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Feb 16th/17th/18th Winter Wx


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**SATURDAY AM WINTER STORM UPDATE** A high impact winter storm is on the way for the entire region. Chris Justus here, below are some quick notes from my observations on this morning's first model runs. I'll have a complete video update later today. Sunday will be bitter with highs in the teens for the mountains and around 30 for SC and GA with very windy conditions. Monday snow will develop by midday across the entire area, earlier than previously expected. This snow will not be too heavy but enough to coat the ground. Road problems begin Monday afternoon and evening as more snow continues over night with several inches expected. Tuesday is when things get more unclear and tricky. Right now I think we will have snow change to sleet and freezing rain which means ice. Roads will be impassable with ice coating several inches of snow. By Tuesday afternoon it may even rain for a bit, by like last year the rain will fall on ice coated snow so it will only compact it a little bit not wash it away. Any slush will re freeze Tuesday night as temperatures plummet into he low 20s creating ice everywhere for much of Wednesday. It's also possible for another half inch to inch of snow Tuesday night. Highs Wednesday don't get above 34-36....so expect troubled roads through at least midday Thursday. This event is for all of us, from the mountains all the way to the southern upstate. The further south you go the more ice, less snow you will get. This looks similar to last year with slightly less totals. I'll keep you posted. Confidence at 60%. Please like my page for info: Chris Justus, Meteorologist

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Trends of the 12z GFS thru 42 hrs... the initial wave is trending stronger and the midwest HP is getting stronger, nosing more into Canada (stronger Baffin ridge).

 

I'll tell you, if the baja energy captures the initial wave rather than building more off the secondary (PJ) wave while the HP is overhead, we'll be in some real business.  The first wave is trending faster by 54.

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I was thinking more IP than ZR (some ZR late ) on the 0Z Euro for N ATL & mainly major ZR S. If so, that amount of IP (as much as 3-4") would be near the 1/88 great IP & almost up to the great 2/79 IP. Fwiw, it looks similar for Fri night/Sat AM though that one will almost change drastically on later runs.

sounds similar to last feb right ? It seemed like south of ATL had more zr and the north side more ip.
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**SATURDAY AM WINTER STORM UPDATE** A high impact winter storm is on the way for the entire region. Chris Justus here, below are some quick notes from my observations on this morning's first model runs. I'll have a complete video update later today. Sunday will be bitter with highs in the teens for the mountains and around 30 for SC and GA with very windy conditions. Monday snow will develop by midday across the entire area, earlier than previously expected. This snow will not be too heavy but enough to coat the ground. Road problems begin Monday afternoon and evening as more snow continues over night with several inches expected. Tuesday is when things get more unclear and tricky. Right now I think we will have snow change to sleet and freezing rain which means ice. Roads will be impassable with ice coating several inches of snow. By Tuesday afternoon it may even rain for a bit, by like last year the rain will fall on ice coated snow so it will only compact it a little bit not wash it away. Any slush will re freeze Tuesday night as temperatures plummet into he low 20s creating ice everywhere for much of Wednesday. It's also possible for another half inch to inch of snow Tuesday night. Highs Wednesday don't get above 34-36....so expect troubled roads through at least midday Thursday. This event is for all of us, from the mountains all the way to the southern upstate. The further south you go the more ice, less snow you will get. This looks similar to last year with slightly less totals. I'll keep you posted. Confidence at 60%. Please like my page for info: Chris Justus, Meteorologist

 

Sounds alot better than the current runs we've been having (atleast for Metro ATL). Models still point to mostly rain on Tuesday, but I guess he has a point with the rain adding into the already freezing cold ice.

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I know right?!   :lol:

 

I couldn't get one   :(

 

Couldn't for CHA either   :(

 

Thx anyway, I know being east of I-95 usually means we switch to rain at some point but was just wondering how long before we could switch back as the coastal gets going off the coast and starts moving away.

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sounds similar to last feb right ? It seemed like south of ATL had more zr and the north side more ip.

I got quite a bit of sleet where I am last year and so far this looks like it could be another repeat. Wish it would be snow but anything is better than freezing rain at this point..

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I got quite a bit of sleet where I am last year and so far this looks like it could be another repeat. Wish it would be snow but anything is better than freezing rain at this point..

I guess for Atlanta and vicinity, the best chance for snow will be on the back end. Back end snows don't usually produce a lot but who knows.
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Thx anyway, I know being east of I-95 usually means we switch to rain at some point but was just wondering how long before we could switch back as the coastal gets going off the coast and starts moving away.

Try this  http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kpgv&nam=on&nam_mos=on&namm=on&con=on&ratio=11&max_t=on&cobb=on&compaction=on&mean_mt=on&max_mt=on&mean=on

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thx that shows me as all frozen but no snow. Hope we don't get that bad of an ice storm but its been many years here without a crippling zr event.

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