Smoked Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Looked at sounding data for Raleigh for 6Z GFS. Looks like all snow til 84-87 hour time frame yielding up to 0.5 inches before changeover to ice with around 0.3 liquid equivalent of ice falling til around the 93 hour, with around an inch of snow to top it of on the backside. Just thought I'd share. Hopefully this one works out for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farleydawg79 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I said it before and I'll say it again. Today we will start to see the real picture. I think you take the Euro temps drop it by 2 degrees and the GFS moisture and we're looking more at what plays out. This cold wedge is strong and I think the GFS is moving it out too fast letting too much WAA spill in. I agree...I truly think the GFS is overplaying the WAA Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 GFS is bothersome for northern tier zones with qpf getting in. Do you guys think because it was 6z or was it actually feasible? 3 runs of GFS showing significant event now 6z looks like crap. Oy. Here's to 12z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Winter Storm Watches being hoisted for AR, TN, MS, & AL. http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=Winter%20Storm%20Watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Always fun to see the dgex back in fantasy land from the 6z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The 0Z Euro looks to me like it is giving on Mon-Mon night a major IP (~3-4" from ~0.85" qpf) for much of N ATL with major ZR in S ATL from nearly 1" qpf! The IP would be the worst since the great 1/88 IP. It also threatens another similar storm for Fri night by the way fwiw. Wow! Weak Niño finally acting like a classic one! Also, the MJO prog of inside circle in/near good phases consistent with long period of cold. The upcoming week+ is about as favorable and exciting a pattern as I can remember seeing! One can't ask for more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 6z GFS snow coverage at 96 hours: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=02&model_dd=14&model_init_hh=06&fhour=96¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I said it before and I'll say it again. Today we will start to see the real picture. I think you take the Euro temps drop it by 2 degrees and the GFS moisture and we're looking more at what plays out. This cold wedge is strong and I think the GFS is moving it out too fast letting too much WAA spill in. I think we will end up somewhere in the middle with all the precip and tracks. Looks like there is going to be a winter storm either way. If you take a blend of everything, I think RDU is going to have mostly snow with some ice mixed in at times. But looks like at least 4 inches of snow with some ice at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I honestly wouldn't the surprised if everything starts trending toward the SREF. GSP loves that model for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 So here's the 6z GFS at hour 102 48 hour total precip: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=02&model_dd=14&model_init_hh=06&fhour=102¶meter=PCPIN&level=48&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false And here is the total snow coverage at hr 102: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=02&model_dd=14&model_init_hh=06&fhour=102¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It has only been below 0 one time in Raleigh in February. 2/14/1899 following the great blizzard where it hit -1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Lol at the DGEX. I mean it has to get one right sometime! The GFS took some moisture away from my area but I think either way a lot of people are set up for their first significant storm this year. Hey and there may be even more in the future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 1 thing I see on all the models is a stripe of snow going west to east going across the foothill on to the piedmont areas. This will not happen because of the interaction of the mountains. IIf the moisture orientaion was more SW to NE then I could see the models getting it close to right, because you would see the lift up against the mountains . I would expect the models to start to show more moisture east of foothills. Unless the low turns the corner and throws moisture up against the mountains giving the foothills lee side enhancement . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 1 thing I see on all the models is a stripe of snow going west to east going across the foothill on to the piedmont areas. This will not happen because of the interaction of the mountains. IIf the moisture orientaion was more SW to NE then I could see the models getting it close to right, because you would see the lift up against the mountains . I would expect the models to start to show more moisture east of foothills. Unless the low turns the corner and throws moisture up against the mountains giving the foothills lee side enhancement . I was thinking this storm was out of the gulf which would send the moisture sw to ne or is there two waves one due east like you say and the 2nd wave out of the gulf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 1 thing I see on all the models is a stripe of snow going west to east going across the foothill on to the piedmont areas. This will not happen because of the interaction of the mountains. IIf the moisture orientaion was more SW to NE then I could see the models getting it close to right, because you would see the lift up against the mountains . I would expect the models to start to show more moisture east of foothills. Unless the low turns the corner and throws moisture up against the mountains giving the foothills lee side enhancement . As long as we get snow it doesn't matter. All we have seen is a flurry and black ice after a rain. Business about to pick up in next few weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 New GFS gives me around .9" of probably sleet before the temps rise with ENE winds. I'll take my chances that doesn't happen. We haven't had a good sleet storm since 88 so I wouldn't mind although I would prefer a plastering of snow. I need to buy a sled today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I don't think I've ever seen a model run give us a foot of snow from a CLIPPER. Teens, too. Looks like we might sleet at the end once it gets amped up right over us, but whatever. EDIT: Looks like 14" for us. Temps in the upper teens. Might be more snow than that with high-ratios early on. Okay, time to look away... that's NOT going to happen. time to cash out and call it a winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 RNK has really backed off here, last night had 70% chance! This morning they dropped it down to 40% chance! WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SNOW...MAINLYIN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THELOWER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT..MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENTCHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Ok, after seeing the NWS forecast for my area, I've come to two conclusions: Either the NWS doesn't buy in there being a warm nose above the surface to allow for freezing rain or they're truly hardcore weather weenies. I've seen no mention of freezing rain this morning. I've only seen snow,sleet, and rain mentioned. Marietta posted this yesterday I believe, apparently their thoughts haven't changed much since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 6z GEFS mean snowfall. The EPS and GEFS agree for the most part about the first wave/overrunning. For the coastal, the EPS has the coastal SE and jackpots the I95 corridor and the GEFS jackpots the I85-I77 corridor. So that's roughly what a 100-150 miles difference at day 3 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The only discernible difference between the 0z and 6z GFS is that the Baja low remains slightly stronger for slightly longer as the phase is taking place. But as you can tell, the resulting changes can be pretty significant. NAM really dives the northern branch energy south into the Baja energy by the end of the run. GEM abandoned the idea of keeping the Baja low trapped out west, but it and especially the Euro really weaken that energy as it moves eastward, so you get very little from the 'second' wave. UKMET remains consistent with itself in showing an amplified initial system. In all honesty, after reviewing everything (on one cup of coffee, mind you), I think the 6z GFS began to step to the Euro solution. If that trend continues, many folks could wind up relying on the initial wave before all is said and done, and in the Carolinas, that might get tricky the further north you go. Having said that, expect some model swings over the next 36 hours still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Euro Ens mean qpf increased from previous run for the early, colder precip. In general, the American models are keying more on the later, warmer precip while the foreign models are keying more on the earlier, colder precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Ok, after seeing the NWS forecast for my area, I've come to two conclusions: Either the NWS doesn't buy in there being a warm nose above the surface to allow for freezing rain or they're truly hardcore weather weenies. I've seen no mention of freezing rain this morning. I've only seen snow,sleet, and rain mentioned. Marietta posted this yesterday I believe, apparently their thoughts haven't changed much since. GSP gives me snow, IP, ZR, and rain. Washington's Birthday A 50 percent chance of snow, mainly after 11am. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Calm wind becoming south around 6 mph in the afternoon. Monday Night A chance of snow before 3am, then sleet likely, possibly mixed with snow. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Tuesday Freezing rain and sleet likely before 7am, then freezing rain likely between 7am and noon, then rain likely after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Tuesday Night A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 EPS Control run has some stupid high snowfall total number for the 74 corridor over the next week. Something like 17 or 18 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Euro Ens mean qpf increased from previous run for the early, colder precip. In general, the American models are keying more on the later, warmer precip while the foreign models are keying more on the earlier, colder precip Yeah, just comparing the 0z/12z EPS, the 0z has 2" to GSO/CLT by 8pm Monday, the 12z run only had an inch. It might just be quicker, but that's really good for us. Edit: Per EuroWx snow calculation which takes into account ratios, CLT has 3.4" of snow by 8pm Monday and finishes with 5.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Euro Ens mean qpf increased from previous run for the early, colder precip. In general, the American models are keying more on the later, warmer precip while the foreign models are keying more on the earlier, colder precip This sums everything up well. Let's not forget that the Euro is still the King for the 3 day(72 hour) timeframe and it's not even close.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This sums everything up well. Let's not forget that the Euro is still the King for the 3 day(72 hour) timeframe and it's not even close.... Seriously? We're comparing correlation numbers where 1 is the maximum possible value. ECMWF comes in at r = 0.982 and GFS is at r = 0.973. That's a difference of 0.009 in correlation value. By what measure is that "not even close"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 GSP NWS has learned that predicting snow or ice is near impossible in the SE. So, they always lean towards skepticism. Can't say that I blame them. it seems with what all the models are showing and we're within 3 days that a winter storm is in line, just a matter of how much snow, ice or freezing rain for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 RNK has really backed off here, last night had 70% chance! This morning they dropped it down to 40% chance! WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SNOW...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT. .MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S Yes, Frosty is whining again... He's to far north.. lol He's on the outside looking in!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 6z GEFS has some real crushers for the south. Most of the members have converged on the snowfall centered on a line from AR through the middle of TN and into NC before turning NE. Again, some drift that a bit north or south of that line. BTW I'm noticing they are also picking up on the second threat in 7 or 8 days, which the Euro shows as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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