deltadog03 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Showing how important it is to get precip in here early enough..the 12z nam is 10 to 15 degrees colder at the surface at 18z monday than the gfs in many locations across ga and sc.Best post IMHO. QPF arrival is super key for us in GA. If it starts early enough the cold pool will lock in line the NAM is hinting at. I still think, I agree with you, Ya likely not cold enough. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Definitely much better than 6z. It's showing a low down around Clemson. I wonder if that explains the warmup? Likely. It has all of the Baja energy phasing in.. we're going to have more of a consolidated low running up the coast line, no warm nose that far west. Looking like a big hit for the I-85 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 For you Georgia guys, in my experience, in-situ wedging isnt even properly modeled until you get 24 hours out. I've seen models bust too warm several times, including December 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Here's the nam (12 and 06) for CAE..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The new GFS has issues in the boundary layer, it will never be as warm as the GFS shows, with a thick overcast deck you won't go anywhere from your AM lows Monday even if the precip does not arrive til late. Oh yeah i know, the only concern though is there is support among some other models of the cloud cover being slower to thicken in east ga/south carolina. I'd be shocked if it got out of the 30s at all but then again i've seen setups just like this where there is more surface warming than i expected thanks to lack of cloud cover so we'll see. btw what stormfury and myself mentioned yesterday is showing up on the nam and that is a meso high forming over the carolinas thanks to the incredibly cold airmass in place. If that happens, you can certainly toss the warm up on some of the modeling out the window. Formation of meso highs over the carolinas in situations like this have caused many a model and man to be wrong in warming the damming regions up far too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 For you Georgia guys, in my experience, in-situ wedging isnt even properly modeled until you get 24 hours out. I've seen models bust too warm several times, including December 2005.I agree fully. NAM used to be the best with that. LolSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 For you Georgia guys, in my experience, in-situ wedging isnt even properly modeled until you get 24 hours out. I've seen models bust too warm several times, including December 2005. I was just thinking of that one. I remember within a couple days every GFS and NAM run thereafter trended colder and colder while consistent with the low track and QPF amts. Same with the Feb 04 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Likely. It has all of the Baja energy phasing in.. we're going to have more of a consolidated low running up the coast line, no warm nose that far west. Looking like a big hit for the I-85 corridor. Think it was a great run for the Upstate and WNC. QPF continues to increase compared to previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Showing how important it is to get precip in here early enough..the 12z nam is 10 to 15 degrees colder at the surface at 18z monday than the gfs in many locations across ga and sc. Would an earlier arrival mean more SN/IP vs. ZR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Oh yeah i know, the only concern though is there is support among some other models of the cloud cover being slower to thicken in east ga/south carolina. I'd be shocked if it got out of the 30s at all but then again i've seen setups just like this where there is more surface warming than i expected thanks to lack of cloud cover so we'll see. btw what stormfury and myself mentioned yesterday is showing up on the nam and that is a meso high forming over the carolinas thanks to the incredibly cold airmass in place. If that happens, you can certainly toss the warm up on some of the modeling out the window. Formation of meso highs over the carolinas in situations like this have caused many a model and man to be wrong in warming the damming regions up far too fast. I know you will know this, but unlike the last couple of "wedges" there hasn't been much snow cover in the NE. That air is gonna be very cold and dry poring into the SE. I agree about the meso high Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I was just thinking of that one. I remember within a couple days every GFS and NAM run thereafter trended colder and colder while consistent with the low track and QPF amts. Same with the Feb 04 storm. and with this airmass, I think the chances of it being too warm are slim to nil, provided the moisture isnt tardy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 What a mess in the NAM for RDU only a few inches of snow but a lot of sleet and freezing rain certainly an ice storm if the 32 line hangs just east the NAM would be really bad around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The RGEM at 48 hours looks identical to the NAM, the RGEM tends to be slightly overamped at 48, again, more argument that the GFS/GEM Euro may be flatter than the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Remember though that the NAM does pretty well inside 48 hours but after than not so much. I think it is over-amping this and the flatter gfs (or weaker EURO) will be closer to verifying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yay all about timing. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 hi res NAM appears to be showing surface temps that you would expect on Monday evening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Posted on Brad Panovich's twitter page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farleydawg79 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Do you have one of those for ATL? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yep that is nasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 For you Georgia guys, in my experience, in-situ wedging isnt even properly modeled until you get 24 hours out. I've seen models bust too warm several times, including December 2005. Absolutely. Honestly i think probably half of the ice storms here happened when the models would show it being too warm to have one and in virtually every case they break it down far too quick. And them not picking up on it is especially true when it comes to a feature such as a damming meso high. It's pretty impressive to me that the nam is seeing it this far out already. I know you will know this, but unlike the last couple of "wedges" there hasn't been much snow cover in the NE. That air is gonna be very cold and dry poring into the SE. I agree about the meso high Sent from my iPhone I'm sure it probably helped the airmass over the carolinas to be so cold/dry. The thing folks often don't realize or they forget here in georgia is in a situation like this, you don't have to have your typical connection to the mid atlantic/new england. The airmass over the carolinas, in particular north carolina, is more than cold enough to keep subfreezing temps locked in long enough to cause havoc with such a strong looking damming signal. If you look at the streamlines from the surface to 925mb you really could not ask for a better flow to lock in the cold here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 10481965_827280967344361_2813388725249198042_o.png Posted on Brad Panovich's twitter page. Yeah the SREF also has that same warm nose the NAM has. with a dying LP over upstate SC. I'm rooting for the consolidated low solution ala the 0z NAVGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 CAE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yeah the SREF also has that same warm nose the NAM has. with a dying LP over upstate SC. I dont necessarily believe the ZR. I think we might stick with IP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 CAE prec.png CAE prec.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 CAE prec.png Over 12 hours of freezing rain depicted right there, could be crippling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 can someone post one of those for the pgv area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Couple of notes from last nights 0z euro: Significant ice storm for places like the north side of Atlanta, Columbia, Florence. Pretty much right along 20. Nashville is the new Boston but without all the m***holes. Nice ratios to begin the event across much of NC. EuroWX spit out 13:1. Close to half a foot in CLT proper. Still have 50% of the EPS members showing 6+ inches. I was thinking more IP than ZR (some ZR late ) on the 0Z Euro for N ATL & mainly major ZR S. If so, that amount of IP (as much as 3-4") would be near the 1/88 great IP & almost up to the great 2/79 IP. Fwiw, it looks similar for Fri night/Sat AM though that one will almost change drastically on later runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 do you have one for Chattanooga ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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