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Feb 16th/17th/18th Winter Wx


burgertime

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18z RGEM, like the NAM, has ATL right on the 32F line for the precip that starts mid day Monday.

 

The RGEM looks pretty solid.  Nice firehose look to it.

 

Looks like the GFS is popping the western ridge a little more and maybe digging the S/W some more early in the run.  At the surface, the HP to our north is a little stronger and the first wave is looking more amped back in TN.

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I think the 18z GFS may be about to go weenie on us.  The western Piedmont of NC already has 2-3" with moderate snow ongoing by early Monday evening.  The 12z had basically nothing.

 

The surface low is looking more consolidated and precip is heavier everywhere and further N/W.

 

EDIT: I'm talking about the lead wave.

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Jackson NWS office in Kentucky has just posted a winter storm watch for Eastern KY for Sunday night through Monday night for 4 or more inches of snow. I knew it was going to be a close storm for my area but our local office must feel pretty confident on a fairly northern track. They still haven't posted their long-term area forecast discussion yet so I'll be curious to hear their thoughts.

Sorry if I'm not posting in the correct sub-forum, but I'm kind of in an area that could be considered in multiple sub-forums.

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