burgertime Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 Canadian is an I85 special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The 12Z GFS has on 2/16 an IP/ZR combo for ATL after maybe a little SN to start (more IP N/more ZR S best I can tell) from 0.75" qpf. It then gives ~1" of SN with the 2nd wave on 2/17. Reminds me of 2/2014. Would be a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 another day, another different solution for the gfs lol. It is colder than previous runs..stays right at or below 32 now in a lot of areas..even near atlanta. Still way off though of course. yup...def. further south this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Monday looks like you better cash in for TN and North Bama...Models are pushing that out quickly in that area for Tuesday, no "2nd wave" if you will. NAM looks like on its own with that being so far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The 12Z GFS has on 2/16 an IP/ZR combo for ATL after maybe a little SN to start (more IP N/more ZR S best I can tell) from 0.75" qpf. It then gives ~1" of SN with the 2nd wave on 2/17. Reminds me of 2/2014. Would be a big deal. The signal at the end is tricky, its a bit like 1/22/87 where ATL saw snow as a coastal went up the coast, it does not happen too often but it could here if the system turns the corner, right now I think it may end up to their NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The 12Z GFS has on 2/16 an IP/ZR combo for ATL after maybe a little SN to start (more IP N/more ZR S best I can tell) from 0.75" qpf. It then gives ~1" of SN with the 2nd wave on 2/17. Reminds me of 2/2014. Would be a big deal. IMHO there is growing concern for a BIG ZR event for the I-20 corridor. Could be really NASTY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Don't let Brick see this! Everything is around 25-50 miles NW of the 00z run, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm becoming more concerned with a 33 and rain result for the ATL metro that i am with a crippling storm.... JMO. That said KATL is sill on the fence concerning what we actually get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Good post by one of the well respected mets that posts in the mid Atlantic thread a ton (ers-wxman1): The NAM is as unpredictable as the most unpredictable model...especially at this range. Big issue is going to be scarcity of data from the Baja region. Not many observations out there and it's tough to know the strength of the features and energy out that way sometimes until the system is getting its act together. I worked in the southwest for many years. Yes there is satellite sampling and all that but raobs and other data is sparse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 FWIW, WxSouth posted on Twitter and Facebook that NAM is the way to go with this system. He says global models notoriously struggle with Baja lows and the NAM has really good track record with these types of systems. Says it's a very close call but that he is "risking it on the NAM." Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm becoming more concerned with a 33 and rain result for the ATL metro that i am a crippling storm.... JMO. That said KATL is sill on the fence concer in where it actually lands. They may eventually go above 32 but by the time they do precip may be over, the fact the toaster bath new GFS only shows them 33-35 means it'll easily be 29-31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Don't let Brick see this! Everything is around 25-50 miles NW of the 00z run, FWIW. Too late. Looks like the totals keep increasing a little every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm becoming more concerned with a 33 and rain result for the ATL metro that i am with a crippling storm.... JMO. That said KATL is sill on the fence concerning what we actually get. Well, I think where you are stands a better chance at the ice than the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm becoming more concerned with a 33 and rain result for the ATL metro that i am with a crippling storm.... JMO. That said KATL is sill on the fence concerning what we actually get. I could see it going either way. I think depending on timing when qpf comes in. GFS has it in there btwn 7am and 1pm. (or pretty close) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 They may eventually go above 32 but by the time they do precip may be over, the fact the toaster bath new GFS only shows them 33-35 means it'll easily be 29-31. Thanks for the opine, please post more during our event. I sincerely hope you are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The 12z UKMET is ~25-50 miles SOUTH of its hr 72 position on the 00z run last night compared to today's 12z run at hr 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Thanks for the opine, please post more during our event. I sincerely hope you are right. The 12Z MOS for ATL now has 37 at 18Z, the previous run had 42...it has a dewpoint of 10-15 too...this is easily frozen there verbatim as of now..it would initially start as sleet above 32 but they would likely wet bulb down quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 UK has the same general idea but has come south a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Well, I think where you are stands a better chance at the ice than the airport. I agree that is a saving grace being NW of the city by 15 miles and N or the airport by 40. Ice accretion doesn't really start in full force until about 29-30, that's when I notice huge problems. Hopefully I can get that low during the event if I'm getting liquid from this beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Boom. Crushed by hr 72! The UKMET still largely looks consistent! (WNC from GSO-west has some precip on the hr 60 pane, too... and I'd guess there's a little more precip after this, as well). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 FWIW, WxSouth posted on Twitter and Facebook that NAM is the way to go with this system. He says global models notoriously struggle with Baja lows and the NAM has really good track record with these types of systems. Says it's a very close call but that he is "risking it on the NAM." Interesting. If this is correct, it looks more like a major freezing rain event for a part of the I-20 corridor, as stated by Chris. The GGEM also puts down 1/2"+ of ZR in and around ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 NAM would be incredible as there is still much to come after the 84 hour mark. Cut it in half and it is still quite a major storm. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 12z GFS and 12z Canadien look pretty similar to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The GFS has a high of 21 for CLT on Thursday. If you go a bit further east where the jackpot is, Monroe only gets to 19. 19! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Boom. Crushed by hr 72! The UKMET still largely looks consistent! I think take a mix of the UKMET and EURO and you have what it will end up looking like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 NAM would be incredible as there is still much to come after the 84 hour mark. Cut it in half and it is still quite a major storm. TW The UKIE looks like 8"+ of presumably all-snow with more to come post-hr 72. Looks like RDU is mostly-snow, but probably goes over to ZR/IP by hr 72. 2m temps are very cold. Looks like at least mid-20s or maybe below for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I agree that is a saving grace being NW of the city by 15 miles and N or the airport by 40. Ice accretion doesn't really start in full force until about 29-30, that's when I notice huge problems. Hopefully I can get that low during the event if I'm getting liquid from this beast. The likely too warm GFS even has near 32 in Marietta. Also, from my own experiences in the 4 major ZR's of the 2000's as well as looking back at older storms in newspapers/NWS records, ice can accrete quite well at 31 and even close to 32 as per the 3/1971 and 1/1973 ATL ZR's. Tony even confirmed this from his personal account of 73. Now roadwise, very little ice would likely occur at 31+ outside of raised roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 GEFS about the same as the Op might be a little lighter on QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The UKIE looks like 8"+ of presumably all-snow with more to come post-hr 72. Looks like RDU is mostly-snow, but probably goes over to ZR/IP by hr 72. 2m temps are very cold. Looks like at least mid-20s or maybe below for us. Which vendor are you using, James? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 They may eventually go above 32 but by the time they do precip may be over, the fact the toaster bath new GFS only shows them 33-35 means it'll easily be 29-31. very good point and I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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