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Feb 16th/17th/18th Winter Wx


burgertime

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The 12z GFS was a great run for our area The only questions would be how much mixing would occur. At 108 the low resolution p-type shows ice over the Triangle, but snow before hand. After this the low would be pulling away with a possible return to snow. Basically (as we all know) many things are still possible.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=108ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_108_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=dom_precip_type&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150213+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

Yeah, it looks close though. I haven't looked at the upper level or surface maps yet. Would love to see a bombing low off CHS, but I don't think we're going to get that with this setup.

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CLT can't get warmer than +1 at 850's...hard to tell though with my maps. Butkif will be interesting. 

 

Here's the 12Z GFS sounding at 99 hr (warmest frame) compliments of COD weather http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/For NAM and GFS and maybe short range models they have built in soundings - just click on your location on the map and the sounding will pop up in another browser.

12_GFS_105_35.24,-80.67_skewt_ML.gif

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I feel like we'd want precip in here as soon as possible to lock in and reinforce the wedge, if HP is moving out. If we don't get that, the wedge could erode faster than we'd like to see.

 

Yeah I'd agree with that.  It looks on the 12Z to get cranking at 102 which is late afternoon tuesday, the warmest part of the day.  And the high is peace out into the Atlantic at that time.  Temps at the surface our marginal. 

 

GREAT track on this run though, but I hate not having a reinforcing high in the NE.  I believe though the CMC/Euro/UKMET had a better high placement IIRC the last couple runs.  Hope that comes to pass

 

6IoO1Dnl.png

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According to the 12Z GFS looks like Raleigh tries to stay all snow though event except for mixing in or turning over to sleet during a 2-4 hour period (warmest sounding shown below - all others remain at or below freezing). Of course we still have a long ways to go (4.5 days til this sounding..) and things will change. 

12_GFS_108_35.6,-78.47_skewt_ML.gif

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I think SC and GA need to rely on the first wave for frozen precip, I would not bank on the 2nd one doing it, it may be too amplified and warm.  Even the NavGEM does not wash out wave 1 like the GFS does so it may be stronger.

 

Are you convinced there will be 2 waves?

 

The Ukmet has been consistent with bringing out one system Monday night... Not a wave Monday afternoon followed be the storm on Tuesday.

 

I'm struggling to decide how I think this is really going to play out.. lol

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