Cold Rain Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 So was the 18z too warm or just light on the precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 verbatim gfs shows more sleet than frz rain during the mix portion of the storm than the previous runs. but it looks similar to the sref by bringing snow in earlier monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I've often heard the 18z is the worst one to look at of all the times. the most unreliable.Fritschy it is brother but because we're possibly less than 48 hrs from game time its a little bothersome with the model resolutions not getting there act together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 I think the SREF is probably the safest bet right now to look for WRT trends. It really nailed our storm last year while the GFS was out to lunch most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 So was the 18z too warm or just light on the precip? A little bit of both with that first wave. Second wave was really close to a big dog....probably out to lunch though. I would lean more towards the SREF and the NAM....of course cut NAM QPF totals in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 So was the 18z too warm or just light on the precip?As Burger mentioned 5h looked pretty decent it just didn't reflect on the precip field and the low off the coast kinda got its act together a little too late for everyone. The GFS on the 1st wave was good for almost everyone in my opinion however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Coastal just misses, except for eastern NC. Precip output for the run. For most of NC it's front end snow 2-3" and then some sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 If the GFS was good enough at 12z, it's good enough at 18z. Let's stop this nonsense. Just because you don't like what it shows doesn't mean it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 18z nam CAE precip (1).png 18z nam RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 for central nc posters, gfs shows us getting a bit of the coastal as it gets together. so still a snow to sleet to snow solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 So was the 18z too warm or just light on the precip? It was warm for 850's, plenty cold 2m's during precip. It shuts off during the day on Tuesday and goes to low 30's but then the coastal takes over and gives some light precip and drops into the mid-20's again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 If the GFS was good enough at 12z, it's good enough at 18z. Let's stop this nonsense. Just because you don't like what it shows doesn't mean it's wrong. One thing I will say is that the GFS, NAM, and even the Euro have been jumping all around with this one. Meanwhile, the UKMET and even the NAVGEM have been fairly stoic for the last few days. Of course, they might just be consistently wrong. The GFS was decent up here. Probably 4" or maybe 5" of snow before maybe going over to a bit of sleet to end it (granted I haven't checked soundings), but it can obviously be much better. Looked like half an inch of QPF with maybe some sleet to end it. I don't really trust the GFS at this point, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 If the GFS was good enough at 12z, it's good enough at 18z. Let's stop this nonsense. Just because you don't like what it shows doesn't mean it's wrong. I agree, the track has been pretty consistant today with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Good deal, thanks guys. It looks like the overall trend today has been more emphasis on the lead wave. With the air mass in place, I would still hedge toward lower surface temps than shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 If the GFS was good enough at 12z, it's good enough at 18z. Let's stop this nonsense. Just because you don't like what it shows doesn't mean it's wrong. The GFS has been terrible with this storm the entire time. For consistent performance that resembles what is starting to look like the final solution the UK is way ahead, ,then, idk, probably the Canadian. The Euro just jumped 200 miles and the GFS has been spitting out a random ensemble member as an operational run for 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 If the GFS was good enough at 12z, it's good enough at 18z. Let's stop this nonsense. Just because you don't like what it shows doesn't mean it's wrong. I don't think any model is really "good enough" right now. I'll bet we don't stop seeing big implication changes until Sunday evening. Overall the pattern is awesome though...the question will be who gets shafted by mixing...or getting missed by heavier precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Is that your forecast or are you discussing a specific model? It's the forecast from the noaa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 18z nam RDU You get a serious flizzard I still think a blend of the nam and euro for mby is best It's gonna be a sweet storm for someone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 for central nc posters, gfs shows us getting a bit of the coastal as it gets together. so still a snow to sleet to snow solution. The UK/GFS/Euro all show roughly 0.5" to 0.6" precip just from the overrunning, for central NC. The GFS is much further south. The GFS does give a little bit more to RDU with the coastal where Euro has none. We are getting a consensus on what we are going to get wintery precip from, now it's just how far N-S this occurs... Edit: The 18z GFS did tick north with the over-running from it's 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The GFS has been terrible with this storm the entire time. For consistent performance that resembles what is starting to look like the final solution the UK is way ahead, ,then, idk, probably the Canadian. The Euro just jumped 200 miles and the GFS has been spitting out a random ensemble member as an operational run for 3 days.I think we should wait till the storm actually happens before we say the GFS sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I wouldn't trust the GFS for nothing. It has big changes every six HRS no way I would trust that thing!!! Could it be right for YES, but I doubt it very seriously it has to prove it self better than it has as of late..... It has 4 different solutions every day, so sure it is bound to get one close out of that many runs. lol JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The GFS/Euro both show roughly 0.5" to 0.6" precip just from the overrunning, for central NC. The GFS is much further south. The GFS does give a little bit more to RDU with the coastal where Euro has none. We are getting a consensus on what we are going to get wintery precip from, now it's just how far N-S this occurs... like widre said earlier, i see this being more of a snow to sleet to snow solution rather than a snow to frz rain to snow. especially with the initial thumping of snow monday night and the tendency of the gfs to verify a tad warm. but we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I wouldn't trust the GFS for nothing. It has big changes every six HRS no way I would trust that thing!!! Could it be right for YES, but I doubt it very seriously it has to prove it self better than it has as of late..... It has 4 different solutions every day, so sure it is bound to get one close out of that many runs. lol JMO I bet if they ran the Euro 4 times a day, you'd see a lot of variation. Maybe not as much as the GFS, since the Euro is a better model. All the same, let's not get pissed off at imperfect models. It's all we'll ever have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 For those of us in SEVA I think the trend is our friend. The 18Z NAM has temps never getting above 32 throughout the run with about an inch of precip with more to come after that. 18Z GFS looks cold and less precip. Always the number one concern for us on the coast is temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I bet if they ran the Euro 4 times a day, you'd see a lot of variation. Maybe not as much as the GFS, since the Euro is a better model. All the same, let's not get pissed off at imperfect models. It's all we'll ever have. I understand they are not perfect and never will be perfect but that thing is horrible!!! Most of the time...... Again JMO. I am not mad whether I get one flake or not that model still stinks! I hope every one that wants wintry precipitation gets in on the action in the southeast!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 like widre said earlier, i see this being more of a snow to sleet to snow solution rather than a snow to frz rain to snow. especially with the initial thumping of snow monday night and the tendency of the gfs to verify a tad warm. but we will see. The Euro verbatim was all snow for RDU. I think expectations, atleast mine, are now are for a 2-3" snow and some ice mixed in for RDU, roughly 0.4-5" of precip. If the Euro keeps ticking north it might be more ice and less precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Navgem tracks the SLP up into the Apps, would be a front end snow to ice to rain for a lot of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It's close, looks like Macon maybe 33-35F range.Sounds good. Sounds a bit colder than the nam too Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Navgem tracks the SLP up into the Apps, would be a front end snow to ice to rain for a lot of people. Well there goes the NAVGEM consistency. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Well there goes the NAVGEM consistency. lol Yeah there goes the NAVGEM tracking the low right into the CAD. I was wondering what was wrong with it when it was showing all of those reasonable and consistent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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