CaryWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Jan 1988 Read that one several times as a good analog. Maybe not these totals though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The EPS is practically identical to the op Euro. Maybe a tad south. Great run for I-40 and into N NC/S VA. Huge changes from the last EPS run, though. It has areas in SE VA which had 2" at 00z now with 6"+. NE TN/SW VA is hammered. Same for Franklin's neck of the woods. GSO looks like 7" or so with RDU maybe a hair less. CLT looks like maybe 5" or so. The mean also looks much better over TN. Pretty massive flip for the EPS at such a close range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This is a problem for the I-20 corridor in Georigia. I think somewhere between Chattanooga and Crossville is going to jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Euro Ens mean has the Burgertime precip hole over Charlotte in full effect (relative lack of precip focused there) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 packbacker, can you tell us any more about the EPS with regards to timing, all front wave, temps, etc...? Any more info. would be greatly appreciated. I'm not sure what products you have access to through your vendor. Thanks! Here is the EPS mean precip output, difficult to know exactly where the snow/ice line is but roughly I-40N is all snow, south of I-40 to roughly from FAY to CLT would be all snow and then flip to ice. The precip output looks close to the UK, give or take 25-50 miles. The 0z EPS mean had the precip max from the overrunning down the NC/SC line, the 12z shifted it from I-40N into southern VA. That was a 100 mile shift in one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Euro Ens mean has the Burgertime precip hole over Charlotte in full effect (relative lack of precip focused there) I was just looking at that, the UK is hinting at that, the Euro/EPS is hinting at that too? Mountains causing this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Ok cool. Only one decade. Funny bathroom story, btw! Looks like it didn't survive the mods, but at least you got a chuckle. I wish the NWS had that storm on their past events page. There were actually several storms in 95/96 that they don't have, this being the biggest one. I also remember that we were in school *after* it had already iced and trees were leaning over. We were sent home 2/3rds of the way through the day because of the power being out for a while. These days, school would have been closed the day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Here is the EPS mean precip output, hard to predict where the snow/ice line is but roughly I-40N is all snow, south of I-40 to roughly from FAY to CLT would be all snow and then flip to ice. The precip output looks close to the UK, give or take 25-50 miles. The 0z EPS mean had the precip max from the overrunning down the NC/SC line, the 12z shifted it from I-40N into southern VA. That was a 100 mile shift in one run. Thanks for the input! I imagine that such a shift may be due to all members now going with the front wave instead of enhancing the second. That could make a dramatic shift. We are probably closer to a consensus than we think instead of model mayhem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Looks like the NAM is amping things up over C TN out to hr 42. Could be some changes. I think that EPS shift just goes to show that you have to be careful worshipping at the altar of the European Ensemble Mean. Yeah, it's pretty good, but it isn't perfect by any stretch of the imagination. That shift had massive implications for SE KY/NE TN/SW VA/S VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I was just looking at that, the UK is hinting at that, the Euro/EPS is hinting at that too? Mountains causing this? No biggie...but yes, noteable move north overall with the precip. TN into the W NC mountains sitting best right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Compare my above post for the EPS with the GEFS, this is a day 3 event and they are what, 400 miles apart? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Well SREF & 12z NAM in Bufkit are major ice storm here in KCAE. GGEM also.. 12z GFS is around .30 or less. Euro is mainly light. I'm thinking the SREF + HI-RES NAM is going to prevail now that we are getting closer. That scares me because both the SREF & NAM have over half an inch of ice here.. actually more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Looks like the NAM is amping things up over C TN out to hr 42. Could be some changes. I think that EPS shift just goes to show that you have to be careful worshipping at the altar of the European Ensemble Mean. Yeah, it's pretty good, but it isn't perfect by any stretch of the imagination. That shift had massive implications for SE KY/NE TN/SW VA/S VA. At 48 central TN is rocking Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 18z NAM says I will take your unrealistically high 12Z QPF output and raise you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Here's a few more 15Z SREF mean totals (in inches) than the ones James initially mentioned: KHKY: 7.75 KAVL: 7.77 KGEV: 10.03 KTNB: 11.19 That's Hickory, Asheville, Jefferson, and Boone, respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Looks like the NAM is amping things up over C TN out to hr 42. Could be some changes. I think that EPS shift just goes to show that you have to be careful worshipping at the altar of the European Ensemble Mean. Yeah, it's pretty good, but it isn't perfect by any stretch of the imagination. That shift had massive implications for SE KY/NE TN/SW VA/S VA. It's not nearly as strong as the Euro, atleast at 5h. I haven't checked surface though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DueUCMe Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 RDU Disco... .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY......INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR WINTER STORM CONDITIONS LATE MONDAYTHROUGH TUESDAY...DAYTIME MONDAY WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE THAT`S PROGGED TO ZIP ACROSS THE STATE BETWEEN 15Z MON AND 03ZTUE. THEN THE MAIN SYSTEM...IN THE FORM OF A SOUTHERN STREAM DRIVENSFC LOW WILL LIFT FROM THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY EVENING TO SOMEWHEREALONG OR JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...THENLIFT NE AND AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT.IMPACTS ON MONDAY: MONDAY WILL REMAIN COLD (HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S)...AND THAT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SNOW AS THE P-TYPE...ANDEFFICIENT ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL...WITH ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS LATEMONDAY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPIS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONMONDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN PERHAPS AN INCH ORTWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT ANDALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 64...WITH PERHAPS LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROS OURNE ZONES.THEN FOR THE MAIN SYSTEM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAYMORNING...WE STILL HAVE FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE ON-GOINGMODEL DIFFERENCES...ESPECIALLY NOW THAT THE 12Z ECMWF IS EVEN FASTERAND FARTHER EAST WITH THE SFC LOW...AND MORE IMPORTANTLY MUCHFARTHER EAST WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. IF THE 12Z ECWMF WERE TOVERIFY...WE`D BE LOOKING AT A WARNING-CRITERIA SNOW EVENT (3 OR MOREINCHES) ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA...MOSTLY FALLING MONDAY NIGHT INTOTUESDAY MORNING...WITH PERHAPS SOME FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN ACROSSOUR SE ZONES...ALL OF WHICH ENDS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOWEXITS. THE 12Z GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN BOUNCING AROUND A LOT...HASSHIFTED BACK EAST A BIT WITH THE LOW POSITION AND ITS SWATH OFHEAVIEST QPF VALUES. THE 12Z GFS SUGGESTS THE FOLLOWING:-THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN COLDEST...THUS ALLOWING FOR AN ALL-SNOWEVENT...ACROSS OUR TRIAD ZONES...BUT THAT`S WHERE THE LEAST QPFIS...THUS SUGGESTING SNOW AMOUNTS BARELY REACH WARNING CRITERIA.-A SWATH OF WARNING-CRITERIA SNOW ALONG THE HWY 64 CORRIDOR...WHICHMAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN...POTENTIALLY ADDING A LAYEROF ICE ON TOP OF ANY SNOW THAT FALLS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURSTUESDAY...BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHERLIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW BEFORE ENDING EARLY WED MORNING.-ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST-MOST ZONES...A BRIEF PERIOD OFSNOW (PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO) IN THE PREDAWN HOURS TUESDAY...THENCHANGING TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN DURING THE DAYTIME TUESDAY.GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT WARNING CRITERIA ICE ACCUMULATION (A 1/4 INCHOR MORE) IS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA...BUT TEMPS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOONWILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING..AND GIVEN THE DAYTIME FACTOR...ALL OFWHICH COULD LIMIT ICE ACCUMS. ALSO...ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONOF THIS AREA (NEAR THE SC BORDER)...TEMPS MAY WARM ENOUGH TO GO TOALL RAIN...WHICH WOULD GREATLY LIMIT THE ICE ACCUMS.ONE OF THE GREATEST CHALLENGES WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE PREDICTINGTHE JUXTAPOSITION OF THE COLD-ENOUGH-FOR-SNOW AIR WITH THE HEAVYQPF...THAT COULD RESULT IN A HEAVY SNOW SWEET SPOT SOMEWHERE IN OURCWA. RIGHT NOW...IT`S JUST TOO SOON TO SAY IF AND WHERE THAT WILLHAPPEN. MORE IMPORTANTLY...WE NEED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THEFREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL...AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THENAM...WHICH APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AS IT OFTEN IS) SUGGESTS ICEACCUMULATION MAY BE THE BIGGER STORY HERE. STAY TUNED!AFTER THAT STORM EXITS...LOOK FOR QUIET WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAYTHROUGH FRIDAY...ALBEIT REMAINING BITTER COLD WITH TEMPS REMAININGBELOW FREEZING FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THEWEEK..AND POSSIBILITY FOR LOW-TEENS OR UPPER-SINGLE-DIGIT LOWSTHURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING. THEN THE NEXT PRECIP-MAKER APPEARS TOARRIVE ON SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Moderate snow into GSO/CLT by hr 51 on the NAM. So, by noon on Monday, we're rockin'. Big change from last run. Looks like it's going to be juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Looks like the NAM is amping things up over C TN out to hr 42. Could be some changes. I think that EPS shift just goes to show that you have to be careful worshipping at the altar of the European Ensemble Mean. Yeah, it's pretty good, but it isn't perfect by any stretch of the imagination. That shift had massive implications for SE KY/NE TN/SW VA/S VA. Everything going into the first wave. Precip moving in faster. That's what I'm hoping for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Haha Nam is a true wennie run for WNC. Has light precip moving in from around 4am mon and increases through hr 51 and is just beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Everything going into the first wave. Precip moving in faster. That's what I'm hoping for. Agreed. We should have a lot more cold to work with the faster it gets in here. And we can afford it to amp up more once it does with the quicker timing. I guess the 15z SREF kind of foreshadowed this result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Agreed. We should have a lot more cold to work with the faster it gets in here. And we can afford it to amp up more once it does with the quicker timing. I guess the 15z SREF kind of foreshadowed this result. And once it turns the corner, let it blow up with the baja energy phasing in and hammer us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 NAM looks like a raging ice storm for NE GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Here's a few more 15Z SREF mean totals (in inches) than the ones James initially mentioned: KHKY: 7.75 KAVL: 7.77 KGEV: 10.03 KTNB: 11.19 That's Hickory, Asheville, Jefferson, and Boone, respectively. For Boone does that include the 1-3" tonight or is that exclusive to the big show Monday/Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 For Boone does that include the 1-3" tonight or is that exclusive to the big show Monday/Tuesday? It does include almost 2 inches from tonight I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Jan 1988 Wxsouth has been saying this reminds him of Jan 1987. We shall see I won't complain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Still looking icy for I-20? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Good sobriety on the rdu disco I'd say. Key is to focus on where the bad ice accrual might set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Still looking icy for I-20? Sent from my iPhone Yes, very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Ptype maps have ice on I-20 from CAE to close to ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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