Tacoma Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 still think this will tick north but hopefully not to far or you will be in the rain part of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 One of the big factors monday will be precip timing and cloud cover for parts of north ga and south carolina...namely between i-85 and i-20. The 0z and especially the 06z gfs is absurdly warm at the surface monday afternoon across a fair part of north ga and sc thanks in part to thin cloud cover and a later arrival of precip. It has surface temps rising to the mid to even upper 40s in places. This is by far the warmest of any model. I'll just say it, If it gets that warm it's probably over. The nam on the other hand never gets much above freezing all day thanks in part to it having the initial precip axis further south across north ga/sc where as the gfs has it across tn/nc. Euro seems to agree with the gfs, although it's surface temps only get into the mid to upper 30s or so then of course it drops temps back into the upper 20s most areas north of atlanta to columbia by 0z tue. canadian's precip/cloud cover is a compromise between the nam/gfs and it keeps temps into the mid to upper 30s. Areas that stay clouded over, see temp staying below freezing or slightly above. Even though I believe the gfs is way over done with surface temps monday I can't completely rule it out. but if temps do manage to get into the 40s, it's going to be hard pressed to get much below freezing in some areas of ga/sc even with dewpoints in the single digits. Really want to see that precip start early as possible or get a thick cloud cover in here monday am. i think as long as temps don't get much above 36 to 38 subfreezing temps are more than likely. Frustrating position to be in since areas just west and north of here won't have this problem with earlier arrival of precip and/or cloud cover areas to the east are colder and drier and in fact will have a chance to cool before precip even arrives. fwiw, the 06z nam came in colder here now managing to keep temps slightly below freezing a fair bit longer. Even though if precip arrives as early as the nam, it's going to be quite a bit colder than it shows with wetbulb effects. Also, the 06z gfs does now manage to turn winds easterly like the nam has been doing for a while vs it's light southerly flow at the surface in previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 still think this will tick north but hopefully not to far or you will be in the rain part of the storm. Yeah, it's hard to imagine this not ticking NW some, when has there ever been a storm in the SE that hasn't ticked NW at day 3, almost everytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Euro says Nashville has 30" of snow in one week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Excuse me, 38". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farleydawg79 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Excuse me, 38". That's insane... While parts of NGA (I-20) gets nothing (or little to nothing). Man you got to hate the cut off. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Another key player is the HP out in the atlantic. It's stronger on the GFS/GEFS v/s Euro/EPS which helps keep things NW on the GEFS/GFS. Since we haven't had any events this year I have no clue which model has been handling that feature better this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Euro says Nashville has 30" of snow in one week. WOW!! that's incredible to show that much snow there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yeah, it's hard to imagine this not ticking NW some, when has there ever been a storm in the SE that hasn't ticked NW at day 3, almost everytime. Well, if the 12z euro holds and the gfs caves towards it like Matt speculated then I think we may not see much of that. To your point though we are at day-3 so next 2 12hr runs may tell the tale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Couple of notes from last nights 0z euro: Significant ice storm for places like the north side of Atlanta, Columbia, Florence. Pretty much right along 20. Nashville is the new Boston but without all the m***holes. Nice ratios to begin the event across much of NC. EuroWX spit out 13:1. Close to half a foot in CLT proper. Still have 50% of the EPS members showing 6+ inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 just read thru the runs from last night after 00z gfs. great to see the 06z gfs a tad colder and faster with the 2nd wave, makes rdu mostly snow with some mix in the middle. if temps continue to come in cooler over the next few runs we have a great shot to stay all snow. take a blend of the euro and gfs and rdu is in a great spot 72 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Euro says Nashville has 30" of snow in one week. Here is the total snow thru 16 days from the 6z GFS ensemble mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Couple of notes from last nights 0z euro: Significant ice storm for places like the north side of Atlanta, Columbia, Florence. Pretty much right along 20. Nashville is the new Boston but without all the m***holes. Nice ratios to begin the event across much of NC. EuroWX spit out 13:1. Close to half a foot in CLT proper. Still have 50% of the EPS members showing 6+ inches. The 06z gfs agreed with the bolded for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 SREF plumes are out. Gso just over 5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Hello everyone! I hope all of you are well. Interesting system to track finally this winter. Take a look at the wv for a good view of that southwest low. The thing has been slowly west bound for the last 48 hrs or so. It is throwing up quite a bit of moisture though that should eventually become entrained in our system. Here's to hoping we get a weak slp to slowly slide along the gom and then begin to deepen after it is in the Atlantic and pulling north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This loop shows you show the 6z GEFS members have been converging on a solution. This loop of the GEFS mean runs snow totals from 12z yesterday to 6z today. Keep in mind this includes IP/ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Early Saturday morning weather update from Brad P: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 SREF plumes are out. Gso just over 5 inches. About the same down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 One of the big factors monday will be precip timing and cloud cover for parts of north ga and south carolina...namely between i-85 and i-20. The 0z and especially the 06z gfs is absurdly warm at the surface monday afternoon across a fair part of north ga and sc thanks in part to thin cloud cover and a later arrival of precip. It has surface temps rising to the mid to even upper 40s in places. This is by far the warmest of any model. I'll just say it, If it gets that warm it's probably over. The nam on the other hand never gets much above freezing all day thanks in part to it having the initial precip axis further south across north ga/sc where as the gfs has it across tn/nc. Euro seems to agree with the gfs, although it's surface temps only get into the mid to upper 30s or so then of course it drops temps back into the upper 20s most areas north of atlanta to columbia by 0z tue. canadian's precip/cloud cover is a compromise between the nam/gfs and it keeps temps into the mid to upper 30s. Areas that stay clouded over, see temp staying below freezing or slightly above. Even though I believe the gfs is way over done with surface temps monday I can't completely rule it out. but if temps do manage to get into the 40s, it's going to be hard pressed to get much below freezing in some areas of ga/sc even with dewpoints in the single digits. Really want to see that precip start early as possible or get a thick cloud cover in here monday am. i think as long as temps don't get much above 36 to 38 subfreezing temps are more than likely. Frustrating position to be in since areas just west and north of here won't have this problem with earlier arrival of precip and/or cloud cover areas to the east are colder and drier and in fact will have a chance to cool before precip even arrives. fwiw, the 06z nam came in colder here now managing to keep temps slightly below freezing a fair bit longer. Even though if precip arrives as early as the nam, it's going to be quite a bit colder than it shows with wetbulb effects. Also, the 06z gfs does now manage to turn winds easterly like the nam has been doing for a while vs it's light southerly flow at the surface in previous runs. Good post! Temps always a concern in our area! We need the perfect trifecta: clear sky's till right at sunrise, then thick clouds roll in, then precip start befor noon, and we are set! If we had clear or very light cirrus Sunday night, I think we could do upper teens? That's a long climb to get through the 30s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Here is the total snow thru 16 days from the 6z GFS ensemble mean Wow. Really building on the totals in WNC and SWVA. Overall very good for the entire state of NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 About the same down here. Does this cover all of both "waves" of precip? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Median QPF on the SREF by the end of its run is 1.24" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Wow. Really building on the totals in WNC and SWVA. Overall very good for the entire state of NC This includes a possible second storm the following week. It's not over after this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Seriously? We're comparing correlation numbers where 1 is the maximum possible value. ECMWF comes in at r = 0.982 and GFS is at r = 0.973. That's a difference of 0.009 in correlation value. By what measure is that "not even close"? Lol, ok I guess statistically speaking it's very close... but from a weenie's eyes it's not close at all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 sref mean snow up to 3" for rdu thru the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 How far out does the SREF go? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 just read thru the runs from last night after 00z gfs. great to see the 06z gfs a tad colder and faster with the 2nd wave, makes rdu mostly snow with some mix in the middle. if temps continue to come in cooler over the next few runs we have a great shot to stay all snow. take a blend of the euro and gfs and rdu is in a great spot 72 hrs out. Yes, that is what I have been saying I think will happen, a blend of the models and things ending up somewhere in the middle. I think we look great right now if that happens. It looks like the ensemble means keep putting out increasing snow totals, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Median QPF on the SREF by the end of its run is 1.24" Just like last Feb's storm, the SREF delivers the eye candy. Even shows a decent probability of seeing my foot. It nails areas along and W of I-85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 How far out does the SREF go? TW tues 00z, users can see their sref plumes from this site. just click your location on the map. then click total-sno http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20150214&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=RDU&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=4&mLAT=37.77478874678&mLON=-96.042896875&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 CAE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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