Feb 16th/17th/18th Winter Wx

[superjames1992]

People just better pray we don't get the inch of qpf the ukmet/ggem are showing. 2 inches of snow/sleet followed by 3/4" of zr would be insane.

 

With 925 mb and the surface pretty cold, do you think we might deal with a raging sleet storm instead?

[Shawn]

I'm sorry guys.  I jinxed this event last night I think about the changes to take this area out of the game.  Looks like it shifted your way now.

 

I don't wish an ice storm on anyone.  I know some of you guys get really into any type of extreme weather; Be it ice, snow, sleet.  When you experience a devastating ice storm in person, it's not as fun anymore and you wish it away.

 

I personally haven't experienced a truly devastating ice storm myself, but Tony has taught me to keep away from them at all costs.

 

The Euro has shifted North again, along with all other guidance.  Even the GEFS made a shift North with the SLP track.  I do believe anywhere between NE GA - Upstate SC and into NC could deal with a lot of sleet and ZR when all is said and done.

 

The idea of being all rain in CLT has some merit, but I think it's all just being talked about because the trends have not been your friend for a lot of snow tonight.  Things can still change, but with such a wide array of modeling showing ZR & Sleet for some of you guys, I have my doubts.

 

One thing that irks me to no end is what are the models seeing differently than even 6 hours before?  The 18z GFS was a good hit, the 21z SREF was still a good hit..the 18z NAM was a good hit..  what changed so dramatically at least down this way into KCAE?

[5statewx]

To help quite the meltdowns happening by some here, the 00z CMC ENS remains south. 

[Marion_NC_WX]

Wow euro has the low up in southeastern TN at 48. Anyone have what it does at 60 on Plymouth?

 

 

@ 54 sitting between Augusta and Greenville SC, then off-shore by 60 off VA Capes...

[jburns]

 

I'm sorry guys.  I jinxed this event last night I think about the changes to take this area out of the game.  Looks like it shifted your way now.

 

I don't wish an ice storm on anyone.  I know some of you guys get really into any type of extreme weather; Be it ice, snow, sleet.  When you experience a devastating ice storm in person, it's not as fun anymore and you wish it away.

 

I personally haven't experienced a truly devastating ice storm myself, but Tony has taught me to keep away from them at all costs.

 

The Euro has shifted North again, along with all other guidance.  Even the GEFS made a shift North with the SLP track.  I do believe anywhere between NE GA - Upstate SC and into NC could deal with a lot of sleet and ZR when all is said and done.

 

The idea of being all rain in CLT has some merit, but I think it's all just being talked about because the trends have not been your friend for a lot of snow tonight.  Things can still change, but with such a wide array of modeling showing ZR & Sleet for some of you guys, I have my doubts.

 

One thing that irks me to no end is what are the models seeing differently than even 6 hours before?  The 18z GFS was a good hit, the 21z SREF was still a good hit..the 18z NAM was a good hit..  what changed so dramatically?

 

 

Atmospherically, nothing has changed.  The storm is going to go and do exactly what it was going to do 10 days ago, 5 days ago, today and tomorrow. It's the human part that is the problem.

[Marion_NC_WX]

With 925 mb and the surface pretty cold, do you think we might deal with a raging sleet storm instead?

 

 

Not trying to answer the question for Brandon but looking at the maps, there is a tongue of -4 to -5 at 925mb running along the NC/VA line and extending down my way and even some -1 down into Lake Lure (Rutherford County ) and Tryon (Polk County)

[HKY_WX]

With 925 mb and the surface pretty cold, do you think we might deal with a raging sleet storm instead?

I would say yes over the northern tier. But at some points the euro has temps at the sfc near -3c while 850's are 5 to 6 c. That's usually zr, but it's a toss up. I need to get bufkit out tomorrow and go over it. You never know until you look at the entire column.

[Buddy1987]

@ 54 sitting between Augusta and Greenville SC, then off-shore by 60 off VA Capes...

Thank you sir. James if your still awake looking forward to your snowfall outputs from the EURO.

[superjames1992]

I would say yes over the northern tier. But at some points the euro has temps at the sfc near -3c while 850's are 5 to 6 c. That's usually zr, but it's a toss up. I need to get bufkit out tomorrow and go over it. You never know until you look at the entire column.

 

Thanks!  Looks like the Euro warms 850s to +3C here at one point, so maybe there's hope we stay sleet.  I don't have access to Euro soundings, unfortunately.

 

Thank you sir. James if your still awake looking forward to your snowfall outputs from the EURO.

 

Looks like 9" up your way.

 

Anyone got qpf total for gso on euro and ukie for greensboro. Thnx

 

We kind of get split by the heaviest precip with the Euro really amping it up, but we end up with 0.5-0.6" QPF.  If the Euro is wrong with the split, it would be more, though.  No other model shows it.

 

The UKMET looked like around an inch or maybe more.  The WB maps will be out in an hour or so, hopefully, so I can see for sure.  Then we can see what kind of front-end dump it had.

[Marion_NC_WX]

Anyone got qpf total for gso on euro and ukie for greensboro. Thnx

Euro QPF runs in the .5 to .7 range from close to Roanoke Rapids moving west to the Triad include GSO and then angles SW parallel I-85 through Charlotte Metro...

 

Numbers go up towards 1 inch QPF in the mountains west of Asheville

[Tullioz]

For those wanting to see the 0z Euro snowfall map DT has it posted along with his thoughts on his Facebook page. 

[superjames1992]

For those wanting to see the 0z Euro snowfall map DT has it posted along with his thoughts on his Facebook page. 

 

I will post it here.  Usually, EuroWx maps are pretty good, but 3" looks overdone here based on what I saw.

 

https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk

 

 

Sounds like DT isn't buying it, FWIW...

[Smoked]

This one is far from over folks, yes the last few model runs have trended north but I think we are still in for one more big move (still on the roller coaster...) with the upcoming 12Z suite. What that is is anyones guess.. but the northern stream energy was still likely not sampled great at the 00Z run and has a lot of high terrain over the Rockies to cover and the cut-off low is still over the ocean and has the high terrain of Mexico to conquer. Not to mention the complex interplay between the two pieces of energy on the other side. Will there be a singular system or two and if there are two which one is stronger? I know we have leaned towards one or two with the first being strongest but I'm not so sure this is set in stone yet.

 

Then as other posters have noted the medium and long range models aren't equipped to properly handle mesoscale features such as cold air damning (may be more insitu CAD).

 

This all being said I agree the latest trends are worrisome.

 

Edit:

Side note, although NAM shifted a bit more north on the 00Z it did maintain mostly if not all snow for the triad area. I imagine we'd be getting into medium and eventually short range models ball park so maybe this is something to keep an eye on.

[Dunkman]

For those wanting to see the 0z Euro snowfall map DT has it posted along with his thoughts on his Facebook page. 

I don't think there's more than 2" of snow anywhere in NC on the 0z Euro outside of the mountains. There probably isn't more than 1" outside of the foothills. The snowfall map shows a lot of snow while the 850s are a torch.

[superjames1992]

I don't think there's more than 2" of snow anywhere in NC on the 0z Euro outside of the mountains. There probably isn't more than 1" outside of the foothills. The snowfall map shows a lot of snow while the 850s are a torch.

 

We do get some snow to start.  There's a six-hour panel with precip moving in and 850s at -7C.  The following panel 850s are at +3C with a decent amount of precip in between.  I'd guess it actually shows 1-2" going over to IP.

 

That is, unless EuroWx has a way to read 850s in between the six-hour panels, in which case the 3" of snow could be possible, I guess, though I don't think likely.

[superjames1992]

Thanks, wasn't sure if it was allowed or not. 

 

I don't think there's usually an issue sharing a paid map that someone else already shared.  I think DT has permission to post those and to be shared.

 

There's also some StormVista maps from the Euro on DT's Facebook page if anyone wants to take a look.

 

Anyways, it won't be long until the SREFs and NAM hit again!  Another emotional rollercoaster is upcoming!  I'll probably stay up for the SREF, NAM, and hopefully the UKMET (when it comes out on WB), then hit the sack.  I have to be up a little early tomorrow, so I won't make it to the 06z GFS!

[Marion_NC_WX]

Here's a question for discussion purposes, would like for our board vets and red-taggers to answer...

 

 

The Euro and its timing is about 6-8 hours later than the American guidance. What would be the consequence if the Euro were to line itself up in future runs and come in at the same time as the American Guidance?

Is this 6-8 hours the difference in allowing the confluence up north to move out prior to arrivial of the system?

I do think we can pretty much dismiss any notion that this storm will be a 2-part storm. Seems pretty clear cut now that this will be one lead piece of energy spawning low pressure.

[Shawn]

I don't think there's usually an issue sharing a paid map that someone else already shared.  I think DT has permission to post those and to be shared.

 

There's also some StormVista maps from the Euro on DT's Facebook page if anyone wants to take a look.

 

Anyways, it won't be long until the SREFs and NAM hit again!  Another emotional rollercoaster is upcoming!  I'll probably stay up for the SREF, NAM, and hopefully the UKMET (when it comes out on WB), then hit the sack.  I have to be up a little early tomorrow, so I won't make it to the 06z GFS!

 

Unless DT is paying for commercial access (to use on air, media etc) then he isn't allowed.  Keep in mind, that would be a HEFTY fee.

 

Nobody respects the copyright of any of these images I've learned.  Like the UKMET on Wxbell or Euro data is not supposed to be shared at all.  Ryan has made it very clear that it's okay to share everything on his site (in moderation) other than the 0.125 Euro/precip and the new UKMET.

 

I do feel like there will be a slight shift South again on the 12z runs or even 00z runs tomorrow (when its too late), but for this KCAE area, I doubt it will be close to enough.

[wxduncan]

Just updated:

 

 

 

[superjames1992]

Unless DT is paying for commercial access (to use on air, media etc) then he isn't allowed.  Keep in mind, that would be a HEFTY fee.

 

Nobody respects the copyright of any of these images I've learned.  Like the UKMET on Wxbell or Euro data is not supposed to be shared at all.  Ryan has made it very clear that it's okay to share everything on his site (in moderation) other than the 0.125 Euro/precip and the new UKMET.

 

I do feel like there will be a slight shift South again on the 12z runs or even 00z runs tomorrow (when its too late), but for this KCAE area, I doubt it will be close to enough.

 

10-4.  I know not to share the Euro/UKMET maps, so I don't do that anymore.  I wonder why a model map provider (specifically StormVista) hasn't cracked down on DT?  He's shared those maps for years.

 

BTW, for I-40, if you want a snowy model to hug, it's the 00z NAVGEM.  You're looking at around 8" of snow going over to sleet at the end.  Yes, yes, trust in the NAVGEM, you crazy bugger!

 

---

 

Duncan,

 

Very interesting maps!  They shifted them north, but they don't seem to buy the extreme shift north yet, with N NC still in the 40% 4" probability and 10% 8".  Interesting update.

[Smoked]

Here's a question for discussion purposes, would like for our board vets and red-taggers to answer...

 

 

The Euro and its timing is about 6-8 hours later than the American guidance. What would be the consequence if the Euro were to line itself up in future runs and come in at the same time as the American Guidance?

Is this 6-8 hours the difference in allowing the confluence up north to move out prior to arrivial of the system?

I do think we can pretty much dismiss any notion that this storm will be a 2-part storm. Seems pretty clear cut now that this will be one lead piece of energy spawning low pressure.

 

A couple thoughts on that:

1. A slower approach may allow for high pressure to the north to push east out of a favorable cold air damning location and/or weaken

2a. With relatively higher heights out ahead of the slower Euro it would be less suppressed in both location and intensity which would promote it to move north sooner

2b. Additionally, the higher heights make a Miller B less likely imo (we probably want a miller B at this point to keep the track suppressed)

[Marion_NC_WX]

A couple thoughts on that:

1. A slower approach may allow for high pressure to the north to push east out of a favorable cold air damning location and/or weaken

2a. With relatively higher heights out ahead of the slower Euro it would be less suppressed in both location and intensity which would promote it to move north sooner

2b. Additionally, the higher heights make a Miller B less likely imo (we probably want a miller B at this point to keep the track suppressed)

 

 

With that said, do you think the timing of the Euro will ultimately cave to the America suite or vise versa?

[superjames1992]

The 03z SREFs look a little more suppressed than the 21z run, I think.  We'll see what the plumes have to say.  There still seems to be a ton of spread among the members.

 

Of course, I am not saying they're good, either.

 

EDIT: Actually, the plumes are dreadful, so nevermind.

[Ollie Williams]

Ice Accumulations

 

 

[Marion_NC_WX]

Pretty obvious the Weather Prediction Center sees the Euro Operational as an outlier...I would assume those maps were also done with the 0z run in mind?

[superjames1992]

Holy crap, the UKMET is out on WB now and it's a bad, bad storm for the I-40 corridor.  The Meteocentre panels didn't do it justice.  Looks like significant snow to start, then over to lots of ice.  Temperatures never make it above freezing (at least on the six-hour panels) for the Triad with 1.2" of QPF!  That's probably several inches of snow and then a lot of something else.

 

We get crushed from hr 48-54.  At hr 48, 850s are around -8C and by hr 54 they are at +2C or +3C or so.  In the interim, a good three-quarters of an inch of liquid equivalent falls.  Wow.

 

CLT and RDU appear to be largely spared.  The battlegrounds set up in a way that reminds me of last March's ice storm in a way.  HKY looks borderline, but probably gets significant icing.

 

 

James, a friend and I were talking earlier.. and we still don't understand why it's so easy for the low to track into a wedge.  I understand some of the modeling is trying to scoot it away, along with the 50/50 and that would make sense.  But it almost seems like some of the modeling kept the high/5050 around long enough and still tracked it North into it.  I know Larry is extremely against it, what do you think?

 

I saw a post from pack about it possibly being the SE ridge.  IDK if that was a joke or not.. but looking at it... it was trying to flex slightly to maybe slow down the energy enough to cause the over amp?

 

You know, in a sense I think it's probably not possible as shown, but at the same time I'm not sure.  I guess we'll see.  I don't like to say that models are "impossible" as I generally don't think I have the requisite meteorological knowledge to say on these matters.

 

I do know that in past experience, I have never seen a LP run smack dab into a wedge like that, but I guess there's a first for everything.  At this point, I would have to lean against the UKMET doing what it did, though.

[Shawn]

 

You know, in a sense I think it's probably not possible as shown, but at the same time I'm not sure.  I guess we'll see.  I don't like to say that models are "impossible" as I generally don't think I have the requisite meteorological knowledge to say on these matters.

 

I do know that in past experience, I have never seen a LP run smack dab into a wedge like that, but I guess there's a first for everything.

 

Maybe the HP is just retreating too quick on the frames we see and it makes it seem like there is a true wedge in place.  That's a good deal that you have the UKMET on your side up there. It's handled this whole situation better than everything else.  It was first with the South solution and then first with the North.

 

`100% respect that model now.  FWIW, it goes to 144 hours on WXBELL and it has no frozen precip here in KCAE through then.  Sad.   I will always look to it within 144 hours and doubt other models from here on out (at least in the Winter).

[Marion_NC_WX]

3z SREF plumes now posted...  1 inch (snow) for Asheville to Hickory...

 

Just two runs ago they were in excess of 7.5 inches for both locations...

 

QPF is around .60 for KHKY and .86 for Asheville. Sounds like a whole lot of ice going on there!

 

 

EDIT: .75 QPF for GSO with about 2.2 inches snow accumulation.

[superjames1992]

3z SREF plumes now posted...  1 inch (snow) for Asheville to Hickory...

 

Just two runs ago they were in excess of 7.5 inches for both locations...

 

QPF is around .60 for KHKY and .86 for Asheville. Sounds like a whole lot of ice going on there!

 

Yeah, they do look awful... Crap.  We'll see what the NAM does.

 

EDIT: Sorry, I was looking at the wrong city.  LOL, I am losing it.  The mean is about 2.2" here, a bit down from last run.  Mean QPF is only 0.60", which is lower than I was expecting.

 

P-type pops tend to indicate snow to sleet to ice.  Rain pops are down on this run compared to the last run.

 

Does the UKMET look bad for the I-40 corridor in TN also ?

 

Nah, it's mostly rain there.

[WxBlue]

03z SREF plumes were actually worse than 21z...