beanskip Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Same in Shelby (KEHO) -- 29 or colder at the surface throughout, but 800s from +3.5 to +4.8 during height of precip. Not good. Even in the mountains that's a very stout warm nose. Nearly +5 at 800mb, with surface temps in the 20s. Geez.Sent from my iPad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Same in Shelby (KEHO) -- 29 or colder at the surface throughout, but 800s from +3.5 to +4.8 during height of precip. Not good. Recipe for disaster if heavy precipitation prevails Same for KFQD. Just a tad bit colder at the 850 level during the height of the precip. Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Straight up sleet fest on the NAM. Anyone know how to extrapolate sleet accumulations from QPF? 3:1 or something like that? Text output still showing 29 or below at surface throughout. I dont know about you but living around here anything but liquid is fine with me so ill take it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I like how the GFS is handling the wetbulbs over the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 RAH Briefing: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/briefing/RAH_Briefing_for_February_14-17_events.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Well, the 12Z has begun... I like how the GFS is handling the wetbulbs over the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12 NAM -- Nearly an inch of liquid falls near RDU. . Sure hope this is sleet and not freezing rain. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_054_precip_p24.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=precip_p24&fhr=054&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150215+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=92 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 RAH Briefing: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/briefing/RAH_Briefing_for_February_14-17_events.pdf Key Points: • Models are coming into better agreement, and have trended faster with the onset, with good agreement on precip reaching the western Piedmont by early afternoon on Monday and being completely out of central North Carolina by Tuesday afternoon. It currently appears that the winter storm will be focus around Monday night. • The onset of precip is expected to be all snow Monday afternoon. • Heavier precip will arrive after 7 PM Monday, but warmer air just above the ground will be surging northward toward our area at that time. As such: It appears that the northwest and northern Piedmont may see precip remain all snow through early Tuesday. Areas from Stanly County to the Triangle to Rocky Mount may transition to sleet and freezing rain after midnight. To the south across the Sandhills and southern Piedmont, newest data suggests freezing rain will occur for a large part of the event. • Precip will wind down during the day Tuesday. • Given cold airmass and cold ground, road hazards may develop quickly. Even little amounts of snow may make road conditions treacherous. • A high-impact, cold event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12z NAM cobb output nasty at RDU. 0.97 qpf 0.86 is freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Text output still showing 29 or below at surface throughout. I dont know about you but living around here anything but liquid is fine with me so ill take it!! No doubt. It's nice not to stress the rain snow line. It's insane how close we are to getting crushed. Verbatim per NAM .5" QPF on the southside through 42 with 850s holding maybe until hr 41. Then another .7" most likely sleet. It's really going to be function on how long we can hold those 850s. Potentially 4-12". Realistically though, we are probably looking at a general 2-4" on the southside with around an inch of sleet on top. EDIT: Just looked at the raw output for ORF 4.3" snow, .34 sleet, and .55 frz ra Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12 NAM -- Nearly an inch of liquid falls near RDU. . Sure hope this is sleet and not freezing rain. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_054_precip_p24.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=precip_p24&fhr=054&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150215+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=92 Taken literally probably mostly freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Taken literally probably mostly freezing rain. A total opposite problem than we had last night... light to moderate snow at 44f. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GSP totals .81 with .80" being Freezing rain.... While HKY ges 2.8" of snow and Sleet 12z NAM cobb output nasty at RDU. 0.97 qpf 0.86 is freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Dang! If' I'm reading the NAM soundings correctly for FAY, we spend the entire time below freezing, with a warm nose corrupting things aloft. If that verifies, we're looking at .6 to .75 ice. Not a pleasant prospect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I honestly am still at a loss for words for how much this has changed in last 24 hours. I really am. There might not be much snow south of I-40 on this at all. Matter of fact, any warmer, the I-40 corridor is going to have to deal with some rain issues. NC looks SAFE, for now, from just a rain storm, but looks very very icy with ZR and a poop load of Sleet. GA/SC/AL....lets just hurry this crap up so we can kiss winter *or a lack there of* goodbye. I really feel bad for the people who have to deal will all the negativity this will bring because of the changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I honestly am still at a loss for words for how much this has changed in last 24 hours. I really am. There might not be much snow south of I-40 on this at all. Matter of fact, any warmer, the I-40 corridor is going to have to deal with some rain issues. NC looks SAFE, for now, from just a rain storm, but looks very very icy with ZR and a poop load of Sleet. GA/SC/AL....lets just hurry this crap up so we can kiss winter *or a lack there of* goodbye. I really feel bad for the people who have to deal will all the negativity this will bring because of the changes. Chris, I cant ever remember an event quite like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GFS looks good at 33 for nc the upstate and far NEga Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I honestly am still at a loss for words for how much this has changed in last 24 hours. I really am. There might not be much snow south of I-40 on this at all. Matter of fact, any warmer, the I-40 corridor is going to have to deal with some rain issues. NC looks SAFE, for now, from just a rain storm, but looks very very icy with ZR and a poop load of Sleet. GA/SC/AL....lets just hurry this crap up so we can kiss winter *or a lack there of* goodbye. I really feel bad for the people who have to deal will all the negativity this will bring because of the changes.I don't think I would be under a WSW , if SC was out of the game!? Isohume and the gang, had last nights data from models , still pulled the trigger! Nam just gave me nearly .90 of QPF , as freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDUBRDU Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This may be a dumb question, but which model did the best determing what is actually happening out west right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 gfs all snow for nc at 33. will turn to sleet and frz rain here in the next panel or two im sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 sleet is a self-limiting process anyway, correct? Usually doesn't last too long before changing to FZRA. No, you can get hours and hours and hours of sleet. It happened just here last March. Sleet just requires that the near-surface BL be cold enough and deep enough. Freezing rain occurs when the near-surface BL cold is more shallow and/or marginal. This could easily be a storm where someone in NC pulls an epic pingerfest with 2-4" of accumulation given enough QPF, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 By 39... it's wetter across NC and actually a tad colder at the mid levels I think. A sleety mix by 42... 800mb up to +2C north of CLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 gfs all snow for nc at 33. will turn to sleet and frz rain here in the next panel or two im sure Most to all snow at 39... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Wow, the GFS is an early crushjob snowstorm for I-40 in NC. It's actually colder than last run. Snowing to beat the band from hr 36-39. EDIT: Wow, more snow from 39-42. This is going to be a phenomenal run for I-40 from HKY to GSO! The mid-levels warm thereafter, but by then it's mostly over. Perhaps we end it with a crusting of sleet on top. The Model Center has 8" here. Most, if not nearly all, of that is probably snow (pending soundings). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The NAM says ice and GFS says snow. Figures. The model confusion continues. Will be interesting to see what the Canadian and Euro show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Wow, the GFS is an early crushjob snowstorm for I-40 in NC. It's actually colder than last run. Snowing to beat the band from hr 36-39. EDIT: Wow, more snow from 39-42. This is going to be a phenomenal run for I-40 from HKY to GSO! Yeah, nearly all snow profile throughout the storm for I-40 north... A sleety mix gets involved in the latter half from there to I-85.. but much better. It's getting a better handle on the CAD wedge that will be in place and the evolution of the low as the baja energy gets entrained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Havent checked soundings too closely yet, but GFS looks to have beefed up QPF across NC and it looks a little more sleety than freezing rainy in the triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Clown map has 8+ inches of snow I-85 and west! Let the model battles begin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The GFS is 6 hours faster than the NAM moving precip in.... that makes a huge difference for many as getting precip in faster gives a better chance at snow before the mid levels warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Havent checked soundings too closely yet, but GFS looks to have beefed up QPF across NC and it looks a little more sleety than freezing rainy in the triangle. looks like a good shot at snow as it move in from hr 30 or so to hr 39 where it looks to change to sleet. hard to tell from my crappy maps though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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