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Feb 16th/17th/18th Winter Wx


burgertime

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Anxious to see what the doc says. I think the GFS could either be an outlier or its on to something. Guess well find out by sunday. The sooner that first wave gets here the better, just hope it dont fizzle out before hand.

Edit: love the look on the GFS wouldn't take much more interaction to give many a HECS.

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@108! Lots of snow ATL north and NC....this is a good run!! 

 

This is what a lot of the 0z and 6z GEFS members were showing.  Sfc temps are pretty warm for AL/GA/SC but this is a self-admitted bias of the new GFS.

 

 I would expect to see a nice wide swath of snow across N MS/N AL/N GA/N SC/TN/W & C NC and up into the mid atlantic.

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I absolutely love where I sit right now. I may be getting the grazing right now but at 105 that heavy precip is just training just to my south. I feel it may shift north in the coming cycles. That was a hell of a run everything was almost money there with all the interactions etc..

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We need the GFS with just more precip. Have the first wave give a few inches to the southern parts of the region that don't usually see snow and then the coastal will bury those of us in the more favorable locations. If we're only going to get one storm this year may as well go all in.

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I feel like we'd want precip in here as soon as possible to lock in and reinforce the wedge, if HP is moving out. If we don't get that, the wedge could erode faster than we'd like to see.

The 12z GFS was a great run for our area The only questions would be how much mixing would occur. At 108 the low resolution p-type shows ice over the Triangle, but snow before hand. After this the low would be pulling away with a possible return to snow. Basically (as we all know) many things are still possible.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=108ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_108_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=dom_precip_type&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150213+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

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