looking at wrong maps. 850 0C line way up north of I-40 at 42 hours. The map I am looking at (the Model Center) shows it south of I-40 at hr 42. It jumps north at hr 45, but by that time the storm is basically out of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12z GFS snow totals (caveat for sleet/ZR): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 From the model center, hr 42, for KGSO on the 12z GFS. Looks like the mid-levels look good. No nasty warm layer at h7 or anything. Precip ends basically right here, so any further warming is meaningless. The surface is cold, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The map I am looking at (the Model Center) shows it south of I-40 at hr 42. It jumps north at hr 45, but by that time the storm is basically out of here. Crap. I clicked on the 2m temps. The blue line I thought was the 0 at 850 was actually the freezing line at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This is just beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The map I am looking at (the Model Center) shows it south of I-40 at hr 42. It jumps north at hr 45, but by that time the storm is basically out of here. At GSO, I-40 is also I-85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Amazing the iterations in this storm. I've never seen a storm like this. Wonder what the GFS will show for temps for NC if it falls like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Can't count the number of times I've done that. It IS, however, a snowier solution than the NAM, for sure. And tons of QPF. Crap. I clicked on the 2m temps. The blue line I thought was the 0 at 850 was actually the freezing line at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 At GSO, I-40 is also I-85 Good point! The hr 36 and hr 39 soundings at KGSO are definitely easily all-snow. The hr 42 is very borderline, obviously, but by that point the storm is finished, more or less. I would guess CLT and RDU pull 1-3" of the front-end with a lot more N/W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I think qpf may amp up a little more bf its over. That stj is going to get carved out by this lead wave, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12z RGEM is very similar to 6z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This is just beautiful Not really.....a lot of us would like to see it further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I don't think I would be under a WSW , if SC was out of the game!? Isohume and the gang, had last nights data from models , still pulled the trigger! Nam just gave me nearly .90 of QPF , as freezing rain Getting super close in for GSP *especially E and NE of downtown Greenville* I could see a 1/4-1/2" of ZR Maybe more. Sorry, should have clarified. The rest of the state maybe a little sleet/rain at the initial, then all RN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Just a quick question: when people refer to the I-85 corridor on this forum, how far west/east are you implying? I live about a mile on either side of 85 at both my parents' houses in Durham and Orange counties, so I don't know if I should get excited when people say "crush job for I-85!" I have a feeling that some posters think of the "I-85 corridor" as meaning the triad and not more central parts of the piedmont, so it would be helpful to clarify this. Typically I see it used as a line between CLT and GSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 No, you can get hours and hours and hours of sleet. It happened just here last March. Sleet just requires that the near-surface BL be cold enough and deep enough. Freezing rain occurs when the near-surface BL cold is more shallow and/or marginal. This could easily be a storm where someone in NC pulls an epic pingerfest with 2-4" of accumulation given enough QPF, IMO.Yea man. I can recall a storm in Connecticut when I lived there. It was 17 and sleeting like a mofo for hours and hours. We ended up with an astonishing 6" of sleet. It really does suck to have all that qpf and get that because the snow would've piled up like crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This is just beautiful Beauty is in the location of the beholder ... if there's time for another tick or two south, it would be a beauty queen for many! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Canadian RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Here is the GFS-13km hi-res snow maps. Remember the 1 degree GFS which is the op GFS in the model center is lower resolution, this map accounts for the terrain/etc better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I see that the GFS is colder initially, for y'all up there. But it does go over to IP and or ZR very quickly. Thats too much WAA for it not to go over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yea I85 also runs from Ga thru Sc, and Nc. It would help to mention what state you're talking about when you say I85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Here is the GFS-13km hi-res snow maps. Remember the 1 degree GFS which is the op GFS in the model center is lower resolution, this map accounts for the terrain/etc better. I just can't see how there is that much snow. Maybe I will be wrong, but it would have to hit early and very very hard for even 2-4" to fall up there. The WAA with this will be no joke, as you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Also the GFS-13km 72 hour precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Getting super close in for GSP *especially E and NE of downtown Greenville* I could see a 1/4-1/2" of ZR Maybe more. Sorry, should have clarified. The rest of the state maybe a little sleet/rain at the initial, then all RNI think all the counties in the upstate of SC above the 85 corridor could be looking at the least 1/4" of Ice, probably more like .5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Hmm, that Hi-Res GFS seems to have more precip. I am not familiar with it. Looks like the RGEM is more north than the GFS. Probably more NAM-like. Looks like a decent shot at a few hours of good snow, then over to pingers for HKY/GSO. High-res models just being overamped? (kidding) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yea I85 also runs from Ha thru Sc, and Nc. It would help to mention what state you're talking about when you say I85So long as they extrapolate the model data for me...I'm happy to extrapolate locations for myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GFS is a bit colder than the NAM. Still has a NASTY ice storm from LIT-MEM-BNA. North MS and HSV starts as some ZR/IP then QUICKLY goes over to Rain. NE GA* like NE NE GA to The upstate get lit up with ICE. It changes over to Rain in NE GA, but stays all ZR in the upstate. That would be a VERY bad ICE Storm. NC starts as some snow, could be a 1-3" type of snow, then quickly over to IP and or ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Also the GFS-13km 72 hour precip That's crazy how those 2" amounts just hit a wall...any idea why those don't make it into the northern mtns of NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 That's crazy how those 2" amounts just hit a wall...any idea why those don't make it into the northern mtns of NC? cad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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