NC_hailstorm Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 That 492dm PV is a little south of Hudson Bay and nice west coast ridging(576-882)still there. That run is a decent hit anyone in the CAD regions in west/central NC id imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It's a snow sounding, best I can tell. Ran soundings for me just N of CLT and never get above 0 throughout the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The 12z GFS was a great run for our area The only questions would be how much mixing would occur. At 108 the low resolution p-type shows ice over the Triangle, but snow before hand. After this the low would be pulling away with a possible return to snow. Basically (as we all know) many things are still possible. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=108ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_108_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=dom_precip_type&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150213+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Yeah, it looks close though. I haven't looked at the upper level or surface maps yet. Would love to see a bombing low off CHS, but I don't think we're going to get that with this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 CLT can't get warmer than +1 at 850's...hard to tell though with my maps. Butkif will be interesting. Here's the 12Z GFS sounding at 99 hr (warmest frame) compliments of COD weather http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/For NAM and GFS and maybe short range models they have built in soundings - just click on your location on the map and the sounding will pop up in another browser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Ran soundings for me just N of CLT and never get above 0 throughout the column. John, can you please pin this? it'll be easier to find. thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I feel like we'd want precip in here as soon as possible to lock in and reinforce the wedge, if HP is moving out. If we don't get that, the wedge could erode faster than we'd like to see. Yeah I'd agree with that. It looks on the 12Z to get cranking at 102 which is late afternoon tuesday, the warmest part of the day. And the high is peace out into the Atlantic at that time. Temps at the surface our marginal. GREAT track on this run though, but I hate not having a reinforcing high in the NE. I believe though the CMC/Euro/UKMET had a better high placement IIRC the last couple runs. Hope that comes to pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It's a good sounding for CLT. Cold enough and saturated all the way to the 250 level. You'd get better than average ratios with that, even if 850 temps are not that cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 According to the 12Z GFS looks like Raleigh tries to stay all snow though event except for mixing in or turning over to sleet during a 2-4 hour period (warmest sounding shown below - all others remain at or below freezing). Of course we still have a long ways to go (4.5 days til this sounding..) and things will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Valid for 108 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Looks like UKMet runs sfc low through N GA into NC on the neck twisting French site....that's a ballpark, it doesn't have detailed maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Looks like UKMet runs sfc low through N GA into NC on the neck twisting French site....that's a ballpark, it doesn't have detailed maps So is that north of the last run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 There's some confluence! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Looks like UKMet runs sfc low through N GA into NC on the neck twisting French site....that's a ballpark, it doesn't have detailed maps Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Looks like UKMet runs sfc low through N GA into NC on the neck twisting French site....that's a ballpark, it doesn't have detailed maps Sounds like a good track for the foothills and mountains but not so great for Charlotte to Raleigh area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 So is that north of the last run? It may be just a tick south, but need better maps. It was in N Bama last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Looks like UKMet runs sfc low through N GA into NC on the neck twisting French site....that's a ballpark, it doesn't have detailed mapsit's sucks having to wait for the wxbell maps to come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 it's sucks having to wait for the wxbell maps to come out. yeah, they dont even come out to what, 3:30? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 yeah, they dont even come out to what, 3:30?the other day it took till about 530. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Track on UKMet is ArkLaTex to Greenville, SC. You can get it here - http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=fr&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1&stn2_type=anal&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=096 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It may be just a tick south, but need better maps. It was in N Bama last night 0z UKMET wasnt terrible for the region. Big snows for I-40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 UKMet looks moist based on precip at hr72 and 5h look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The UK was a little south, a little slower and maybe a bit stronger than last night. Trying to compare 2 model runs 12h apart with 24h panels is, umm, an inexact science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS Total Snowfall.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I think SC and GA need to rely on the first wave for frozen precip, I would not bank on the 2nd one doing it, it may be too amplified and warm. Even the NavGEM does not wash out wave 1 like the GFS does so it may be stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 CLT.jpg Valid for 108 hrs What site are you using to pull that? I need a good source. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 What site are you using to pull that? I need a good source. Thanks! Plymouth State's website: http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbsnd.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It may be just a tick south, but need better maps. It was in N Bama last night I think the UK must focus on the lead energy, as does the 12z CMC. Small hit for NC and n-GA/SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 UKMet looks moist based on precip at hr72 and 5h look Yea, and I would imagine that it is much colder at the surface compared to the GFS since the event gets here 12 hours faster... Probably a much bigger ice threat for CAD regions on the Ukmet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z CMC is good run for N. Ala and Ga. from Atl north and Western half of SC. Wave continues east but doesn't make the turn. Light precip for NC. The cmc is focusing on the 1st wave it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I think SC and GA need to rely on the first wave for frozen precip, I would not bank on the 2nd one doing it, it may be too amplified and warm. Even the NavGEM does not wash out wave 1 like the GFS does so it may be stronger. Are you convinced there will be 2 waves? The Ukmet has been consistent with bringing out one system Monday night... Not a wave Monday afternoon followed be the storm on Tuesday. I'm struggling to decide how I think this is really going to play out.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.