packbacker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The RGEM is a tick north through 36, maybe by 25-50 miles or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 County I live in NW of Atlanta (Cobb) has already cancelled school for Monday. They are going to be regretting making that decision so early if things continue to trend towards plain old rain! Last year's fiasco is definitely causing people to be super cautious! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 County I live in NW of Atlanta (Cobb) has already cancelled school for Monday. They are going to be regretting making that decision so early if things continue to trend towards plain old rain! Last year's fiasco is definitely causing people to be super cautious! Yeah, that's kind of the point I was making too. Last year is still on the minds of many and I am sure region-wide too. Let's face it, based on the guidance when they made these decisions, it was the right call to make. No one can help that the models will change 4 times in the next 24 hours and could change a lot based on what I have seen this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 RGEM is really north through 48, yikes. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemreg&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=036&fixhh=1&stn2_type=anal&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=048 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 County I live in NW of Atlanta (Cobb) has already cancelled school for Monday. They are going to be regretting making that decision so early if things continue to trend towards plain old rain! Last year's fiasco is definitely causing people to be super cautious! Things still look good for an ice storm. No reason already to be calling governer mistakes and school decisions. We are still getting ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 00z RGEM at hr 48... Looks like we're starting to see a model consensus build towards what the UKMET has been showing for days. Using short-range models at long leads like this is probably not wise, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The 00Z 4K NAM shows a nice precipitation minimum in the lee of the Apps. What's new, huh? Why can't we get the look from just 12 hours ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 00z RGEM at hr 48... Looks like we're starting to see a model consensus build towards what the UKMET has been showing for days. Using short-range models at long leads like this is probably not wise, though. Yeah, but if it was snowy we would be clutching on to it. A little scary the NAM/RGEM match up with the Euro at 48. You don't see that often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yeah, but if it was snowy we would be clutching on to it. A little scary the NAM/RGEM match up with the Euro at 48. You don't see that often. Not sure if it's that bad... We'll have to wait for better maps. Isn't that the snow/ice line down along the NC/SC border? The track looks identical to the UKMET. EDIT: The RGEM does have a stronger SLP, though, which probably isn't good as it would mean more WAA. EDIT #2: Here's a better RGEM map at the end of its run. The low looks to be moving due east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Things still look good for an ice storm. No reason already to be calling governer mistakes and school decisions. We are still getting ice. I have to disagree. There is no guarantee that N Metro gets ice at this point. It would seem logical to follow trends more than anything else and the trend north, at the very least, has begun. Can things change? Of course but there is no guarantees of anything except precipitation and that's about it. I certainly didn't call mistakes either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Not sure if it's that bad... We'll have to wait for better maps. Isn't that the snow/ice line down along the NC/SC border? The track looks identical to the UKMET. EDIT: The RGEM does have a stronger SLP, though, which probably isn't good as it would mean more WAA. Still front end snow for RDU and you, guessing I40 and north. http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Raleigh&mod=gemreg&run=00&var=std〈=en&map=us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 That is a model error, there will be no lee side shadow with this setup. There's certainly a chance that the foothills get shafted. With the west to east movement it's very similar to NWFS or a clipper but not as extreme. I think it's modeled correctly at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The 00Z 4K NAM shows a nice precipitation minimum in the lee of the Apps. What's new, huh? Why can't we get the look from just 12 hours ago? If this is a overrunning event why is that showing a down sloping in the lee? I thought it usually happens with lows jumping to the coast? But it's not surprising at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 From Brad P: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The 00Z 4K NAM shows a nice precipitation minimum in the lee of the Apps. What's new, huh? Why can't we get the look from just 12 hours ago? I've always wondered how accurate that is. I know it's very much a thing when we have clippers diving in from the NW angle. If this storm moves west to east, even with the SLP well to our south, does it still have THAT much of an effect? Shouldn't that storm pump enough moisture to eliminate such a minimum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Still front end snow for RDU and you, guessing I40 and north. http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Raleigh&mod=gemreg&run=00&var=std〈=en&map=us P-types, hour 48: Awful run for Tennessee. I don't think any other model shows rain in central TN like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GFS has initialized let's see what trick is up the sleeve tonight for the new magician lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Not sure if it's that bad... We'll have to wait for better maps. Isn't that the snow/ice line down along the NC/SC border? The track looks identical to the UKMET. EDIT: The RGEM does have a stronger SLP, though, which probably isn't good as it would mean more WAA. EDIT #2: Here's a better RGEM map at the end of its run. The low looks to be moving due east. http://i59.tinypic.com52.gif Tend to agree with Larry about a due east moving SLP track, obviously a ENE track is what our better events have. Thinking if this trend continues we are looking at 1-2" snow with some ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 There's certainly a chance that the foothills get shafted. With the west to east movement it's very similar to NWFS or a clipper but not as extreme. I think it's modeled correctly at this point. I agree. We need that LP to track through GA and SC up to Hatteras. It can't transfer to the coast as modeled on the 4K NAM or we get robbed of moisture. If this a overrunning event why is that showing a down sloping in the lee? I thought it usually happens with lows jumping to the coast? But it's not surprising at all. I think that's exactly what the 4K NAM shows if you go through the panels. It jumps and cuts out some precip. I've always wondered how accurate that is. I know it's very much a thing when we have clippers diving in from the NW angle. If this storm moves west to east, even with the SLP well to our south, does it still have THAT much of an effect? Shouldn't that storm pump enough moisture to eliminate such a minimum? If it jumps and redevelops rather than tracking continuously, that's exactly the effect that it will have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 EDIT #2: Here's a better RGEM map at the end of its run. The low looks to be moving due east. As it should given the big 50/50 low and overall low heights over the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I just pushed for the degree all in moment. High ratios would make it worthwhile for this guy. I don't buy the nam cutting off the precip on an east to west trajectory with a low to our south southwest still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Is that the Canadian moving north a bit too? Leary of the pending 0z gfs folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Given the NAM's bias for being a little bit warmer than normal this would be a really good run for most of NC. Gets most of NC with .50. This probably seems more reasonable. Burger I'm more use to the NAM having a cold bias at both 850 and sfc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Hasn't the high pressure been trending weaker over the last couple days --- now down to just 1024 mb when the storm moves into the Carolinas? As it should given the big 50/50 low and overall low heights over the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Not sure if it's that bad... We'll have to wait for better maps. Isn't that the snow/ice line down along the NC/SC border? The track looks identical to the UKMET. EDIT: The RGEM does have a stronger SLP, though, which probably isn't good as it would mean more WAA. EDIT #2: Here's a better RGEM map at the end of its run. The low looks to be moving due east. James, It would be very surprising based on history if there ends up being a surface low moving eastward from north AL through N GA (or even C AL through C GA) and up to the wedge of cold air/pushing it. Also, would it make much sense? Why would the low do that? If anything, I'd expect it to dissipate while west of the wedge and there could easily be a new near SE coast low. If the low is to move eastward to the SE coast and remain primary, I think that would likely need to occur down in the southern third of GA. Maybe it would move ESE from AL into S GA. We'll see! Opinion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I just pushed for the degree all in moment. High ratios would make it worthwhile for this guy. I don't buy the nam cutting off the precip on an east to west trajectory with a low to our south southwest still. Cobb output (which I don't put much stock in) has us as high as 19:1 ratios with 2m temps around 15 degrees. Fun to look at, nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The RGEM looks like it wants to transfer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I seem to remember a lot of events where there was a precip max to the west of the apps with precip moving into KY, WV, SW VA and there would be a definite dry slot east of the mountains. However, I think these were most all miller b's. If this isn't a miller b, then this may no hold. However, the NAM definitely showed redevelopment off the coast. So why would this not be a miller b? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Look at WV lots. of moisture with this one!I We are looking at wave of moisture then maybe a phase. http://www.weather.gov/satellite#wv Yes. Thank you! Noticed before on wv that the Baja low was spinning up a good plug of moisture. Hope we get the phase low off the se coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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