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Feb 16th/17th/18th Winter Wx

burgertime

By burgertime,
in Southeastern States

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nomanslandva

nomanslandva

Posted
Posted

While waiting on 00 runs...Something interesting on the SREF plumes at least for this area on 15Z.  The members that had Monday snow were impressive but none of the members that had Monday snow added anything Tuesday or Wednesday.  It seems to be either first wave or second wave for the SREF, none showed anything for both.  Something I will look for on the next round.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

I think it'll be really hard for a storm to track right into the wedge. That may actually happen less than a southern tracking west to east system. But yeah, whatever gives us the least snow is the most likely.

 

CR,

 I agree. Looking at old wx maps going back to the late 1800's for all major ATL winter storms as well as all major RDU/HKY winter storms since 1950, I can't find a single instance of a sfc low moving eastward through central GA like is shown on 12Z Euro. I could find lows moving NEward west of the Apps while a new low forms near the SE coast (Miller B ). Also, I could find lows moving easterly through south GA south of the wedge (similar to what  0Z Euro had and recent GFS runs have had). So, I'm thinking there's a high probability that the 12Z Euro scenario won't verify and that future runs will likely adjust back southward, similar to the recent GFS runs.

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Tacoma

Tacoma

Posted
Posted

hey I'll take anything I can get but would be nice if some of the storm or the second wave would have a sw to ne orientation out of the gulf and we would all fair much better with a good thump.  still wandering guys is this coming in two waves or looking like one bigger storm?

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deltadog03

deltadog03

Posted
Posted

CR,

I agree. Looking at old wx maps going back to the late 1800's for all major ATL winter storms as well as all major RDU/HKY winter storms since 1950, I can't find a single instance of a sfc low moving eastward through central GA like is shown on 12Z Euro. I could find lows moving NEward west of the Apps while a new low forms near the SE coast (Miller B). Also, I could find lows moving easterly through south GA south of the wedge (similar to what 0Z Euro had and recent GFS runs have had). So, I'm thinking there's a high probability that the 12Z Euro scenario won't verify and that future runs will likely adjust back southward, similar to the recent GFS runs.

Interesting

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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burrel2

burrel2

Posted
Posted

I really like the SREF output....  It handled the winter storms last year pretty well for the RDU area..

 

Plus, I like the graphical interface of it.  I always look forward to those...  

 

Do you have a good link for them? I've always looked at the members on ewall, but it's probably not the best interface out there. Thanks!

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

Okay, guys, so here's the deal on the 18z NAVGEM that many were freaking out about now that it's up on WeatherBell...

 

1.) It isn't an Apps Runner.  It tracks from N AL to N SC over E NC and then OTS.

 

2.) It's a major winter storm for NC/TN/upstate SC.  It's even a big snow producer in some areas.  GSO probably notches 6-8" before sleeting at the end.

 

3.) Surface temps are cold.  Most of NC is in the 20s until the LP inexplicably tracks right into the wedge (though there might be a transfer happening in reality in between the 6-hr panels).  But by the time temperatures rise above freezing, the precip is over.

 

4.) It's the NAVGEM... that is probably all that needs to be said.

 

Overall, it probably lends more support towards the UKMET's solution.  It's pretty similar until the end in a lot of ways.

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HKY_WX

HKY_WX

Posted
Posted

CR,

 I agree. Looking at old wx maps going back to the late 1800's for all major ATL winter storms as well as all major RDU/HKY winter storms since 1950, I can't find a single instance of a sfc low moving eastward through central GA like is shown on 12Z Euro. I could find lows moving NEward west of the Apps while a new low forms near the SE coast (Miller B). Also, I could find lows moving easterly through south GA south of the wedge (similar to what  0Z Euro had and recent GFS runs have had). So, I'm thinking there's a high probability that the 12Z Euro scenario won't verify and that future runs will likely adjust back southward, similar to the recent GFS runs.

I think a possible scenario is a hybrid miller a/b. Where the SLP moves towards s-central ga and redevelops off of savannah. I agree w/ the potential for very cold sfc temps, the SLP can only get so far inland before it pops offshore.

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

I'll just leave this quote from the HPC/WPC here:

 

 


WE ARE NOT INCLUDING THE 12Z ECMWF IN THE
PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THE 12Z ECMWF ADJUSTED A BIT MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH AND RESULTING SURFACE LOW
TO THE NORTH. UNTIL MORE SUPPORT IS GAINED FOR THAT IDEA...WPC
WILL BE STICKING TO THE PREVIOUS THINKING.

 

Full text here : http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd

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burrel2

burrel2

Posted
Posted

Ahhh,  Looks like a lot of the SREF members are sending this thing way way north... I hope that's not the trend for the night! Look at the member spread for surface pressure and you can see that theres a highlighted area with the low centered up in Kentucky.(Color shading)

post-309-0-53484600-1423963713_thumb.gif

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GlaringSun

GlaringSun

Posted
Posted

I think a possible scenario is a hybrid miller a/b. Where the SLP moves towards s-central ga and redevelops off of savannah. I agree w/ the potential for very cold sfc temps, the SLP can only get so far inland before it pops offshore.

 

This is very good to hear. If the low can stay away from AL, GA, and SC, that would be better for my area than the 12z Euro run.

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Jet Stream Rider

Jet Stream Rider

Posted
Posted

Okay, guys, so here's the deal on the 18z NAVGEM that many were freaking out about now that it's up on WeatherBell...

 

1.) It isn't an Apps Runner.  It tracks from N AL to N SC over E NC and then OTS.

 

2.) It's a major winter storm for NC/TN/upstate SC.  It's even a big snow producer in some areas.  GSO probably notches 6-8" before sleeting at the end.

 

3.) Surface temps are cold.  Most of NC is in the 20s until the LP inexplicably tracks right into the wedge (though there might be a transfer happening in reality in between the 6-hr panels).  But by the time temperatures rise above freezing, the precip is over.

 

4.) It's the NAVGEM... that is probably all that needs to be said.

 

Overall, it probably lends more support towards the UKMET's solution.  It's pretty similar until the end in a lot of ways.

 

The thing I'm a little concerned about is; where is the moisture coming from? We need the slp to develop to a significant degree to bring in enough moisture to make this work. Otherwise we are moisture starved with limited accumulation.

 

Probably over thinking it at this point though.

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HKY_WX

HKY_WX

Posted
Posted

The thing I'm a little concerned about is; where is the moisture coming from? We need the slp to develop to a significant degree to bring in enough moisture to make this work. Otherwise we are moisture starved with limited accumulation.

 

Probably over thinking it at this point though.

Isentropic lift aka overrunning is going to be the primary driver. This is not going to be a phasing situation where we get a strong SLP offshore. The SLP in this situation should be tracked only for climo/comparison purposes to determine precipitation type.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Okay, guys, so here's the deal on the 18z NAVGEM that many were freaking out about now that it's up on WeatherBell...

 

1.) It isn't an Apps Runner.  It tracks from N AL to N SC over E NC and then OTS.

 

2.) It's a major winter storm for NC/TN/upstate SC.  It's even a big snow producer in some areas.  GSO probably notches 6-8" before sleeting at the end.

 

3.) Surface temps are cold.  Most of NC is in the 20s until the LP inexplicably tracks right into the wedge (though there might be a transfer happening in reality in between the 6-hr panels).  But by the time temperatures rise above freezing, the precip is over.

 

4.) It's the NAVGEM... that is probably all that needs to be said.

 

Overall, it probably lends more support towards the UKMET's solution.  It's pretty similar until the end in a lot of ways.

 

 

James,

  Looking back at all major RDU and HKY winter storms since 1950, I can't find a single instance of a low moving eastward through N or even C AL/GA. Not one. I looked very hard for one. I saw some move eastward through S GA and a decent number move NE west of the Apps often with Miller B redevelopment near the SE coast. But there's zero historic support for the NAVGM track together with a widespread major NC winter storm. Conclusion: it is out to lunch. The Carolina Crusher (1/2000) was from a low moving ESE through S AL/GA by the way. 

 

 So, either the track will shift back south or there won't be a major NC winter storm imo.

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Jet Stream Rider

Jet Stream Rider

Posted
Posted

Isentropic lift aka overrunning is going to be the primary driver. This is not going to be a phasing situation where we get a strong SLP offshore. The SLP in this situation should be tracked only for climo/comparison purposes to determine precipitation type.

 

Yes, thanks for the clarification.

 

I recall now that this is primarily an overrunning event. Hope we get a good show for all and nobody gets too much ice of course.

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