Wow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 NAM out to 30 is a little diggier vs. 18z with that energy out west. If NAM doesn't look like SREF it's obvious that 21z run was an outlier. It looks like the NAM is moving toward the SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 It looks like the NAM is moving toward the SREF. I'n not sure though how you could get phasing with the GL low though with the look where it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Its diggier.....its north....ugh! Can we get some consensus around here?What they're saying is the backside of the energy is digging down more while the lead is more north thus the precip field is accordingly adjusted more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Well, I would expect the NAM to trend in the same way the SREF did, usually. So a shift N/W is expected here. Will the RGEM, GFS, etc. agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'n not sure though how you could get phasing with the GL low though with the look where it is. It's the energy that's looking to lean back and "scoop" up our southern low. SOme of the models actually had this solution a few days ago before it dropped it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Ummm. I think it's a little north, not tracking to Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Ummm. I think it's a little north, not tracking to Ohio. Exactly. We're not getting a rainstorm, especially Big Frosty. The NAM looks like it's going to come north, as expected, but I doubt it's going to do anything crazy. Maybe I'll be wrong. Hell, even the SREFs were not THAT bad in a way. It's still a nice winter storm with lots of P-types on the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 at 39 its really pretty close to the 18z run. maybe a tad less precip but still snow into western nc. and at 42 def a tick north and warmer though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 at 39 its really pretty close to the 18z run. maybe a tad less precip but still snow into western nc. I think the overrunning on Monday might do us better this run than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Super cold too at 42 -10 850s down the NC mountains as precip heading in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 There is a 50/50 low in place so it's not going to the OH valley.. it would be a Miller B storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Snow in nc at 45 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Looks close to RGEM at 42-48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 top half of nc snow at 48, sleet lower half and ice in upper sc. more precip here than the 18z run in nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 @48 snow in WNC should be a good thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This run is huge for I-40 early on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 48 looks ripe from NEga in the up state and nc Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Snow moves into the western Piedmont at hr 45. Very cold 850s, so it would be fluffy. GSO gets crushed hr 45-48! Wow! 1"+/hr rates! Ratios would be sick with 850s of -5C to -10C! We're probably looking at 3-4" of snow around rush hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 @51 IP for anyone south of 40 in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 I would think most of 74 and 85 would be snow on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 @48 snow in WNC should be a good thump. Yeah, NAM actually looks pretty good. No warm nose. A more consolidated LP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Solid winter storm for most of NC. Typical mixing issues for the I-85 corridor. The cold surface temperatures both before and after the storm will cause problems for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 @51 IP for anyone south of 40 in NC.That's is with 2M temps around the mid to upper 20's south of I 40Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yeah, NAM actually looks pretty good. No warm nose. Yea I like that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 LOL at all the freaking meltdowns earlier. Looks like the I-40 corridor is looking at 4-5" of snow by hr 51. Even if it changes over afterwards, that's one hell of a thump from a storm that many were writing off 10 minutes ago... Bad ice storm into N GA and upstate SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yeah, NAM actually looks pretty good. No warm nose. Yup, layers look good. Also, not to north in the movement.... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 Precip isn't bonkers...mostly .25 for NC @54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 So at this point, should we disregard the SREF outliers with temps in 50s for RDU? Yes. It's not tracking to KY/OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 850s still just south of I-40 at hr 54. Surface temps are in the low 20s. Looks like the I-40 corridor near the Triad is probably pushing 6" by then. The QPF maximum just north of GSO of 0.65". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yea I like that look. Hoping this will be snow to sleet to snow scenario as the low deepens as it turns the corner and phases in the baja energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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