DixieBlizzard Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Bottom line, it's going to be hard to ever trust numerical models in the pattern like we have had this year. Models cannot be used as a forecasting tool efficiently if they are this wrong within 2 days of an event. Maybe next year the models will luck into a pattern they can sniff things out more than 24 hours in advance. Sincere good luck to you guys in NC and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 There is no lee side shadow on the GFS, and seriously doubt there will be when all is said and doneSorry man I should've been more specific in relation to the nam. I thought it looked cooky but just wanted to ask. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Sorry man I should've been more specific in relation to the nam. I thought it looked cooky but just wanted to ask. Thank you. The only way I see a lee side minimum is if there is a transfer to the coast. GFS doesn't do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Guys may be a stupid question but are the models possibly suffering with any sort of convective feedback or is the lee side effect in full force in relation to getting this precip over the mountains? The models are probably picking up on the Wedge and overdoing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 With the exception of the last 4-6 hours of steady precip, this is all snow West of 321 in Western North Carolina. Quite honestly it is a near perfect run for my specific area but knowing the GFS it will change once again at 6z. Surface temps are amazing though during the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 With the exception of the last 4-6 hours of steady precip, this is all snow West of 321 in Western North Carolina. Quite honestly it is a near perfect run for my specific area but knowing the GFS it will change once again at 6z. Surface temps are amazing though during the event. The way the gfs depicts this storm it would be a big hit for the northern foothills, but the nam seems to be hinting at lee side down sloping. I think we need to root for the consolidated SLP idea of the gfs/ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The northern stream energy contributing to this winter storm should be moving into British Columbia tonight, where it will be accurately sampled for the first time. Tomorrow is when I think we can begin to take models more seriously. The 0z GFS was too far north for anything significant across N GA/SC/SE NC, so we'll see how this goes over the coming day. Good luck to those upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This is going to be a sleet fest if the gfs is right for a lot of NC with a transition zone of zr over southern NC. I think the mountains and northern foothills may be the only ones who escape sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 With the exception of the last 4-6 hours of steady precip, this is all snow West of 321 in Western North Carolina. Quite honestly it is a near perfect run for my specific area but knowing the GFS it will change once again at 6z. Surface temps are amazing though during the event. Steady as she goes, Marion. The temperature never even approaches 30 for the next several days. Amazing stuff. Here's the TT version of the 00Z GFS snowfall, but I'm not sure how Cohen's algorithm handles sleet and freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cg2916 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Steady as she goes, Marion. The temperature never even approaches 30 for the next several days. Amazing stuff. Here's the TT version of the 00Z GFS snowfall, but I'm not sure how Cohen's algorithm handles sleet and freezing rain. For comparison, here's the 12Z at the same hour: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Can anyone explain the reason that all of the guidance is now shifting the system north? Is it the NE storm not being as strong? The 50/50 being farther north or pulling out too early? The arctic airmass not being as strong as modeled? There has to be a reason for it, other than just that it always inevitably happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Here are the WPC probabilities for greater than 4 inches of snowfall by 18Z Tuesday. I'm not sure how often they update these, but the timestamp says 2044Z, so it shouldn't have the most recent guidance incorporated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I hope the GFS is drunk right now. Not looking good at all on that model run for Metro ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Early returns suggest the 00z GGEM will come north. It was pretty far south at 12z, so that was almost a foregone conclusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I hope the GFS is drunk right now. Not looking good at all on that model run for Metro ATL. No offense but I don't see ATL getting anything but a cold miserable rain out of this. The model guidance isn't in your favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Now 0z gfs is in line with the Nam, that the upstate now looks like a heck of a ice storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The 00z NAVGEM looks like a big hitter (for NC and upstate SC), especially for I-40. 850s don't hit I-40 until hr 60 and by then the damage has been done. Lots of precip. Surface temps are below freezing for most of NC for the duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 No offense but I don't see ATL getting anything but a cold miserable rain out of this. The model guidance isn't in your favor. the CMC and the NAM gave us a major ice storm today, but maybe they won't this run... We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GEM looks further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 No offense but I don't see ATL getting anything but a cold miserable rain out of this. The model guidance isn't in your favor. Atl isn't looking so good. I'm sweating it here in Dawsonville. This is the last hole. Cmc is coming north I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Can anyone explain the reason that all of the guidance is now shifting the system north? Is it the NE storm not being as strong? The 50/50 being farther north or pulling out too early? The arctic airmass not being as strong as modeled? There has to be a reason for it, other than just that it always inevitably happens. CR if you compare the 12z GFS with tonight's 00z GFS, the difference is that the initial lead wave is sharper, and most importantly, there are height rises across the Ohio Valley...we can't have any kind of height rises there. The height pattern has to stay flat in order to keep this south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GEM looks further north Yep looks like a few hours of ZR/IP at the beginning for North GA but then it goes over to a cold rain. NE GA might be a different situation though. Amazing how horribly this has trended for wintry weather in Atlanta over the past 18 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 CR if you compare the 12z GFS with tonight's 00z GFS, the difference is that the initial lead wave is sharper, and most importantly, there are height rises across the Ohio Valley...we can't have any kind of height rises there. The height pattern has to stay flat in order to keep this south Thanks man. I wonder why height rises mysteriously show up now. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yep looks like a few hours of ZR/IP at the beginning for North GA but then it goes over to a cold rain. NE GA might be a different situation though. Amazing how horribly this has trended for wintry weather in Atlanta over the past 18 hours... NE GA is still snowing and quite a bit of it at hr 48. Moderate snows moving into the NC western Piedmont. NW SC is also snow all the way down close to CAE so far (they will soon change over obviously). EDIT: The GGEM is a big hit for I-40. Looks like it's still snow at hr 54 with half-inch of QPF having fallen. Great run for SW VA. Looks like the GGEM might try to crank the coastal. Looks like 4-5" of snow and 0.5-0.1" IP for I-85. Decent ice storm for RDU. The snow line is roughly I-85 on the Canadian. SW VA is the best spot with 6-7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Atl isn't looking so good. I'm sweating it here in Dawsonville. This is the last hole. Cmc is coming north I'm sure. Like I said, the trends killed us today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 UKMET definitely came north some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 MAV MOS gives CLT a 4 on snow accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Well, then the 00z UKMET drives the surface low right over central NC, so there's that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Well, then the 00z UKMET drives the surface low right over central NC, so there's that... It's also stronger and a little quicker. I mean it isn't a huge change in the grand scheme of things but for a lot of people it isn't going to be good. With it being stronger maybe the front side will have more precip. Also, I'd think there will be a chance for some wraparound snow. edit: No temp maps yet but it could really be like rain for everyone south of VA at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Again, big trend I see is weakening (and northern placement) of the HP from run to run. 12z Canadian at 72 hours had 1021 High over N.Y. state. 0z run has 1019 high over Maine. It's no wonder 850 line is well north on the 0z run vs. 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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