strongwxnc Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Ha thanks man. No newsletters here...just idle thoughts. Now we wait and watch to see if NAM ticks south...even 25-50 miles would be huge at this stage. Sent from my iPad CAD in full effect at 33 ! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The western piedmont and foothills of NC look to be in for a doozy (is that a word?) of a storm. Maps from GSP: ] Gladly cash out on that. I assume that is the latest that gsp has put out? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 4am Disco from RNK.... .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...VERY COMPLICATED...WINTER SITUATION SHAPING UP FOR MON-TUE. EVERYDAY OVER THE PAST WEEK THE VARIOUS COMPUTER MODELS HAVE OFFEREDDIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK...TIMING...ANDPHASING OF A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TRACKING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OFTHE DEEP EASTERN U.S. TROUGH...AND A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAMSYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE ARKLATEX REGION. THE ENTIRE GAMUT OFSOLUTIONS HAS BEEN OFFERED BY THESE MODELS OVER THE PAST WEEK. ASGREATLY FEARED...THE ULTIMATE SOLUTION NOW APPEARS TO BE HONED INON OUR CWA. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO...GENERALLY FOLLOWING ABLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF RESULTS IN A STRONGER SFC LOWDEVELOPING ACROSS AL/GA MONDAY AFTERNOON TRACKING FROM ATL-GSP-NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NC BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS TRACK HASSHIFTED FURTHER NORTH THAN YESTERDAY. SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC LIFTIS NOTED BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK MON ACROSS EAST TN/FAR SWVA...SPREADING INTO THE REMNANT ARCTIC AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THEMAIN SFC LOW DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING/AFTERNOON. ONCETHE LOW INTENSIFIES ACROSS GA/SC...IT WILL ACCELERATE TOWARD THECOAST MONDAY EVENING...WHICH IS WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULDAFFECT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. UNLIKE ALL EVENTS WE HAVE HADPREVIOUSLY THIS WINTER SO FAR...THIS EVENT WILL LIKELY BRINGSIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF THE CWA.WWD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSELY GIVEN ALL OFTHE UNCERTAINTIES. P-TYPE IS NOT AN ISSUE THIS FAR NORTH WITHPARTIAL THICKNESSES WELL BELOW CRITICAL VALUES EVEN FAR SOUTH OFOUR CWA. THIS WILL BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT. AND...WITH SFC TEMPS WELLBELOW FREEZING AT THE BEGINNING AND LIKELY NEVER RISING ABOVE ATANY TIME...THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY ACCUMULATE ON UNTREATED ROADS ANDSURFACES. THUS...WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...HAVE ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH FOR ALL OF THE CWA...EXCEPT THAT PART NORTH OFI-64...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WESTERN GREENBRIER...WHICH WASINCLUDED BECAUSE OF SUBSEQUENT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND ADDITIONALACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE SNOW IN THE NON-WATCH COUNTIES...BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 4 INCHES.HONESTLY...SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK A LITTLE HIGH AND I WOULD ADMIT THATTHAT THEY ARE ON THE HIGH END AT THIS POINT...BUT THIS IS SOMEWHATOF A COMBINATION MILLER A/B SCENARIO AND THERE IS CERTAINLY PLENTYOF DYNAMICS...MOISTURE...AND LIFT TO SUPPORT THE ADVERTISED SNOWAMOUNTS. THE WATCH MAY WELL NEED TO BE EXPANDED NORTH TO INCLUDEALL COUNTIES...BUT AT A MINIMUM THOSE COUNTIES WILL RECEIVE ANADVISORY WITH LATER FORECAST PACKAGES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Gladly cash out on that. I assume that is the latest that gsp has put out? Sent from my iPhone As far as I can tell, yes. Here's the link to the site location: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/stormtotal/stormtotal.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 That's a lot of low's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Nice jot SE in the qpf at 36. Max over middle and southern TN Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 WSW has been hoisted for some of our northern areas.... Winter Storm WatchURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA622 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2015.ARCTIC AIR SETTLING OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH STRONGGUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS. ARCTIC COLD TOREMAIN IN PLACE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEMTRACKS NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION ACROSS THEAREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO MUCHOF THE REGION BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING...CONTINUING INTO TUESDAYMORNING. ANOTHER SURGE OF BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOWFOR WEDNESDAY.SURRY-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOBSON...STUART...ROCKY MOUNT...BEDFORD...MARTINSVILLE...DANVILLE...LYNCHBURG...APPOMATTOX...SOUTH BOSTON...KEYSVILLE622 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2015...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY......WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHTUESDAY MORNING MAINLY ALONG WESTERN SLOPES...* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.* LOCATIONS...PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA...MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...INCLUDING SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA.* HAZARD TYPES...VERY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES THIS MORNING. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING.* WIND CHILL READINGS...AS LOW AS 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO.* TIMING...VERY STRONG WINDS AND VERY LOW WIND CHILLS THROUGHTHIS MORNING. SNOW BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON... CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS...VERY LOW WIND CHILL READINGS CAN RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN HAZARDOUS...SNOW COVERED ROADS AND HIGHWAYS.* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH... DECREASING AFTER 10 AM THIS MORNING.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS THIS MORNING... WARMING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THIS AFTERNOON.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDSWILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT INFROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT ANDGLOVES.A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 CAD getting in going in the mountains and foothills by 36hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Looks like a qpf bomb on the nam through tn. 850s just se of the I-85 corridor in nc waiting on the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Already has a LP center marked off the SC coast. Midlevels are colder over the W piedmont by 36. CAD sig getting sniffed out. I like the idea of the low transferring east under the CAD wedge, through S GA and SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This run is much slower with the primary low...still west of GA at 00z Tues, would mean a later start for Central NC if correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 High is a little stronger on that Buckeye map above!? Nitpicking, but it's 1022, yesterday I believe it was modeled in the 1018 range? Need all help we can get! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Man, definitely a delay in precip onset for CLT area -- remember yesterday when models were showing precip starting at 10 am.? This run has precip coming in NINE HOURS later. Also, some significant 500 mb changes on this run vs. 6z. Baja low moves a bit more quickly. Energy diving down from Canada is held back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 South movement at 39.. Max qpf into south east TN SW nc, NEga 2m temps above 32 in sw nc.. 30 line runs south from Asheville to the nc/sc line towards rock hill Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Man, definitely a delay in precip onset for CLT area -- remember yesterday when models were showing precip starting at 10 am.? This run has precip coming in NINE HOURS later. Also, some significant 500 mb changes on this run vs. 6z. Baja low moves a bit more quickly. Energy diving down from Canada is held back.Maybe back to the two-wave look on this run, with energy held back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Sleet bomb over a lot of NC at 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 yea, barely any snow for rdu at the onset then quick changeover to sleet before it moves out. better than frz rain i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 NAM is a raging ice storm for NC....actually pops a low just north of FL @45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Looks to be mostly ip/fzrn for most of nc at 42. Gonna be a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It'l be interesting to see how much the wave over idaho can carve out of the STJ. I think it's further west than modeled. It would prob' produce a little bit warmer system aloft, but may actually cause more QPF. The fluid dynamics of the atmosphere are amazing. I noticed on the vw that the baja low is shifting slightly east now in the last few frames, probably in response to that Idaho wave. The entire thing looks to be developing into something big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Alternate GSP maps.....looks like a good match based on what is known now . Awesome respect for the difficult job the GSP office has with the many challenges in the western NC / SC forecast area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 NAM is a raging ice storm for NC....actually pops a low just north of FL @45. Another run, another look.. Madness continues! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12z NAM is nasty ice storm for Triangle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Got a double barrel low going on at 45... It's a little messy with the boundary layers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Triad news14 map Check out @TWCNews_CLTWX's Tweet: https://twitter.com/TWCNews_CLTWX/status/566949615044284416?s=15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Although the axis of heaviest precip shift south, I believe the lowest pressures did not. It looked about the same or slightly nw of the previous run based on the surface map and 850s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 euro model for Charlotte north Check out @TWCNews_CLTWX's Tweet: https://twitter.com/TWCNews_CLTWX/status/566949615044284416?s=09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Straight up sleet fest on the NAM. Anyone know how to extrapolate sleet accumulations from QPF? 3:1 or something like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Straight up sleet fest on the NAM. Anyone know how to extrapolate sleet accumulations from QPF? 3:1 or something like that? Generally a 3:1 ratio is standard for sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12z NAM is nasty ice storm for Triangle Even in the mountains that's a very stout warm nose. Nearly +5 at 800mb, with surface temps in the 20s. Geez. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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