HKY_WX Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Looking at the numbers, it paints basically 6 inches along i40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 cold rain. Front end snow is gone and surface temps much warmer. only north of a rome to toccoa line roughly is below freezing. it's also much drier than last nights run. Sigh just when it looked like we were finally getting a handle on things, the euro completely throws everything back in dissarray for folks south of tn and nc. So when is the Euro good? It seems people say it isn't that great in the long range, and mid range, and now the short range? Things were looking so much better for AL, GA, and SC just 2 days ago. Now I'm extremely skeptical of anything but rain and maybe a little ice that will be non-significant We were just looking at some solid front-end snow here just 2 days ago. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Can the euro be trusted at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I thought we were getting close to a consensus with the GFS/GEFS/CMC/CMC-ENS and the 0z run of the Euro/EPS. But now we are back to not knowing anything. Usually the EPS at this range doesn't differ that much from it's Op. Changes were evident around 48 hours, maybe sooner. Long way to go. I think the 1 wave solution is where we're heading. N GA and upstate SC still in the game for sure, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 well I'm not ready to bite on it yet though since it's just one run. No sense in jumping off of cliffs because one run of one model doesn't look good. No, you are right. I guess after so many fails in the past, it's easier to just throw the towel in just to keep from getting disappointed. I haven't jumped quite yet. I still think as you have pointed out so well earlier, wetbulbing is going to help our area out more than depicted. Fingers crossed and on to the next round of madness at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I remember DT saying yesterday something to the effect of "if you think there is going to be more than 1 low/wave, you're a fooking idiot" DT prevails? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 BTW, the 12z GEFS panels look friggin' awesome. Nearly all plaster TN and NC, and several still hit N AL/MS/GA/SC with a ton of snow/mix/ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Too bad Wxbell doesn't want to load the good UK maps. Has anyone one seen the 12z UK maps from another vendor yet? EDIT: I mean the 0z UK maps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Thought we might've lost some QPF but it looks like we're just about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Some good agreement at 60 hours with the Uk/Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The difference with the Euro happens at 48hrs with the lead wave in the plains... it's already much stronger and more neutrally tilted than the other models at that point. How there can be that much spread between models at 42/48hrs??? Ugh.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 BTW, the 12z GEFS panels look friggin' awesome. Nearly all plaster TN and NC, and several still hit N AL/MS/GA/SC with a ton of snow/mix/ZR yeah a lot of them look good. For the sake of those south of nc/tn i hope the euro ensembles stay the course and tell us the operational run is out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I think the 1 wave solution is where we're heading. N GA and upstate SC still in the game for sure, however. Yeah, this change occurred about hour 42 on the Euro, the lead wave is much stronger and thus doesn't allow the trough to sharpen and go neutral tilt. Fine line here of trying to get both. I wish it was farther south for our forum, as I am sure the NoVA folks are going to turn on there tractor beam to pull it north more. To be honest the 50/50 and PV in actually a little stronger and a hair south of 0z, I thought if anything this would have been a little south of what it's showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 yeah a lot of them look good. For the sake of those south of nc/tn i hope the euro ensembles stay the course and tell us the operational run is out to lunch. My guess is the ensembles say the OP is an outlier right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Check out @wxbrad's Tweet: https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/566665457998901249?s=09 Model outputs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Quickly glancing at the GEFS members, not a single one out of the 20 that looks like the Op Euro. I guess we will see in an hour what the EPS says. That was the snowiest Op Euro run yet for RDU though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Quickly glancing at the GEFS members, not a single one out of the 20 that looks like the Op Euro. I guess we will see in an hour what the EPS says. That was the snowiest Op Euro run yet for RDU though. FWIW the Op Euro did some oddball stuff up in the northeast tonight too on its 12Z run...very strange...I will hold out and wait but it would not surprise me if the ensembles do not agree with it, that's a fairly unusual deal to see the Euro make a big shift this close in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I thought the Euro fell right in line with the other 12z ideas of focusing on the west to east tracking precip shield, but as others mentioned it was just a little more amped out front (with a bit more height rises out in front of the wave)....so it was warmer. I think the general idea has come together now, but there's more risk of the wintry precip line climbing north. UKMet has led the way in every sense of the word with this one. It was ahead of the other models with the more easterly placed western ridge, and more northerly tracking lead wave system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Like how much?? Need some numbers here! 6-7" for I-40 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Quickly glancing at the GEFS members, not a single one out of the 20 that looks like the Op Euro. I guess we will see in an hour what the EPS says. That was the snowiest Op Euro run yet for RDU though. Op Euro is weaker and less consolidated with the low pressure center. Nearly all of the GEFS members have a stronger LP with several more consolidated with the LP center, spitting out the widespread 1" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 FWIW the Op Euro did some oddball stuff up in the northeast tonight too on its 12Z run...very strange...I will hold out and wait but it would not surprise me if the ensembles do not agree with it, that's a fairly unusual deal to see the Euro make a big shift this close in I saw that, and the difference with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Like how much?? Need some numbers here! I took this from the MA thread. I think that's ok since it was already allowed to be posted on this site. If not please just delete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I thought the Euro fell right in line with the other 12z ideas of focusing on the west to east tracking precip shield, but as others mentioned it was just a little more amped out front (with a bit more height rises out in front of the wave)....so it was warmer. I think the general idea has come together now, but there's more risk of the wintry precip line climbing north. UKMet has led the way in every sense of the word with this one. It was ahead of the other models with the more easterly placed western ridge, and more northerly tracking lead wave system. Doesn't euro have a tendency to over amp storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Interesting map, Dunkman. 7-8" here with ratios, I guess. The WB map was lesser, but it just uses 10:1 Frankly, I'm always a little hesitant of relying on ratios to be above 10:1. It seems like that doesn't work out for us very much (exceptions being January 29-30, 2010 when we got greater than 10:1 ratios over the course of the storm and probably last January's powder storm here). I do love the surface temps being progged. I love cold storms (at the surface)! The snow will stick very easily, even during the day in mid-February, with surface temperatures in the lower or even mid 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Does anyone have any Ukie maps they can share? Based on what I'm reading it seems like it's been paving the way for the rest of the models, but Weatherbell hasn't been updating it. Edit: Nevermind, it looks like it's coming in on Weatherbell now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 When the GFS was north all day yesterday up to 6z today, it was wrong. When the EURO went south, it was all of a sudden right. NAM comes in further north at 12z, it's totally wrong. GFS goes south today (although the GEFS didn't as much) and it's right. EURO jumps north today (EPS pending) and it's wrong. lol It agrees with the UK to some extent so it's not alone, although it looks a little north of UK. Euro is the best for a reason. The changes occurred by hour 42-48, that's usually it's wheelhouse.I will say that I would suspect the NAM to be the most NW of any model at day 3. So if a model is north of that its a head scratcher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It agrees with the UK to some extent so it's not alone, although it looks a little north of UK. Euro is the best for a reason. The changes occurred by hour 42-48, that's usually it's wheelhouse. The UK though is apparently much colder though in AL/MS/GA than the Euro and it did make a shift south today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The UK though is apparently much colder though in AL/MS/GA than the Euro and it did make a shift south today. NAM any use at this range? I always thought it had a bias of being to far NW at this range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I took this from the MA thread. I think that's ok since it was already allowed to be posted on this site. If not please just delete. anyone who agrees with that map is a fool. it probably includes the snow falling currently. And 15in for N TN? Euro is really on its own at this point. It will fold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm on the other side of the coin on that. It's hard to find impartial posters. The model hugging bias is evident on both sides. I'm impartial as far as you guys all wanting snow because if you guys get rain I get snow most likely, right now I'm on the suppression train all the way with this despite the fact it will miss me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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