jacobr57 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 jacob, how about for krdu? thanks The RDU mean is 1.92 inches, but the plumes are just taking off as the run ends. Would you mind checking for the York/Rock Hill area? The closest station reported to Rock Hill is Charlotte which has a mean of 3.47 inches. The actual maps will be out in just a few minutes so you can see more clearly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Looks like the 00z EPS mean is coming in a little less suppressed and stronger with the surface low. The mean is pretty much identical to the control run on MSLP placement at hr 78. Maybe a tiny bit north of it. The clusters at hr 84 are interesting. You've got a large group of coastal huggers along the OBX and a smaller group of lows further S/E that are weaker and probably closer to the op. Overall, pretty good agreement, and better agreement than at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5statewx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Euro Ensemble mean agrees with the operational for the most part --- Control not far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Here's the 87 hours snow total for the SREF for those that were interested. More precip to come after this from the looks of it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Looks like the 00z EPS mean is coming in a little less suppressed and stronger with the surface low. The mean is pretty much identical to the control run on MSLP placement at hr 78. Maybe a tiny bit north of it. The clusters at hr 84 are interesting. You've got a large group of coastal huggers along the OBX and a smaller group of lows further S/E that are weaker and probably closer to the op. Overall, pretty good agreement, and better agreement than at 12z. It will be interesting to see if there's any ensemble support for that second system about a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The EPS mean snowfall is practically the same as the last run for NC, at least. Totals are a little lesser for N NC, but otherwise it's about the same. All noise at this point. Wow at the SREFs, BTW. Probably overdoing things, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It will be interesting to see if there's any ensemble support for that second system about a week out. There was some support on the prior run. I think GSO had a mean of 1" or 1.5" for it at a 8-9 day lead. Here is the SREF, BTW. Definitely would be a big run for much of the NC Piedmont and foothills. That's heavy snow for a three-hour period. Almost all of NC is below freezing, so where there's not snow, there's lots of IP and/or ZR. CREDIT: AmericanWx Model Center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Does anyone know when the 00z Ukie comes out on weatherbell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Wow solid hit for VA and NC. 4" mean. So we have GFS NAM SREF UKMET NAVGEM vs GGEM and EURO. Hopefully we narrow a solution down somewhat anyhow by 12z today most likely not til 12z Sunday at the earliest. If GFS continues its track even on the 6z coming up it'll be a big step as that will be 4 runs in a row now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 How have the SREF been on verification scores this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Does anyone know when the 00z Ukie comes out on weatherbell? Soon, hopefully. It's not out yet. How have the SREF been on verification scores this winter? I would speculate not very good at this long of a range, though I honestly don't usually pay them much attention, so I might be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Been looking at the guidance tonight and here are my thoughts for KCAE.Something isn't right in my gut with it. - The 00z NAM was trying to bring some appreciable frozen precipitation in here early with the "first wave".- The 00z GFS seems to slowly shifting the Low away from a favorable track for us to avoid a change-over to rain imo.- The 00z GEFS mean actually makes the point right above a bit obvious.- The UKMET is just a big "screw you".- The Euro operational looks okay, but even that has slowly started moving slightly North on the "clown maps".- The Euro EPS looks okay. Counted around 33 members with 2 inches or greater (not all snow by any means).I noticed on the Low locations, that the EPS had a cluster of the lows coming up into GA, then shifted down into Southern GA and then went off the coast? What's up with that?All in all, something in my gut tells me that KCAE will be slightly too far South to see much off anything (if at all) other than some mix early on. Maybe .10 of ZR or so depending on the track.I really don't trust the models right now, and something seems like it's going to change tomorrow by 12-00z to pretty much take us out of the game for the most part.Overall, if you're in KCAE and you want snow/ice/sleet or whatever ptype it would be other than rain, you might want to see another set of Southward shifts and colder over the next day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The 06z NAM is improved. The low turns the corner. Big ice storm for some. The NC Piedmont starts over as significant snow, then turns over to IP/ZR at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The 06z NAM is improved. The low turns the corner. Big ice storm for some. The NC Piedmont starts over as significant snow, then turns over to IP/ZR at the end of the run.Darn beat me to it James. That baja low got shot out of a darn cannon and is more north and east at 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The 06z NAM is improved. The low turns the corner. Big ice storm for some. The NC Piedmont starts over as significant snow, then turns over to IP/ZR at the end of the run. Still pretty warm like the 00z though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Darn beat me to it James. That baja low got shot out of a darn cannon and is more north and east at 66 It's quite wet. 0.75"+ QPF here at the end of its run and it's certainly still going. Probably a raging sleet storm at that point with 925s so cold and 850s right around 0C. Yeah, Jacob, it is kind of warm, though a little cooler than 00z, I think. Surface temps are cold, anyways. Apparently, the 00z UKMET is never going to come out on WB, so I might just go to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It's quite wet. 0.75"+ QPF here at the end of its run and it's certainly still going. Probably a raging sleet storm at that point with 925s so cold and 850s right around 0C. Maybe even wet snow. Yeah, Jacob, it is kind of warm, though a little cooler than 00z, I think. Surface temps are cold, anyways. Apparently, the 00z UKMET is never going to come out on WB, so I might just go to bed. Wow 2m temps are cold down to Charlotte 0c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Let's get those 850s down a degree or two on the 6z NAM and we'll talk business. At least it's not a slider. The Doc needs to cave to the GFS at 12z and not vice versa and I'll sleep like a baby tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Let's get those 850s down a degree or two on the 6z NAM and we'll talk business. At least it's not a slider. The Doc needs to cave to the GFS at 12z and not vice versa and I'll sleep like a baby tonight. I'd rather have pingers all day then rain and 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The 06z GFS is coming in a little colder and less amped. The surface low is further SE. GSO is all-snow on this run. The jackpot is from Wilkesboro to just east of Greensboro with 6-8". Surface temps are also colder for all on this run. Good shift. Perhaps we can start converging on a solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 GSP-SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 430 AM SATURDAY...A VERY COMPLICATED SHORT RANGE FORECAST PERIOD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY SPEAKING...I USED A COMPROMISE OF THE 0Z ECMWF AND THE 0Z GFS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ON SUNDAY...SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. LLVL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW THROUGH THE DAY...SKY SHOULD BE SUNNY DURING THE MORNING WITH HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LINGERING COLD LLVL THICKNESSES AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING ON SUNDAY. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE MTNS TO 30 TO 35 DEGREES EAST. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE ON SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO FALL 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW MID JANUARY AVERAGES...EASILY EXCEEDING THE THRESHOLD FOR CONSIDERED THE FIRST DAY OF THE UPCOMING COLD WAVE. IN ADDITION...AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD FALL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD CRITICAL RH VALUES. ON MONDAY...THE CENTER OF A MODIFYING ARCTIC HIGH WILL LIKELY SLIDE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND AREA...RIDGING SW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. MIN TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE MTNS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES EAST. BY DAYBREAK...A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS EAST TX/LA AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST OFF THE ROCKIES. ECMWF/GFS INDICATE THAT DEEP MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP WITHIN AN INVERTED TROF AND REGION OF JET DIVERGENCE...EXTENDING AS FAR NE AS THE GREAT TN VALLEY BY 12Z MON. THE BAND OF FORCING AND MOISTURE SHOULD DRIFT OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MON. I WILL INCREASE POPS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH LIKELY ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN NC MTNS TO CHC ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR BY MON AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS LIGHT SNOW. ONE OF THE GREATEST CHALLENGES IS DISCERNING THE QPF ON MONDAY. GUIDANCE RANGES ARE VERY SIGNIFICANT...TO THE POINT THAT A STRAIGHT COMPROMISE APPEARS TOO HIGH. I WILL RELY ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE RESULT INDICATES THAT THE CWA COULD HAVE A COATING OF LIGHT SNOW BY SUNSET MON. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERED AS THE SECOND DAY OF THE COLD WAVE. MONDAY NIGHT...UNCERTAINTY TAKES A LEAP UPWARD. THE ECMWF INDICATES THAT DRY AIR WILL SWEEP IN FROM THE WEST...LEAVING THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA DRY BY SUNRISE. THE GFS INDICATES THAT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE REGION...AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW SLIDES ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF INSITU CAD EVENT. IT IS A VERY TOUGH CALL...BUT THE YEARS I HAVE BEEN AT THIS DESK...I HAVE SEEN THE GIVEN GFS SCENARIO OF A MILLER A/CAD PLAY OUT MORE OFTEN THAN THE ECMWF/S CLEAN LOW DEPARTURE. THIS APPROACH WILL CREATE PROBLEMS WITH P-TYPES...AS A WARM NOSE SLIDE NORTH AHEAD OF THE LOW...CREATING A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET EAST OF THE MTNS. SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH PRECIP FALLING AS A COLD RAIN EAST OF THE MTNS TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY EVENING...THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A NOREASTER AND CAA WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION....MIXING PRECIP BACK TO SNOW. ON WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL DRY...WITH LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES. STORM TOTAL SNOW AND ICE FORECAST ARE UNCERTAIN...HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT WINTER STORM CRITERIA SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. AREAS ACROSS THE LAKELANDS OF SC/GA WILL SEE MORE FREEZING RAIN...YIELDING LOWER AMOUNTS OF SNOW. THE FORECAST IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH WPC SNOW AND ICE VALUES AND CIPS ANALOG MEANS. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The 06z GFS is coming in a little colder and less amped. The surface low is further SE. GSO is all-snow on this run. The jackpot is from Wilkesboro to just east of Greensboro with 6-8". Surface temps are also colder for all on this run. Good shift. Perhaps we can start converging on a solution. The track is better for sure. I thought the 850's looked too warm, about the same as 0z. I'll check the bufkit data later to see how much ip/fzrn is involved. By the way James, thanks for the map you sent to me. If you feel like sending the 0z, I would love to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Huge improvement on the 6z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The track is better for sure. I thought the 850's looked too warm, about the same as 0z. I'll check the bufkit data later to see how much ip/fzrn is involved. By the way James, thanks for the map you sent to me. If you feel like sending the 0z, I would love to see it. This is one of those cases where a few miles could make a big difference. Randolph County certainly mixes some. I did not notice the 850 mb 0C isotherm cross Greensboro on any of the three-hour panels, though I did not look at soundings. Of course, either way, it's frozen precip of some kind as surface temps are generally in the 20s for the duration. Time to sleep again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 EPS gives CLT 30-40% chance of doing something we haven't done since 1985. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Huge improvement on the 6z GFSlooks that way. I'm going back to your post yesterday morning about the 74 Corridor... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 looks that way. I'm going back to your post yesterday morning about the 74 Corridor... Sent from my iPhone EPS gives you a 50% chance of going below zero Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 EPS gives CLT 30-40% chance of doing something we haven't done since 1985. Below zero temperature? I don't think it has went below zero here since the "Coldest Day", either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Below zero temperature? Yep. Model gives almost all of us from GSP to Burlington a 70-80% chance of single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 I said it before and I'll say it again. Today we will start to see the real picture. I think you take the Euro temps drop it by 2 degrees and the GFS moisture and we're looking more at what plays out. This cold wedge is strong and I think the GFS is moving it out too fast letting too much WAA spill in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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