calculus1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 SREF plumes are out. Gso just over 5 inches. KHKY mean is at 6.38 by the end of the run. Lol, ok I guess statistically speaking it's very close... but from a weenie's eyes it's not close at all! Just so as you see that. I'm tempering the rose-colored glasses of weenieism with cold hard statistical facts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Just like last Feb's storm, the SREF delivers the eye candy. Even shows a decent probability of seeing my foot. It nails areas along and W of I-85. .gif[/img] Wow! Has been trending this way. Thanks for posting!! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 KAVL plumes also around 5" with one member giving us 20" lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 nam much wetter thru 51, snow in nc where on the 6z run it was dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 precip quicker thru 57, snow in upper half of sc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Looks like it's already snowing, albeit lightly, by 10AM Monday in Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 nam is quite a bit colder thanks to more precip. instead of mid 30s at 18z mon, it's now 29 or 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 nam is quite a bit colder thanks to more precip. instead of mid 30s at 18z mon, it's now 29 or 30. Same thing we saw yesterday until 18z, honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Nam is about to phase to bring us round two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Nam is about to phase to bring us round two. Yes, all of the Baja energy has moved in and the PJ is further east, which is good. The farther west that "lobes" out, the more WAA. Better to have the Baja energy move in faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Same thing we saw yesterday until 18z, honestly. yep. it's still not seeing the cooling right though. Temp here is 32/33 with dewpoint of 8 so temps here when precip starts...so should drop to 26 to 28. nam has it around 30. I'm really want to see a solution that handles this dry air/evaporation more correctly though. It's going to play such a huge role. regardless, it now has freezing rain here through hour 72. models are trying to slowly come around..still several degrees too warm though imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 NAM drops a quick 3 or 4 inches of snow in my back yard on Monday and then hammers me with 1/2+ of freezing rain monday night/tuesday morning... There still several scenario's on the table but it's looking pretty likely that this could be a historic winter storm for the South east. Edit: Make that over 1 inch of freezing rain here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 QPF bomb incoming on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 NAM is a raging snowstorm for areas along and W of I-85. Mix back to RDU. EDIT.. show a big warm nose between 700 and 850mb. But it's the end of the NAM run so who cares? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This run is so close for the triad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 NAM is a raging snowstorm for areas along and W of I-85. Mix back to RDU. EDIT.. show a big warm nose between 700 and 850mb. over amped NAM sends the 850 freezing line to the nc/tenn border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 NAM drops a quick 3 or 4 inches of snow in my back yard on Monday and then hammers me with 1/2+ of freezing rain monday night/tuesday morning... There still several scenario's on the table but it's looking pretty likely that this could be a historic winter storm for the South east. ignoring the obvious problems with it's precip fields at this range, it keeps my location now at or below freezing through 81 hours as it finally starts to see the cold air banked up against the mountains. so taking into consideration it's still a few degrees too warm and this is a huge winter storm for a wider area still than it's showing. i think pretty much anywhere north of i-20 has a shot at staying below freezing, with only erosion toward the end with latent heat release. further north with easterly flow and extremely cold temps in the carolinas, i don't see that being enough to warm temps up before a hell of a lot of precip falls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 NAM is a raging snowstorm for areas along and W of I-85. Mix back to RDU. EDIT.. show a big warm nose between 700 and 850mb. But it's the end of the NAM run so who cares? Ground zero around here!! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 ignoring the obvious problems with it's precip fields at this range, it keeps my location now at or below freezing through 81 hours as it finally starts to see the cold air banked up against the mountains. so taking into consideration it's still a few degrees too warm and this is a huge winter storm for a wider area still than it's showing. i think pretty much anywhere north of i-20 has a shot at staying below freezing, with only erosion toward the end with latent heat release. further north with easterly flow and extremely cold temps in the carolinas, i don't see that being enough to warm temps up before a hell of a lot of precip falls and as usual over amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 over amped NAM sends the 850 freezing line to the nc/tenn border. I think the GFS is coming in flatter for sure, I thought that last night too and it did not but generally you can take the NAM's idea at 78-84 and the GFS is flatter 95 out of 100 times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 over amped NAM sends the 850 freezing line to the nc/tenn border. It's actually better than the 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 12Z NAM snowfall map from TT through hour 84, but I'm not sure how it handles sleet and/or freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It's actually better than the 6z. Definitely much better than 6z. It's showing a low down around Clemson. I wonder if that explains the warmup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 and as usual over amped. yeah it's pretty safe bet and god i hope so as it drops 2 to 3 inches of precip. I don't want to go 2 weeks without power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This includes a possible second storm the following week. It's not over after this one! WOW JWow! With the temperatures remaining very cold AFTER the 1st system, any snow on the ground will still be around for the next potential system. This is awesome for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 US National Weather Service Raleigh NC 5 mins · Why so much uncertainty still for Tuesday’s forecast? The image below shows several possible scenarios for the daytime Tuesday, based on 4 different models that were generated early Saturday morning. The blue lines show sea level pressure, black lines help depict upper level winds and temps, and the background image conveys moisture availability. While it’s not depicted in this image, right now, nearly all models show some light snow accumulation occurring across much of c... See More Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Showing how important it is to get precip in here early enough..the 12z nam is 10 to 15 degrees colder at the surface at 18z monday than the gfs in many locations across ga and sc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 12Z NAM snowfall map from TT through hour 84, but I'm not sure how it handles sleet and/or freezing rain. Most definitely not the case verbatim as it had a +5C warm nose up into W NC for half of it. Would be mostly IP/ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Showing how important it is to get precip in here early enough..the 12z nam is 10 to 15 degrees colder at the surface at 18z monday than the gfs in many locations across ga and sc. The new GFS has issues in the boundary layer, it will never be as warm as the GFS shows, with a thick overcast deck you won't go anywhere from your AM lows Monday even if the precip does not arrive til late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 CAE holds with their discussion .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURETRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE BULK OF THE MOISTUREAND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.THE DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL ALSO TAKE TIME TO OVERCOME. WE HAVEFORECASTED CHANCE POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON BECOMING LIKELY MONDAYNIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE COLD AIR IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMSUPPORTS WINTER-TYPE PRECIPITATION AT THE ONSET. MODEL FORECASTSOUNDINGS SUPPORT A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN MAINLY NORTH OF ALINE EXTENDING THROUGH EDGEFIELD...AIKEN...ORANGEBURG ANDMANNING. THE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT DISPLAYED BY THE GFS INDICATEDA POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION. THE ECMWF SHOWEDSOMEWHAT LESS LIFT WITH MOISTURE NOT AS DEEP IN THE NORTH PART OFTHE FORECAST AREA WHERE SURFACE WET-BULB TEMPERATURES WILL BELOWEST. THE MODELS HAVE HAD LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THEEVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED DRIER WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYSTEMFARTHER OFFSHORE SO WE HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THAT DAY. THE LATESTRUNS DO NOT INDICATE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITHA CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM AS SOME RUNS THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE SHOWN.WE HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWFKEEP THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM JUSTWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.THE PATTERN SUPPORTS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGHTHE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS DISPLAY THE COLDESTTEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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