packbacker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Well there goes the NAVGEM consistency. lol It's just a hair north than the Euro. Kind of scary the NAVGEM and Euro are alike at 60 hours. But, with that said we are 60 hours out, a lot can change still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Navgem tracks the SLP up into the Apps, would be a front end snow to ice to rain for a lot of people. I was wondering when the Miller B solutions were going to start showing up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 12z ensemble lows are stupid cold for RDU. GSO at -2, -2....brr.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I was wondering when the Miller B solutions were going to start showing up again.Miller B is fine if there's CAD. There's no real CAD with this one. If that happens, we're just going to get ice to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Here's 50% percentile snow totals across North Carolina from our friends at WPC. I like what I'm seeing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Miller B is fine if there's CAD. There's no real CAD with this one. If that happens, we're just going to get ice to rain. Yup. All these southern track solutions have been nice, but I do worry about that holding. The Navgem solution is what I have been worried about us seeing more of as we get closer. If we get through 12z tomorrow without seeing much of that, I will feel better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yup. All these southern track solutions have been nice, but I do worry about that holding. The Navgem solution is what I have been worried about us seeing more of as we get closer. If we get through 12z tomorrow without seeing much of that, I will feel better.Link me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm starting to feel that my area will be mostly rain... I sure to god hope not. If the storm can trend South, that would be awesome. Including the cold air from the north. But I doubt that'll happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Link me. Don't have it. Pack, help us out please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yup. All these southern track solutions have been nice, but I do worry about that holding. The Navgem solution is what I have been worried about us seeing more of as we get closer. If we get through 12z tomorrow without seeing much of that, I will feel better. isn't the NAVGEM like 1" QPF all frozen for Raleigh? It didn't look bad to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Looks like the north central Piedmont in NC has been consistently showing at least 6" from Oxford to South Boston and down to Yanceyville as we appear to stay all snow with ratios north of 10:1. I know we are off everyone's radar, but if I'm wrong, please let us know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The NAVGEM looks fine to me. Lines up decently with the UKMET to an extent, albeit a little north. Would be a lot of snow going over to sleet at the end. Surface temps are well below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Link me. https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_DOD_area.cgi?area=fnmoc_namer&set=All Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 isn't the NAVGEM like 1" QPF all frozen for Raleigh? It didn't look bad to me Just reacting to what Pack said about it tracking up the Apps. I am at the mall surrounded by 30 kids, so I haven't seen it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Just reacting to what Pack said about it tracking up the Apps. I am at the mall surrounded by 30 kids, so I haven't seen it. That's like depending on Eeyore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 12z ensemble lows are stupid cold for RDU. GSO at -2, -2....brr.... All 51 members of the EPS have Asheville going below zero on 2/19. Range of values is that it could be as "warm" as -5, but as cold as -15. Very impressive signature for an arctic blast at this distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 SREF for Roxboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Just reacting to what Pack said about it tracking up the Apps. I am at the mall surrounded by 30 kids, so I haven't seen it. it's all good man, making sure I wasn't seeing things wrong on WxBell, the map I had pulled up had UNDEFINED in the center haha...I was just at the outlets so I feel your pain...It would be hard for this to trend away from the triangle! I like where we're sitting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Here's the navgem....2m's are fine at this point for central NC, so it's probably front end snow to sleet to frzn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The NAVGEM looks fine to me. Lines up decently with the UKMET to an extent, albeit a little north. Would be a lot of snow going over to sleet at the end. Surface temps are well below freezing.It warms most of NC into the mid to upper 30s after noon on Tuesday. The SLP tracks OVER the state of NC. How is that good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm starting to feel that my area will be mostly rain... I sure to god hope not. If the storm can trend South, that would be awesome. Including the cold air from the north. But I doubt that'll happen. To early to think that way. Just watch the track as it evolves over time...the models are still trying to figure it out. But, yeah, if it's in Ga it will cause problems for some Better it were in Fla. or down around Al biny:) T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It warms most of NC into the mid to upper 30s after noon on Tuesday. The SLP tracks OVER the state of NC. How is that good? It's hard to tell, but through 12z Tuesday roughly 0.7" of qpf has fallen, it's probably front end snow to ice then after 12z temps do warm in the mid-30's but precip has ended during that time so it's hard to tell when it actually reaches low 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 While this may be good for some in NC it's not what the folks in GA and SC want to see. Also, if it goes to far north everyone will be running to the cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 MEX MOS has 25/7 for Thursday. That's one of the coldest days I can remember seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 like widre said earlier, i see this being more of a snow to sleet to snow solution rather than a snow to frz rain to snow. especially with the initial thumping of snow monday night and the tendency of the gfs to verify a tad warm. but we will see. Gotta hope so over here. FAY and much of the Sandhills is getting painted with an early thump, then .5-.75 inches of ZR. I-95 would be an unpleasant adventure with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 18z GEFS looks very close to the 12z GEFS except it has more precip with over-running then the coastal. Definitely seeing a trend to more over-running but there is a big difference between the EPS/GEFS with regards to how far north/south it gets. It might be a tad north with the over-running in TN/KY, is the only real change I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 18z GEFS was close to it's OP run...less QPF compared to the 12z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It warms most of NC into the mid to upper 30s after noon on Tuesday. The SLP tracks OVER the state of NC. How is that good? Over the state? I'm not seeing it. We looking at a different NAVGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 That's the 12z NAVGEM. The 18z is warmer. Also, I'm talking about sfc temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It warms most of NC into the mid to upper 30s after noon on Tuesday. The SLP tracks OVER the state of NC. How is that good? Surface temps don't warm until precip is over. Anyways, doubt it happens. I am looking at the 18z NAVGEM on Meteociel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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