DopplerWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 What on Earth happened with the 21z SREF? Mean plummeted in Asheville from nearly 8 inches to 2.8 inches. rdu mean down to 3.5" from 5", but quite a few have 0" which seems out to lunch which may be skewing the totals. max is 9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 What on Earth happened with the 21z SREF? Mean plummeted in Asheville from nearly 8 inches to 2.8 inches. Amps up the first wave so much it allows a phase in with the Great Lakes low swinging around. Too much phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I think a possible scenario is a hybrid miller a/b. Where the SLP moves towards s-central ga and redevelops off of savannah. I agree w/ the potential for very cold sfc temps, the SLP can only get so far inland before it pops offshore. That sounds plausible. Imo based on decades of history, there won't be a sfc low tracking eastward through C AL/GA as per the 12Z Euro or eastward through N AL/N GA as per the most recent NAVGEM and there also still end up being a major NC winter storm since I can't find even one instance of this. OTOH, a Miller B low could track NE west of the Apps and still allow for the possibility of a major NC winter storm (mainly ZR). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Amps up the first wave so much it allows a phase in with the Great Lakes low swinging around. First time a Great Lakes low has been mentioned during tracking this system.. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Something to notice about the SREF plumes: The ARW members of the SREF show a mean at GSO of just 0.38". Looks like that's driving the mean down a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Closer we get and the better the models are sampling the data and we start seeing these solutions? This is not good, folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 First time a Great Lakes low has been mentioned during tracking this system.. Sent from my iPhone Until now, it's just been a benign arctic wave that ushers in the big cold shot after the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Something to notice about the SREF plumes: The ARW members of the SREF show a mean at GSO of just 0.38". Looks like that's driving the mean down a lot. There's definitely a lot of spread here so there is not a lot of agreement among the individual members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Something to notice about the SREF plumes: The ARW members of the SREF show a mean at GSO of just 0.38". Looks like that's driving the mean down a lot. yea, when removing the ARW members for rdu the mean shoots back up to 5", similar to the 15z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 One thing I should ask: Normally, we tend to think that the NAM tends to overamp things. The SREF is closely related to the NAM, from what I understand. Could the SREF be falling into a potential bias at this range? I guess we'll see what happens to the other models at 00z. I'm not a regular user of the SREF, so I'm not positive of its biases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It has the low in KY, that's a big problem! Now that's an apprunner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Latest plumes for MWK went from 7.5 inches to under 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Amps up the first wave so much it allows a phase in with the Great Lakes low swinging around. Too much phasing. Yeah, 7 of 21 members track the SLP into Clevland. 14/21 look like GFS/NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yeah, 7 of 21 members track the SLP into Clevland. 14/21 look like GFS/NAM. Gotta stay away from that solution. I'm sure JB will be pointing at it saying told you so. It would bring the NE into the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yeah, 7 of 21 members track the SLP into Clevland. 14/21 look like GFS/NAM. Well that isn't too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Watch the Nam being super amped with the SREF plume coming in like this. Sometimes it's a precursor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Gotta stay away from that solution. I'm sure JB will be pointing at it saying told you so. It would bring the NE into the mix. nam is running, we are about to see if the sref has any company Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 the wind just knocked out my cable. i'm gonna be pissed if this cold front can knock my cable out but not prevent this next storm from getting to cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 some of the supported energy hasn't been sampled yet from the northern stream. Probably won't be resolved until tomorrow. Until then, the 21Z SREF is very suspect in this massive and sudden jump north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Gotta stay away from that solution. I'm sure JB will be pointing at it saying told you so. It would bring the NE into the mix. LOL...I think the NE will end up getting in on this, not sold on the coastal being wide right, it's very close to being a lot bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Good disco from RNK earlier today .... specific mention of the I-40 corridor ... .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 400 PM SATURDAY...WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE A RESIDUAL PROBLEM SUNDAY NIGHT. INSPITE OF DIMINISHING WINDS...THE BITTER COLD WILL STILL COMBINEWITH THE WIND TO PRODUCE VALUES BELOW ZERO...JUST NOT AS EXTREMEAS SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE ITSWAY...PASSING OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS COMPLETELYDIMINISHING FOR MONDAY. MODELS SHOW A 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH PARKEDOVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC EARLY MONDAY...SO SINGLE DIGITTEMPERATURES A GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR YOUR WAKE-UP HOUR ON MONDAY.ONCE WE GET PAST THE BITTER COLD OUR ATTENTION WILL QUICKLY TURNTOWARD A WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE EVOLVING ACROSS THE DEEPSOUTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTTEXAS MONDAY...THEN MOVE EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST BEFORE TURNINGNORTHWARD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEENVERY FIDGETY ABOUT THE EXACT TRACK AND POLEWARD DEPTH OFMOISTURE. THIS INCONSISTENCY HAS LED TO LOWER THAN AVERAGECONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO WHAT MAY HAPPEN HERE IN THE CENTRALAPPALACHIANS DURING THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME... I.E. WILLIT SNOW OR DO NOTHING AT ALL.BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS TODAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THEREWILL BE A SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL TRY TOMOVE NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ONMONDAY. THIS MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO FALL AS SNOW FROM TENNESSEEINTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. THE QUESTION IS HOW FARNORTH THE MOISTURE WILL INTRUDE INTO THE BITTER COLD AIRMASSBEFORE SUCCOMING TO EVAPORATION BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.ATTM...MODELS INSIST AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WILLHAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. AS YOU GETNORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND ESPECIALLY INTO VA/WV...THE CONFIDENCEGOES DOWN. AS SUCH...OUR CURRENT FORECAST WILL REFLECT THESEUNCERTAINTIES...WITH PROBABILITIES OF 50 PERCENT OR GREATERRESERVED FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...THENGRADUALLY DECREASING AS YOU HEAD NORTH INTO VA/WV. RUNNING THE QPFPROVIDED BY HPC USING A 10:1 FOR SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO YEILDED SOMEMODEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA.... SUGGESTING 2TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER...GOING UP ASYOU HEAD SOUTH TOWARD I-40...AND GOING DOWN AS YOU HEAD NORTH OFHIGHWAY 58. THESE NUMBERS CAN EASILY GO UP OR DOWN PENDING THETRACK OF THE STORM...BUT THIS IS THE BEST PROBABILISTIC FORECASTBASED ON THE DATA AVAILABLE. AS A RULE OF THUMB...THE HIGHESTSNOWFALL WILL GENERALLY OCCUR WHERE 850MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROMM2 TO M5 DEG C. ATTM...THIS CORRIDOR IS PROGGED ALONG THE I-40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Those 7 members get snow almost to Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Nam at 20 and I know it's early but may be trying to dig a little more with that western energy through the Rockies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 it's already further north by 24 with the PJ energy digging back more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The 21Z 3 hour temps look really funky for RDU Some of the members have temps jumping into the 50s and 60s on the 17th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The 21Z 3 hour temps look really funky for RDU Some of the members have temps jumping into the 50s and 60s on the 17th... Yeah if it pulls the storm west of you, you're going to get warm unless there is CAD in place which there will be very little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 NAM out to 30 is a little diggier vs. 18z with that energy out west. If NAM doesn't look like SREF it's obvious that 21z run was an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 it's already further north by 24 with the PJ energy digging back more I wonder if the farther north with that lead wave helps develop a coastal down the road. But yeah, NAM is north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 warmer in tn at 35, not as much precip as 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Its diggier.....its north....ugh! Can we get some consensus around here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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