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Feb 16th/17th/18th Winter Wx


burgertime

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Looked at sounding data for Raleigh for 6Z GFS. Looks like all snow til 84-87 hour time frame yielding up to 0.5 inches before changeover to ice with around 0.3 liquid equivalent of ice falling til around the 93 hour, with around an inch of snow to top it of on the backside. Just thought I'd share. Hopefully this one works out for all.

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I said it before and I'll say it again. Today we will start to see the real picture. I think you take the Euro temps drop it by 2 degrees and the GFS moisture and we're looking more at what plays out. This cold wedge is strong and I think the GFS is moving it out too fast letting too much WAA spill in.

I agree...I truly think the GFS is overplaying the WAA

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The 0Z Euro looks to me like it is giving on Mon-Mon night a major IP (~3-4" from ~0.85" qpf) for much of N ATL with major ZR in S ATL from nearly 1" qpf! The IP would be the worst since the great 1/88 IP. It also threatens another similar storm for Fri night by the way fwiw. Wow!

Weak Niño finally acting like a classic one! Also, the MJO prog of inside circle in/near good phases consistent with long period of cold. The upcoming week+ is about as favorable and exciting a pattern as I can remember seeing! One can't ask for more.

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I said it before and I'll say it again. Today we will start to see the real picture. I think you take the Euro temps drop it by 2 degrees and the GFS moisture and we're looking more at what plays out. This cold wedge is strong and I think the GFS is moving it out too fast letting too much WAA spill in.

I think we will end up somewhere in the middle with all the precip and tracks. Looks like there is going to be a winter storm either way. If you take a blend of everything, I think RDU is going to have mostly snow with some ice mixed in at times. But looks like at least 4 inches of snow with some ice at least.

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1 thing I see on all the models is a stripe of snow going west to east going across the foothill on to the piedmont areas. This will not happen because of the interaction of the mountains.

IIf the moisture orientaion was more SW to NE then I could see the models getting it close to right, because you would see the lift up against the mountains . I would expect the models to start to show more moisture east of foothills. Unless the low turns the corner and throws moisture up against the mountains giving the foothills lee side enhancement .

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1 thing I see on all the models is a stripe of snow going west to east going across the foothill on to the piedmont areas. This will not happen because of the interaction of the mountains.

IIf the moisture orientaion was more SW to NE then I could see the models getting it close to right, because you would see the lift up against the mountains . I would expect the models to start to show more moisture east of foothills. Unless the low turns the corner and throws moisture up against the mountains giving the foothills lee side enhancement .

I was thinking this storm was out of the gulf which would send the moisture sw to ne or is there two waves one due east like you say and the 2nd wave out of the gulf?

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1 thing I see on all the models is a stripe of snow going west to east going across the foothill on to the piedmont areas. This will not happen because of the interaction of the mountains.

IIf the moisture orientaion was more SW to NE then I could see the models getting it close to right, because you would see the lift up against the mountains . I would expect the models to start to show more moisture east of foothills. Unless the low turns the corner and throws moisture up against the mountains giving the foothills lee side enhancement .

As long as we get snow it doesn't matter. All we have seen is a flurry and black ice after a rain. Business about to pick up in next few weeks

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I don't think I've ever seen a model run give us a foot of snow from a CLIPPER. :lol:

Teens, too. Looks like we might sleet at the end once it gets amped up right over us, but whatever.

EDIT: Looks like 14" for us. Temps in the upper teens. Might be more snow than that with high-ratios early on.

Okay, time to look away... that's NOT going to happen.

time to cash out and call it a winter!

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RNK has really backed off here, last night had 70% chance! This morning they dropped it down to 40% chance!

 

WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SNOW...MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S

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Ok, after seeing the NWS forecast for my area, I've come to two conclusions: Either the NWS doesn't buy in there being a warm nose above the surface to allow for freezing rain or they're truly hardcore weather weenies. I've seen no mention of freezing rain this morning. I've only seen snow,sleet, and rain mentioned.

 

Marietta posted this yesterday I believe, apparently their thoughts haven't changed much since.

 

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6z GEFS mean snowfall.  The EPS and GEFS agree for the most part about the first wave/overrunning.

 

For the coastal, the EPS has the coastal SE and jackpots the I95 corridor and the GEFS jackpots the I85-I77 corridor.   So that's roughly what a 100-150 miles difference at day 3 or so.

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The only discernible difference between the 0z and 6z GFS is that the Baja low remains slightly stronger for slightly longer as the phase is taking place. But as you can tell, the resulting changes can be pretty significant.

 

NAM really dives the northern branch energy south into the Baja energy by the end of the run.

 

GEM abandoned the idea of keeping the Baja low trapped out west, but it and especially the Euro really weaken that energy as it moves eastward, so you get very little from the 'second' wave.

 

UKMET remains consistent with itself in showing an amplified initial system.

 

In all honesty, after reviewing everything (on one cup of coffee, mind you), I think the 6z GFS began to step to the Euro solution. If that trend continues, many folks could wind up relying on the initial wave before all is said and done, and in the Carolinas, that might get tricky the further north you go. 

 

Having said that, expect some model swings over the next 36 hours still.

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Ok, after seeing the NWS forecast for my area, I've come to two conclusions: Either the NWS doesn't buy in there being a warm nose above the surface to allow for freezing rain or they're truly hardcore weather weenies. I've seen no mention of freezing rain this morning. I've only seen snow,sleet, and rain mentioned.

Marietta posted this yesterday I believe, apparently their thoughts haven't changed much since.

GSP gives me snow, IP, ZR, and rain.

Washington's Birthday A 50 percent chance of snow, mainly after 11am. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Calm wind becoming south around 6 mph in the afternoon.

Monday Night A chance of snow before 3am, then sleet likely, possibly mixed with snow. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tuesday Freezing rain and sleet likely before 7am, then freezing rain likely between 7am and noon, then rain likely after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Tuesday Night A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

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Euro Ens mean qpf increased from previous run for the early, colder precip.  In general, the American models are keying more on the later, warmer precip while the foreign models are keying more on the earlier, colder precip

 

Yeah, just comparing the 0z/12z EPS, the 0z has 2" to GSO/CLT by 8pm Monday, the 12z run only had an inch.  It might just be quicker, but that's really good for us.  

 

Edit:  Per EuroWx snow calculation which takes into account ratios, CLT has 3.4" of snow by 8pm Monday and finishes with 5.5".

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Euro Ens mean qpf increased from previous run for the early, colder precip.  In general, the American models are keying more on the later, warmer precip while the foreign models are keying more on the earlier, colder precip

This sums everything up well.

 

Let's not forget that the Euro is still the King for the 3 day(72 hour) timeframe and it's not even close....

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This sums everything up well.

 

Let's not forget that the Euro is still the King for the 3 day(72 hour) timeframe and it's not even close....

 

Seriously?  We're comparing correlation numbers where 1 is the maximum possible value.  ECMWF comes in at r = 0.982 and GFS is at r = 0.973.  That's a difference of 0.009 in correlation value.  By what measure is that "not even close"?  :stun:

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GSP NWS has learned that predicting snow or ice is near impossible in the SE. So, they always lean towards skepticism. Can't say that I blame them.

it seems with what all the models are showing and we're within 3 days that a winter storm is in line, just a matter of how much snow, ice or freezing rain for everyone.

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RNK has really backed off here, last night had 70% chance! This morning they dropped it down to 40% chance!

 

WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SNOW...MAINLY

IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE

LOWER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT

CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S

Yes, Frosty is whining again... He's to far north.. lol  He's on the outside looking in!!! :snowwindow:

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6z GEFS has some real crushers for the south.  Most of the members have converged on the snowfall centered on a line from AR through the middle of TN and into NC before turning NE.  Again, some drift that a bit north or south of that line.

 

BTW I'm noticing they are also picking up on the second threat in 7 or 8 days, which the Euro shows as well.

 

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