packbacker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 11:01 PM, Jon said: Over the state? I'm not seeing it. We looking at a different NAVGEM? yes we are, I am looking at the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 11:04 PM, packbacker said: yes we are, I am looking at the 18z. haha gotcha! Sorry guys, didn't realize it was the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 18z GEFS mean... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Euro model from news 14 Check out @TWCNews_CLTWX's Tweet: https://twitter.com/TWCNews_CLTWX/status/566733685924175872?s=09 gfs model Check out @TWCNews_CLTWX's Tweet: https://twitter.com/TWCNews_CLTWX/status/566733432005206017?s=09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Ok, ha! I just realized...we're stressing over the the Navgem. The 18Z NAVGEM!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yeah, that 18z NAVGEM is not good. Coastal develops off Virginia Beach rather than Savanna. Hope that does not verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 11:10 PM, Cold Rain said: Ok, ha! I just realized...we're stressing over the the Navgem. The 18Z NAVGEM!!It'll be right because it can't just snow here. That's ridiculous. Not in this winter, not in any winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 11:09 PM, MillerA said: Euro model from news 14 Check out @TWCNews_CLTWX's Tweet: https://twitter.com/TWCNews_CLTWX/status/566733685924175872?s=09 gfs model Check out @TWCNews_CLTWX's Tweet: https://twitter.com/TWCNews_CLTWX/status/566733432005206017?s=09 Nice! Thanks for sharing!! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 11:10 PM, Cold Rain said: Ok, ha! I just realized...we're stressing over the the Navgem. The 18Z NAVGEM!! OK then no worries! I'm just going to watch in real time on the SPC mesoscale and look for the slp to track across the Florida peninsula and we should be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 11:12 PM, WidreMann said: It'll be right because it can't just snow here. That's ridiculous. Not in this winter, not in any winter. I think it'll be really hard for a storm to track right into the wedge. That may actually happen less than a southern tracking west to east system. But yeah, whatever gives us the least snow is the most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 11:16 PM, Cold Rain said: I think it'll be really hard for a storm to track right into the wedge. That may actually happen less than a southern tracking west to east system. But yeah, whatever gives us the least snow is the most likely.We really don't have much CAD with this one. We have a lot of left-over ocld and a departing high. Granted, the big storm from today will act as a 50/50 and keep some confluence in place, but not enough to put us in a situation where the wedge will block an SLP. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 11:23 PM, WidreMann said: We really don't have much CAD with this one. We have a lot of left-over ocld and a departing high. Granted, the big storm from today will act as a 50/50 and keep some confluence in place, but not enough to put us in a situation where the wedge will block an SLP. We'll see. We are just going to have to watch the slp as it forms and tracks. Right now we have pressure falling south of Tejas so we have a ways to go. Observations later tomorrow should help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Snowcover increased today,all of E.Kentucky and part of western VA. May help keep temps below the forecast downstream,we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It's not an apps runner on the navgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 11:37 PM, franklin NCwx said: It's not an apps runner on the navgem. Still one giant step in the wrong direction though. Not really enough to be legitimately concerned about yet. But if we start to see others join that idea, red flags need to be hoisted immediately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 No its not, but appears to run well inland through SC, NC and dissolves while the coastal reforms off Virginia. Whatever energy we get from the baja low we need it to hang together and stay south till its off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Winter storm watches issued. Including the ATL metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwupstatewx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 11:53 PM, pcgamecock2001 said: GSP holding firm I guess. Wow. GSP issued for Greater Oconee with this package, so anticipate them going up first shift tomorrow to meet the 48 hour window. Just my thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 RAH's briefing on the event: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/briefing/RAH_Briefing_for_February_14-17_events.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 On 2/15/2015 at 12:00 AM, nwupstatewx said: GSP issued for Greater Oconee with this package, so anticipate them going up first shift tomorrow to meet the 48 hour window. Just my thinking. Correct, Greenville County will probably be this evening...3am latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Hi res NAM really hammers the midlands of SC with freezing rain Monday night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 On 2/15/2015 at 12:10 AM, wake4est said: RAH's briefing on the event: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/briefing/RAH_Briefing_for_February_14-17_events.pdf Thanks for linking that. Its quite well done of course. On Tuesday, they show a 1020 High in the vicinity of NYC and a slp in the vicinity of just south of Atlanta. That's not a bad setup. Yes the high could be stronger of course, but with the air mass being this cold and dry it should get the job done. They have reasonable accumulation estimates with mixing taken into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 On 2/15/2015 at 12:21 AM, Jet Stream Rider said: Thanks for linking that. Its quite well done of course. They show a 1020 High in the vicinity of NYC and a slp in the vicinity of just south of Atlanta. That's not a bad setup. Yes the high could be stronger of course, but with the air mass being this cold and dry it should get the job done. They have reasonable accumulation estimates with mixing taken into account. I agree. They do a great job with all of their products. I like seeing the high there on Tuesday. I don't care how strong/weak it is. It just being there is reassuring and will help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Pretty much all modeling tries to nail KCAE with a Winter storm of SN, IP, ZR except the 12z Euro. At this stage, I prefer the SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bhs1975 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Man that trough is DEEP on tues. 540dm line way south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Did anyone look at the individual members of the 18z gefs? I'm curious how similar they are to each other and to the 12z. I would imagine that some of the crazy qpf members have been tamed a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 On 2/15/2015 at 12:36 AM, packfan98 said: Did anyone look at the individual members of the 18z gefs? I'm curious how similar they are to each other and to the 12z. I would imagine that some of the crazy qpf members have been tamed a bit. There was 2 almost whiffs for central NC, several amped and probably half like the Op. So pretty good support of the Op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 On 2/15/2015 at 12:33 AM, Bhs1975 said: Man that trough is DEEP on tues. 540dm line way south. what model, what run? map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 On 2/15/2015 at 12:45 AM, packbacker said: There was 2 almost whiffs for central NC, several amped and probably half like the Op. So pretty good support of the Op.Thank you. It will be interesting to see the RGEM as it comes into range. I like it more than the SREF. Which model are you leaning towards? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 On 2/15/2015 at 12:47 AM, packfan98 said: Thank you. It will be interesting to see the RGEM as it comes into range. I like it more than the SREF. Which model are you leaning towards?ukie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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