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Feb 16th/17th/18th Winter Wx


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Showing how important it is to get precip in here early enough..the 12z nam is 10 to 15 degrees colder at the surface at 18z monday than the gfs in many locations across ga and sc.

Best post IMHO. QPF arrival is super key for us in GA. If it starts early enough the cold pool will lock in line the NAM is hinting at. I still think, I agree with you, Ya likely not cold enough.

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Definitely much better than 6z. It's showing a low down around Clemson. I wonder if that explains the warmup?

 

Likely.  It has all of the Baja energy phasing in.. we're going to have more of a consolidated low running up the coast line, no warm nose that far west.  Looking like a big hit for the I-85 corridor.

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The new GFS has issues in the boundary layer, it will never be as warm as the GFS shows, with a thick overcast deck you won't go anywhere from your AM lows Monday even if the precip does not arrive til late.

Oh yeah i know, the only concern though is there  is support among some other models of the cloud cover being slower to thicken in east ga/south carolina. I'd be shocked if it got out of the 30s at all but then again i've seen setups just like this where there is more surface warming than i expected thanks to lack of cloud cover  so we'll see.

 

btw what stormfury and myself mentioned yesterday is showing up on the nam and that is a meso high forming over the carolinas thanks to the incredibly cold airmass in place. If that happens, you can certainly toss the warm up on some of the modeling out the window. Formation of meso highs over the carolinas in situations like this have caused many a model and man to be wrong in warming the damming regions up far too fast.

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For you Georgia guys, in my experience, in-situ wedging isnt even properly modeled until you get 24 hours out. I've seen models bust too warm several times, including December 2005. 

 

I was just thinking of that one.  I remember within a couple days every GFS and NAM run thereafter trended colder and colder while consistent with the low track and QPF amts.  Same with the Feb 04 storm.

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Likely.  It has all of the Baja energy phasing in.. we're going to have more of a consolidated low running up the coast line, no warm nose that far west.  Looking like a big hit for the I-85 corridor.

 

Think it was a great run for the Upstate and WNC. QPF continues to increase compared to previous runs. 

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Oh yeah i know, the only concern though is there is support among some other models of the cloud cover being slower to thicken in east ga/south carolina. I'd be shocked if it got out of the 30s at all but then again i've seen setups just like this where there is more surface warming than i expected thanks to lack of cloud cover so we'll see.

btw what stormfury and myself mentioned yesterday is showing up on the nam and that is a meso high forming over the carolinas thanks to the incredibly cold airmass in place. If that happens, you can certainly toss the warm up on some of the modeling out the window. Formation of meso highs over the carolinas in situations like this have caused many a model and man to be wrong in warming the damming regions up far too fast.

I know you will know this, but unlike the last couple of "wedges" there hasn't been much snow cover in the NE. That air is gonna be very cold and dry poring into the SE. I agree about the meso high

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I was just thinking of that one.  I remember within a couple days every GFS and NAM run thereafter trended colder and colder while consistent with the low track and QPF amts.  Same with the Feb 04 storm.

 

and with this airmass, I think the chances of it being too warm are slim to nil, provided the moisture isnt tardy. 

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For you Georgia guys, in my experience, in-situ wedging isnt even properly modeled until you get 24 hours out. I've seen models bust too warm several times, including December 2005. 

Absolutely. Honestly i think probably half of the ice storms here happened when the models would show it being too warm to have one and in virtually every case they break it down far too quick. And them not picking up on it  is especially true when it comes to a feature such as a damming meso high. It's pretty impressive to me that the nam is seeing it this far out already.

 

 

I know you will know this, but unlike the last couple of "wedges" there hasn't been much snow cover in the NE. That air is gonna be very cold and dry poring into the SE. I agree about the meso high

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I'm sure it probably helped the airmass over the carolinas to be so cold/dry. The thing folks often don't realize or they forget here in georgia is in a situation like this, you don't have to have your typical connection to the mid atlantic/new england. The airmass over the carolinas, in particular north carolina,  is more than cold enough to keep subfreezing temps locked in long enough to cause havoc with such a strong looking damming signal. If you look at the streamlines from the surface to 925mb you really could not ask for a better flow to lock in the cold here.

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Couple of notes from last nights 0z euro: 

Significant ice storm for places like the north side of Atlanta, Columbia, Florence. Pretty much right along 20. 

Nashville is the new Boston but without all the m***holes. 

Nice ratios to begin the event across much of NC. EuroWX spit out 13:1. Close to half a foot in CLT proper. 

Still have 50% of the EPS members showing 6+ inches.

I was thinking more IP than ZR (some ZR late ) on the 0Z Euro for N ATL & mainly major ZR S. If so, that amount of IP (as much as 3-4") would be near the 1/88 great IP & almost up to the great 2/79 IP. Fwiw, it looks similar for Fri night/Sat AM though that one will almost change drastically on later runs.

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