Jet Stream Rider Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 We aren't going to know precisely where the energy sets up until the parcels from the northern and southern sources eject east. And that's through the grinder around the base of that monster trough. Its chaotic. Its basically shear city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Well, then the 00z UKMET drives the surface low right over central NC, so there's that... Game set match, LOL.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm not sure what's happening on the back side here but I'm intrigued to see the temperature maps, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Gonna be cold the next day though. Maybe some puddles will freeze overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm not sure what's happening on the back side here but I'm intrigued to see the temperature maps, that's for sure. P1_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif Yeah, this looks like it would be a great set up if the arctic temps were set up at that hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 With the UKMET, at hr 48, the snow/other precip line is from CLT to FAY with snow entering the western Piedmont, so even with that horrible track, it is snow to start, at least. Subfreezing 2m temps go from CLT to south of RDU. No doubt it warms up after that, though. Snow-to-rain, I suppose. Looks like surface temps are only below freezing at hr 60 in NW NC... say maybe from Winston-Salem N/W? I actually thought it would be worse with that track. My guess is that there's some sort of Miller B-esque transfer occurring between the hr 48 and 60 panels on Meteocentre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Ukmet would be a heavy burst of fronted snow 3 to 4 inches, then sleet of about 2 to 3 tenths inch q pf, then back to 1 to 3 inch snow on back side in triad. Surface temps in low 20s at their warmest before falling back into teens on backside. I'd take this in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Holy crap at the UKMET!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This is why it's so portent to me to have a good high pressure in a location that can help us. We clearly don't here. Hopefully, the entrenched arctic air is enough, although the UK doesn't think so for this area, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Courtesy of Dr Ryan Maue Ryan (@RyanMaue) 2/14/15, 23:29 GIFS: monster trough event reinforced by filament from Greenland Z500 anomaly: weather.graphics/gfs_2015021500… Tropopause: weather.graphics/gfs_2015021500… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Ukmet would be a heavy burst of fronted snow 3 to 4 inches, then sleet of about 2 to 3 tenths inch q pf, then back to 1 to 3 inch snow on back side in triad. Surface temps in low 20s at their warmest before falling back into teens on backside. I'd take this in a heartbeat. The bad part is it's still 36-48 hours before start time, and I doubt the northward trend stops. what a turn around today in models! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Sounds like the Mtns should get absolutely plastered then with this track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gordonheimer Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Ukie showing alot of precip ! I think SE VA will go snow to rain.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm not sure what's happening on the back side here but I'm intrigued to see the temperature maps, that's for sure. P1_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif What is that, about a 300 mile jog North over the past 24 hours? Inconceivable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Sounds like the Mtns should get absolutely plastered then with this track. Idk. There might be some mixing in there cutting our totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Idk. There might be some mixing in there cutting our totals.Even for the northern mtns? Surely not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Even for the northern mtns? Surely not That Ukie track looks good for mtns and immediate adjacent foothills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The UKMET has been showing the same scenario for 12+ runs and a new one comes out and we all jump ship? Nothing has changed, models just like to phase systems more near the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I believe there really is a limit to how far this thing can no northward or has that changed now because of the confluence 50/50 low etc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 That Ukie track looks good for mtns and immediate adjacent foothills Would you say its good for around Morganton? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Thanks man. I wonder why height rises mysteriously show up now. Oh well. Buddy's happy again! Not good for us As we've discussed, it just seems to be a common bias for all models to represent the height pattern farther south in the medium range progs than what actually occurs, but especially so in absence of a good blocking regime (-NAO). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Buddy's happy again! Not good for us As we've discussed, it just seems to be a common bias for all models to represent the height pattern farther south than what actually occurs in the medium range progs, but especially so in absence of a good blocking regime (-NAO). This is some sick mind game that we have to play every 6 damn hours. It's clobbers me then it shifts so far south I get .01" of qpf while griteater gets the goods then back to me lol I'm gonna have a heart attack over this stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 BF, Imo things have pretty much converged and this is how it will play out. I hate we want be 100 percent snow, espeacilly me, but the warning shots for this to get a little amped up where showing 2 days ago. It was just a matter of time before we ended up where we are now. When you where sweating the suppression, we just had weak - slider shortwaves, throwing moisture over artic air. But once it became clear the Baja was gonna inject or influence one of the shortwaves you know the north trend correction along with waa where coming. This is a classical winter storm for our area. I hate it will screw the I 20 crowd and most likely nail some folks with good bit of frzng rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I believe there really is a limit to how far this thing can no northward or has that changed now because of the confluence 50/50 low etc? The NE low is there, but it is high-tailing it out of the way and the confluence axis is well north. I think a bit more north trend is still possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This is some sick mind game that we have to play every 6 damn hours. It's clobbers me then it shifts so far south I get .01" of qpf while griteater gets the goods then back to me lol I'm gonna have a heart attack over this stuff. I hear ya, it's all part of the ebb and flow. The snow producing portion of any storm isn't all that large when you think about it, so minor storm track changes have huge implications to us weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 BF, Imo things have pretty much converged and this is how it will play out. I hate we want be 100 percent snow, espeacilly me, but the warning shots for this to get a little amped up where showing 2 days ago. It was just a matter of time before we ended up where we are now. When you where sweating the suppression, we just had weak - slider shortwaves, throwing moisture over artic air. But once it became clear the Baja was gonna inject or influence one of the shortwaves you know the north trend correction along with waa where coming. This is a classical winter storm for our area. I hate it will screw the I 20 crowd and most likely nail some folks with good bit of frzng rain. with that UKmet track we go over to plain rain right? I bet the northward trend is not done yet. If the Euro goes north any from it's 12z run I say over for most of us.... By over I mean major winter storm, might be a little mix at the start... If any more north trend. JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 with that UKmet track we go over to plain rain right? I bet the northward trend is not done yet. If the Euro goes north any from it's 12z run I say over for most of us.... By over I mean major winter storm, might be a little mix at the start... If any more north trend. JMONo, you aren't going over to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Any update on the GEFS? I assume it went north as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 No, you aren't going over to rain. Can you post the 2M temps from UKmet? I haven't seen any temps shown from that model, I know it's loaded with moisture! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 with that UKmet track we go over to plain rain right? I bet the northward trend is not done yet. If the Euro goes north any from it's 12z run I say over for most of us.... By over I mean major winter storm, might be a little mix at the start... If any more north trend. JMO Mt. Airy still has sub-freezing surface temps at hr 60. I think you might be below freezing the entire storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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