lilj4425 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 **SATURDAY AM WINTER STORM UPDATE** A high impact winter storm is on the way for the entire region. Chris Justus here, below are some quick notes from my observations on this morning's first model runs. I'll have a complete video update later today. Sunday will be bitter with highs in the teens for the mountains and around 30 for SC and GA with very windy conditions. Monday snow will develop by midday across the entire area, earlier than previously expected. This snow will not be too heavy but enough to coat the ground. Road problems begin Monday afternoon and evening as more snow continues over night with several inches expected. Tuesday is when things get more unclear and tricky. Right now I think we will have snow change to sleet and freezing rain which means ice. Roads will be impassable with ice coating several inches of snow. By Tuesday afternoon it may even rain for a bit, by like last year the rain will fall on ice coated snow so it will only compact it a little bit not wash it away. Any slush will re freeze Tuesday night as temperatures plummet into he low 20s creating ice everywhere for much of Wednesday. It's also possible for another half inch to inch of snow Tuesday night. Highs Wednesday don't get above 34-36....so expect troubled roads through at least midday Thursday. This event is for all of us, from the mountains all the way to the southern upstate. The further south you go the more ice, less snow you will get. This looks similar to last year with slightly less totals. I'll keep you posted. Confidence at 60%. Please like my page for info: Chris Justus, Meteorologist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Trends of the 12z GFS thru 42 hrs... the initial wave is trending stronger and the midwest HP is getting stronger, nosing more into Canada (stronger Baffin ridge). I'll tell you, if the baja energy captures the initial wave rather than building more off the secondary (PJ) wave while the HP is overhead, we'll be in some real business. The first wave is trending faster by 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I was thinking more IP than ZR (some ZR late ) on the 0Z Euro for N ATL & mainly major ZR S. If so, that amount of IP (as much as 3-4") would be near the 1/88 great IP & almost up to the great 2/79 IP. Fwiw, it looks similar for Fri night/Sat AM though that one will almost change drastically on later runs. sounds similar to last feb right ? It seemed like south of ATL had more zr and the north side more ip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 **SATURDAY AM WINTER STORM UPDATE** A high impact winter storm is on the way for the entire region. Chris Justus here, below are some quick notes from my observations on this morning's first model runs. I'll have a complete video update later today. Sunday will be bitter with highs in the teens for the mountains and around 30 for SC and GA with very windy conditions. Monday snow will develop by midday across the entire area, earlier than previously expected. This snow will not be too heavy but enough to coat the ground. Road problems begin Monday afternoon and evening as more snow continues over night with several inches expected. Tuesday is when things get more unclear and tricky. Right now I think we will have snow change to sleet and freezing rain which means ice. Roads will be impassable with ice coating several inches of snow. By Tuesday afternoon it may even rain for a bit, by like last year the rain will fall on ice coated snow so it will only compact it a little bit not wash it away. Any slush will re freeze Tuesday night as temperatures plummet into he low 20s creating ice everywhere for much of Wednesday. It's also possible for another half inch to inch of snow Tuesday night. Highs Wednesday don't get above 34-36....so expect troubled roads through at least midday Thursday. This event is for all of us, from the mountains all the way to the southern upstate. The further south you go the more ice, less snow you will get. This looks similar to last year with slightly less totals. I'll keep you posted. Confidence at 60%. Please like my page for info: Chris Justus, Meteorologist Sounds alot better than the current runs we've been having (atleast for Metro ATL). Models still point to mostly rain on Tuesday, but I guess he has a point with the rain adding into the already freezing cold ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DueUCMe Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 CAE Does I40 stay all snow and sleet? Is that the dividing line? prec.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 images.jpg I know right?! can someone post one of those for the pgv area I couldn't get one do you have one for Chattanooga ? Couldn't for CHA either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 sounds similar to last feb right ? It seemed like south of ATL had more zr and the north side more ip. There was definitely a stripe of nothing but IP for several hours from the Atlanta area to northern CAE to Fayetteville with last years storm, this might be similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 sounds similar to last feb right ? It seemed like south of ATL had more zr and the north side more ip. Yes, the 0Z Euro is fairly similar to the 2/2014 storm for ATL in that way best I can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I know right?! I couldn't get one Couldn't for CHA either Thx anyway, I know being east of I-95 usually means we switch to rain at some point but was just wondering how long before we could switch back as the coastal gets going off the coast and starts moving away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 sounds similar to last feb right ? It seemed like south of ATL had more zr and the north side more ip. I got quite a bit of sleet where I am last year and so far this looks like it could be another repeat. Wish it would be snow but anything is better than freezing rain at this point.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 12z GFS is dryer by 72 hrs. Seems confused? Regardless, the storm track is great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I got quite a bit of sleet where I am last year and so far this looks like it could be another repeat. Wish it would be snow but anything is better than freezing rain at this point.. I guess for Atlanta and vicinity, the best chance for snow will be on the back end. Back end snows don't usually produce a lot but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Thx anyway, I know being east of I-95 usually means we switch to rain at some point but was just wondering how long before we could switch back as the coastal gets going off the coast and starts moving away. Try this http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kpgv&nam=on&nam_mos=on&namm=on&con=on&ratio=11&max_t=on&cobb=on&compaction=on&mean_mt=on&max_mt=on&mean=on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I guess for Atlanta and vicinity, the best chance for snow will be on the back end. Back end snows don't usually produce a lot but who knows. The best chance for snow for KATL is with the front-end overunning on Monday, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 God the GFS is brutal on low level temps, so bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 2nd wave hitting central GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The best chance for snow for KATL is with the front-end overunning on Monday, IMO. so far Katl, it could start as snow, change to zr/ip, then rain, then maybe back to snow or a mix ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 rdu starts as snow for a good bit, then to ice and now at 87 back to snow as the low cranks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 12z GFS is dryer by 72 hrs. Seems confused? Regardless, the storm track is great. I think it closely resembles the 00z Canadien last night. Starts off as snow in CAE, then ice until noon, rain, then back to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 another day, another different solution for the gfs lol. It is colder than previous runs..stays right at or below 32 now in a lot of areas..even near atlanta. Still way off though of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Midlands and upstate getting the goods with that 2nd wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 God the GFS is brutal on low level temps, so bad Yeah, it's cringe-worthy. Question: Was the GEFS updated along with the operational? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 another day, another different solution for the gfs lol. It is colder than previous runs..stays right at or below 32 now in a lot of areas..even near atlanta. Still way off though of course. Its coming around to the euro, this is gonna be close to the final outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 rdu starts as snow for a good bit, then to ice and now at 87 back to snow as the low cranks Doppler, "ice" as in graupel/ip or "ice" as in zr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Can y'all do one of those graphs wit ptypes for GSP ? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yeah, it's cringe-worthy. Question: Was the GEFS updated along with the operational? No I don't believe so. I thought the GEFS upgrades were slated for later this Fiscal Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Doppler, "ice" as in graupel/ip or "ice" as in zr? zr looks like ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Try this http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kpgv&nam=on&nam_mos=on&namm=on&con=on&ratio=11&max_t=on&cobb=on&compaction=on&mean_mt=on&max_mt=on&mean=on thx that shows me as all frozen but no snow. Hope we don't get that bad of an ice storm but its been many years here without a crippling zr event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 another day, another different solution for the gfs lol. It is colder than previous runs..stays right at or below 32 now in a lot of areas..even near atlanta. Still way off though of course. For real, pretty crazy swings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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