HKY_WX Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I don't buy a lot of back end snow. I can count on one hand the times I've ever seen any meaningful back end snow. I've only seen it once, in February 96. Coincided w/ my favorite storm ever still to this day. Inch of zr followed by 3 inches of snow and several days of bitter cold. Link below is a quick view of the pattern. It's honestly not too dissimilar to the pattern over the next week. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1996/us0203.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Bit faster, too. It has snow in for us by mid-morning on Monday. TN getting hammered by then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 EPS is a hair south of the Op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It's not really backend like you're used to thinking. It looks like regular backside snow enhanced by the second wave. Good point. I'm not used to a one-two punch where you get a good hit with both, either. Usually one is big and the other is negligible. This one seems to be trending to a one punch deal, lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I've only seen it once, in February 96. Coincided w/ my favorite storm ever still to this day. Inch of zr followed by 3 inches of snow and several days of bitter cold. Link below is a quick view of the pattern. It's honestly not too dissimilar to the pattern over the next week. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1996/us0203.php Indeed, quite similar. May even match the high in the teens we had following that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It's not really backend like you're used to thinking. It looks like regular backside snow enhanced by the second wave. Widre! Where you been mann? The big thing we have going on around RDU is the 850 wobble. Could go 50 miles north or stay 25-50 miles south during the duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 15z SREF snow probability of >6" ... max probability along I-85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I've only seen it once, in February 96. Coincided w/ my favorite storm ever still to this day. Inch of zr followed by 3 inches of snow and several days of bitter cold. Link below is a quick view of the pattern. It's honestly not too dissimilar to the pattern over the next week. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1996/us0203.php I don't remember that one at all. If we get a significant winter storm, given the temps after, this one will probably rival that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Pretty sure the SREF is a pretty heavy sleet/ZR for the midlands of SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 SREF plumes are out... they look better than ever. It looks like some members would have some snow past the end of the run, as well. GSO: 6.34" RDU: 4.86" CLT: 4.87" GSP: 4.12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Is it more reliable to go with NAM, SREF , and other short term modeling , at this point in time? Are they fairly accurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 SREF plumes are out... they look better than ever. It looks like some members would have some snow past the end of the run, as well. GSO: 6.34" RDU: 4.86" CLT: 4.87" GSP: 4.12" Quite a long duration event with the precip getting in there so quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Thanks James. I am and one hour North West of GSP and one hour due west of CLT.... This helps a lot! SREF plumes are out... they look better than ever. It looks like some members would have some snow past the end of the run, as well. GSO: 6.34" RDU: 4.86" CLT: 4.87" GSP: 4.12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Is it more reliable to go with NAM, SREF , and other short term modeling , at this point in time? Are they fairly accurate? GSP NOAA has always liked the SREF and for good reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 SREF plumes are out... they look better than ever. It looks like some members would have some snow past the end of the run, as well. GSO: 6.34" RDU: 4.86" CLT: 4.87" GSP: 4.12" If I'm reading it correct, the numbers you posted are the mean? If so looks like MWK 7.5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scooter Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It looks like some great trends today. How long will this stick around once the 1st wave moves out sometime Tuesday? Looks really cold for the next couple of days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Here's the 87 hour total snow map from the sref. Usual snow map caveats apply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Here's the 87 hour total snow map from the sref. Usual snow map caveats apply. Looks like a lot of the GEFS panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 SREF plumes are out... they look better than ever. It looks like some members would have some snow past the end of the run, as well. GSO: 6.34" RDU: 4.86" CLT: 4.87" GSP: 4.12" Also, the precip type probability type favors snow almost the entire run for most of these locations. Earlier runs the probability of IP/ZR was higher than for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm still really skeptical of this track. A southern tracking west to east system? I mean, when is the last time we've had that type of cold storm track? Two or three decades ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Does the SREF assume 10:1 ratios? Mean for MTV is 7.32. Frosty is a tick higher, James a tick lower (which is surprising) Also, how far off was the EPS from the Op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Also, the precip type probability type favors snow almost the entire run for most of these locations. Earlier runs the probability of IP/ZR was higher than for snow. Indeed. Rain probabilities shoot up just east of Raleigh. Last run, it was east of I-85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 packbacker, can you tell us any more about the EPS with regards to timing, all front wave, temps, etc...? Any more info. would be greatly appreciated. I'm not sure what products you have access to through your vendor. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Does the SREF assume 10:1 ratios? Mean for MTV is 7.32. Frosty is a tick higher, James a tick lower (which is surprising) Also, how far off was the EPS from the Op? Not sure about the SREF ratios...but the Euro EPS looked very similar to the Op as far as I could tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Indeed. Rain probabilities shoot up just east of Raleigh. Last run, it was east of I-85. You mean more of I-95 east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm still really skeptical of this track. A southern tracking west to east system? I mean, when is the last time we've had that type of cold storm track? Two or three decades ago?Jan 1988 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm still really skeptical of this track. A southern tracking west to east system? I mean, when is the last time we've had that type of cold storm track? Two or three decades ago?We had a bunch in the early 2000s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 gsp disco Short term /Sunday night through Tuesday night/... as of 240 PM...as cyclogenesis develops over the arklatex region in response to central Continental U.S. Height falls late Sunday...a band of frontogenesis will become established across the southeast Sunday night. There remains discrepancy among the operational models regarding the timing of this precipitation into the western Carolinas on Monday...with the NAM remaining as the most aggressive model in developing precipitation over the southwest NC mountains by 12z Monday. Interestingly...the NAM has a great deal of support from the sref...as most ensemble members produce measurable precipitation across far southwest NC by 12z. With that in mind...probability of precipitation were increased to likely in those areas by that time. However...probability of precipitation will drop off considerably south and east from there toward the Piedmont...if for no other reason that it will take longer for the very dry near- surface air mass to saturate over the lower elevations. Probability of precipitation will increase throughout Monday...with likely probability of precipitation reserved for the western upstate/northeast Georgia and southwest NC. There is little doubt that wherever precipitation falls across the forecast area on Monday...the p-type will be snow...the only question being quantitative precipitation forecast/ accums. Confidence is rather high that 3-6 inches will fall across the southwest NC mountains by the end of Monday...but quantitative precipitation forecast is more uncertain southeast of there...but based upon a consensus NAM/GFS forecast through that time...the western upstate and northeast Georgia could see significant accums by the end of the day. Confidence is high enough to issue a Winter Storm Watch on this shift for our far western areas...from roughly Carnesville to Clayton Georgia...to Sylva to Waynesville...to Mars Hill in NC. The forecast is still Rife with uncertainty Monday night into Tuesday...as two model camps appear to be emerging...the more southern/somewhat drier/colder low track (gfs/canadian)...and the more northern/ somewhat warmer/much wetter European model (ecmwf)/NAM Camp (although it should be said that the NAM is an outlier among all models as it is much much slower than any of the models). The sref and gefs composite guidance is somewhere between the two. Meanwhile...it was interesting that the the operational NAM was on the upper end of the sref quantitative precipitation forecast envelope...while the GFS was on the low end of the gefs envelope. With that in mind...a blend of the GFS/NAM seemed to be a reasonable path of least regret in terms of timing/qpf...with a bit of a nod toward the GFS considering its similarity to the timing consensus. The upshot is that snow is expected to begin to change to sleet and rain or freezing rain across the lower SC/Georgia Piedmont Monday evening... with this transition zone shifting gradually north through the night...with the snow/rain or freezing rain line shifting to near the NC border by Tuesday afternoon. Of perhaps utmost interest will be how much (and where) freezing rain falls on Tuesday. While there will be a decent surface high to our northeast...it is not especially strong and not in an ideal position such that maintenance of cold air...especially in the southern half of the forecast area...where the transition to liquid is most likely. Therefore...while there will likely be some ice across the upstate and southern NC Piedmont Monday night/Tue...how much is still highly uncertain. The moral of the story is...there remains the potential for a significant winter storm across the entire region Monday through Tuesday...but confidence remains below watch issuance criteria (50 percent) except for the aforementioned areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 You mean more of I-95 east? With the models jumping on the front end theme, the sfc temps will be colder due to more in-situ CAD. So i don't think rain is a big concern anymore in Raleigh. I think sleet is the biggest issue b/n a major storm and a run of the mill winterstorm. FYI, during the height of the snow, the sfc temp at RDU is 22 Monday night on the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 We had a bunch in the early 2000s. Ok cool. Only one decade. Funny bathroom story, btw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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