BullCityWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Hoping this will be snow to sleet to snow scenario as the low blows up as it turns the corner. Yeah, I think we can manage that. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Jess guys. You scared the heck out of me. I'm behind on the map updates, but it does look nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 Given the NAM's bias for being a little bit warmer than normal this would be a really good run for most of NC. Gets most of NC with .50. This probably seems more reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 well all models seem to be on board with precip starting monday afternoon for most of us lasting thru tues night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yeah, I think we can manage that. We'll see. I know this I'm sitting here in Weaverville just outside of Asheville with a dusting on the ground. Thought at best I might see a flurry. NAM usually underdoes the cold in these situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Given the NAM's bias for being a little bit warmer than normal this would be a really good run for most of NC. Gets most of NC with .50. This probably seems more reasonable. Totals at 60 . Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Am I looking at the right NAM? I seem to see snow hitting St. Louis and missing TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Given the NAM's bias for being a little bit warmer than normal this would be a really good run for most of NC. Gets most of NC with .50. This probably seems more reasonable. I agree burger, but NAM also tends to overdo precip if I'm not mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I know this I'm sitting here in Weaverville just outside of Asheville with a dusting on the ground. Thought at best I might see a flurry. NAM usually underdoes the cold in these situations. You're not too far from me, then. Weaverville always get something from these NWFS events if there's enough moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Usual clown map caveats, yadadada... I-40 looks like mostly or all-snow, at least. CREDIT: AmericanWx Model Center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm figuring the NAM will try to bring in act 2 looking at the 5h map at 48hrs, but i'm not sure I'll buy it until the EURO jumps on board w/ that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Usual clown map caveats, yadadada... I-40 looks like mostly or all-snow, at least. CREDIT: AmericanWx Model Center ] Love the lee side shadow... X-) Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 James, Looking back at all major RDU and HKY winter storms since 1950, I can't find a single instance of a low moving eastward through N or even C AL/GA. Not one. I looked very hard for one. I saw some move eastward through S GA and a decent number move NE west of the Apps often with Miller B redevelopment near the SE coast. But there's zero historic support for the NAVGM track together with a widespread major NC winter storm. Conclusion: it is out to lunch. The Carolina Crusher (1/2000) was from a low moving ESE through S AL/GA by the way. So, either the track will shift back south or there won't be a major NC winter storm imo. Larry, we don't often get them with this much cold, dry air in place either. Seems like that ought to drive the path further south. I don't recall many that warmed up with this much cold, dry air ahead. One of my biggest heartbreaks was In the 70's, pretty early, I'd guess, we had a low coming up, and Heavy Snow Warnings...and got nothing. Didn't like the cold air in place, jumped, and I saw nary a flake, or pellet. stayed up all night waiting, heavy snow moving east out of Texas, and then poof..out of a freakin' heavy snow warning, lol. That one still hurts bad even now. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Cut the NAM totals in half and we are still looking at a good hit by our standards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm figuring the NAM will try to bring in act 2 looking at the 5h map at 48hrs, but i'm not sure I'll buy it until the EURO jumps on board w/ that idea. I thought so too, but just a hair late. That would be nice is that trends better the next few runs, still a ways to go for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Cut the NAM totals in half and we are still looking at a good hit by our standardsCut the nam in half in the foothills and you have a couple flurries instead of a handful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Look at WV lots. of moisture with this one!I We are looking at wave of moisture then maybe a phase. http://www.weather.gov/satellite#wv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 From looks of the latest NAM, the upstate is looking more and more like a Ice storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm figuring the NAM will try to bring in act 2 looking at the 5h map at 48hrs, but i'm not sure I'll buy it until the EURO jumps on board w/ that idea. HKY, are you talking about the miller b reformation on the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Cut the nam in half in the foothills and you have a couple flurries instead of a handful That is a model error, there will be no lee side shadow with this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Dalton (DHN) is my closest reporting SREF station and has about 8-10 hours of sleet followed by about a 12 hour period of ZR...then rain. Gone from a mean of about 4 inches of snow to a little over 1. Looking forward to seeing if Larry's research can be used with this event. I really think there is no way this thing cuts to KY/OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 HKY, are you talking about the miller b reformation on the coast? Nah, there's basically two distinct systems showing up on the nam. The EURO/UKMET led the way with this earlier today. The one everyone's focused on is Monday night/Tuesday morn. The second is another PJ s/w which carves out the STJ cutoff and is actually a stronger piece of energy sitting over the deep south Tuesday night/Wednesday morn. The old SLP boundary sitting over the coastline could flare back up if the second piece trends more negatively titled. Especially if the arctic energy over the northern plains were to phase in behind it like the NAM is hinting. It's fun to think about, but there's no support from the real models yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Dalton (DHN) is my closest reporting SREF station and has about 8-10 hours of sleet followed by about a 12 hour period of ZR...then rain. Gone from a mean of about 4 inches of snow to a little over 1. Looking forward to seeing if Larry's research can be used with this event. I really think there is no way this thing cuts to KY/OH. I'd wager the WSW may be dumped for ATL at 4am assuming the other guidance follows...that was a quick one LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Larry, we don't often get them with this much cold, dry air in place either. Seems like that ought to drive the path further south. I don't recall many that warmed up with this much cold, dry air ahead. One of my biggest heartbreaks was In the 70's, pretty early, I'd guess, we had a low coming up, and Heavy Snow Warnings...and got nothing. Didn't like the cold air in place, jumped, and I saw nary a flake, or pellet. stayed up all night waiting, heavy snow moving east out of Texas, and then poof..out of a freakin' heavy snow warning, lol. That one still hurts bad even now. T Tony, I think we agree. If it doesn't drive the path below the wedge (in S GA), I expect a NE move W of the Apps with a probable Miller B new low off of the SE coast. Either option would still put much of N GA in danger of an ice storm since the very cold air won't really be scoured out in the main CAD areas. However, the NE E of the apps track would likely take out a much of the IP and substitute ZR for it. The SN over far N GA would likely be reduced, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'd wager the WSW may be dumped for ATL at 4am assuming the other guidance follows...that was a quick one LOL You bet. That would be fast. I think the Governor might have been pressing for someone to make a call this round. This kind of thing can happen on the heels of last years fiasco. Edit: I know there was guidance and coordination with neighboring offices that fed into that decision too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The 00z NAM snowfall map and the 12z EURO are nearly identical as far as where the highest accums set up. A line from KY/TN border through far SW VA, then hits the lee side wall and picks back up along the VA/NC line to the coast. They even have extremely similar jackpot areas. For whatever that's worth at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Nah, there's basically two distinct systems showing up on the nam. The EURO/UKMET led the way with this earlier today. The one everyone's focused on is Monday night/Tuesday morn. The second is another PJ s/w which carves out the STJ cutoff and is actually a stronger piece of energy sitting over the deep south Tuesday night/Wednesday morn. The old SLP boundary sitting over the coastline could flare back up if the second piece trends more negatively titled. Especially if the arctic energy over the northern plains were to phase in behind it like the NAM is hinting. It's fun to think about, but there's no support from the real models yet. That's been my thinking here as well. It's very close to really blowing up once it hits the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 That's been my thinking here as well. It's very close to really blowing up once it hits the coast. i think if you could extend the NAM out 12 more hours, far eastern NC would get a decent hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'd wager the WSW may be dumped for ATL at 4am assuming the other guidance follows...that was a quick one LOLSnowgoose, Wouldn't there still potentially be an ice storm threat over the ATL-AHN corridor since the low level strong cold wouldn't modify so suddenly with east winds/wedging. I do think there is a several degree warm bias on the Euro in wedging/steady precip. situations. There was in Feb. 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 i think if you could extend the NAM out 12 more hours, far eastern NC would get a decent hit. Dangerous words my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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