5statewx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Low temperatures next Friday per GGEM... watch out Miami, Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Not hard for me to believe. Typical frustration living in this part of the world. I thought someone said this was the EURO's "wheelhouse". If so, it's going to be miserable and cold with rain here. Better cold rain, than the destruction of zr You know it's true, lol, and anyway it'll all change before the game starts. At least you and I are out of the bullseye, and it's always best to be out of the bullseye until they finish singing the anthem T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Well, winter is about to make a roaring comeback. It appears that there IS going to be some snow/sleet/freezing rain...and well Rain as well. I have a new video up, and talking about amounts as well. If you haven't liked my Facebook page, and you want too, please do. Thank you everyone, I truly appreciate it. -Chris https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 All of the Hi-Res models are not as amped with the first wave as the Euro in the 48hour timeframe... my guess is the Euro is out to lunch here. The 18z RGEM will probably tell the tale one way or the other on how this is going to go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 NAM any use at this range? I always thought it had a bias of being to far NW at this range?We're starting to get into its wheel house now for overall setup just have to ignore amped up QPF totals as they are almost always over done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Ukie is rolling out now on wxbell. Let's see how 850 temps hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Doesn't euro have a tendency to over amp storms? It does, but I'd say that tends to be more tied to more large scale systems, at least from what I've seen The UK though is apparently much colder though in AL/MS/GA than the Euro and it did make a shift south today. Yeah, I thought it was good that it ticked south today. UK seems to be doing well this winter, and I just remembered that it had a significant upgrade in the past year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5statewx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 NAM/RGEM are actually stronger with first wave than the Euro. All of the Hi-Res models are not as amped with the first wave as the Euro in the 48hour timeframe... my guess is the Euro is out to lunch here. The 18z RGEM will probably tell the tale one way or the other on how this is going to go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Ukie is a weenie run its basically a farther south colder version of the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Not liking these southern trends at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yup, UKMET is big time snows for most in NC. N NC is going to get hammered. 6" here already by hr 66 (hammering between 60/66). 850s are on the rise by then... from CLT to FAY. Upstate SC starts off as snow. All-snow at GSO through hr 72. 850 line in southeastern Guilford County down to south of HKY to Roanoke Rapids. Total weenie here. Looks like 9" here. HKY has maybe 11". And that's with 10:1 ratios, which would probably be a little higher early in the storm when it's frigid. 2m temps are in the low/mid 20s. Perfection. If you're not in extreme SE NC or the OBX and you live in NC, you're seeing all-wintry precip on this run, whether it's ice or snow. Not liking these southern trends at all. The UKMET has 7-8" for you. Maybe more with ratios? Ratios are hit-and-miss, though. EDIT: Your call map looks good, Chris. I agree with 3-6" here. We could maybe do a little better, but it's too far out to really pump up totals yet and model support is hit-and-miss for higher amounts. 3" looks like a virtual lock barring a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Not liking these southern trends at all. Southern trends? Didn't the Euro go north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 First call map: More on my Facebook page as well as the video to go with it. Please like and share https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Looking like Myrtle beach sc is gonna get snubbed again! Good luck to you guys more inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 JMO, but the NAM is probably the worst model available, even w/in 48 hours. The UKMET/EURO are normally very good in these types of split-flow patterns inside of 72 hours. The models do not get worse as we get closer. That's a bogus concept. The gfs is basically regenerating the coastal low with the energy dropping in on Tuesday evening. That's possible, especially over eastern areas, but overall the front end thump is going to be the main show. I wouldn't be surprised if the EURO is too warm at the sfc, especially over N GA/SC, as most models are much colder in that area. Given the slp track over the central deep south, there will be a decent warm nose as well, meaning sleet. I think right now the best areas for pure snow are NW of line from HKY to GSO. The triangle may do well, b/c i think the overall qpf may be a little higher in this area given being closer to the coastal low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Ukie is a weenie run its basically a farther south colder version of the euro. RGEM looks like it's going that way as well. This is a 1 wave show and I think the Euro has the right idea, but just knock it down a bit south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Lets stay on topic. There is no reason to respond to every troll post. We are watching the threads carefully today. Because some of you took the troll bait, I ended up having to delete five posts instead of one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Looking like Myrtle beach sc is gonna get snubbed again! Good luck to you guys more inland Anyone can correct me, but I believe the NAM was showing a major ice storm at MYR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Anyone can correct me, but I believe the NAM was showing a major ice storm at MYR. Indeed it was... http://coolwx.com/modelts/images/nam/current/KMYR/prec.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 12z gfs looks much better for rdu than i thought it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I don't buy snow to ZR to snow. I would imagine sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The 15z SREF is coming in a little more amped with the first wave... out to hr 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I don't buy snow to ZR to snow. I would imagine sleet. I don't buy a lot of back end snow. I can count on one hand the times I've ever seen any meaningful back end snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I don't buy snow to ZR to snow. I would imagine sleet. Good point. Very very rare to have Sn to ZR to Sn transition. Sleet to snow much more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 15z SREF quite a bit stronger with the leading low. Following the trend. This initial slug of moisture is going to put down a lot of snow for TN/NC/NW SC/N GA. The faster the precip gets in, the more snow. Thereafter, we need to see how quickly the LP consolidates and tracks through the Deep South to determine who stays all snow and where and when the sleet/IP will come into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 15z SREF quite a bit stronger with the leading low. Following the trend. sref plume snow mean increased once again to 5" for rdu. was 3" at 09z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Whoa...15Z SREF has sped up the precip for RDU almost 12-18 hours.... Has POPs increasing by mid morning on Monday... Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 12z gfs looks much better for rdu than i thought it seems "It looks much better than I thought it seems"? My head is spinning on that one, Doppler. How about this: "We won't get as much snow as I hadn't wished I'd thought I had foreseen for the day before yesterday's tomorrow." On a more serious note, I continue to like where I sit in KHKY. At this point, it doesn't matter which model you choose, Hickory gets roughly 4+ inches, and some give us a lot more. I believe that I-85 is going to be a great separator from west to east between the big snows and the lighter amounts. Maybe it will end up being I-77, but I'll go with the other for now. Good thing winter storms know how to read interstate highway signs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 15z SREF quite a bit stronger with the leading low. Following the trend. Bit faster, too. It has snow in for us by mid-morning on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I don't buy a lot of back end snow. I can count on one hand the times I've ever seen any meaningful back end snow.It's not really backend like you're used to thinking. It looks like regular backside snow enhanced by the second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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