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Feb 16th/17th/18th Winter Wx


burgertime

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No official map for the area yet but a poster on talkweather posted a 0z Euro clown map that shows the western upstate at the very edge of the graphic around 7-8. I asked for a map, just gotta wait and be patient. Will update officially when I find out!

It looks like about 3" up front then some mixing. 2m temps are actually getting colder while the 850s are rising so it definitely won't be just rain. It's close with the 850s, I can't tell what would fall without a sounding.

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Sounds like your call earlier pretty much splits the diff between the GFS and Euro

With several s/w's rounding the trough, the quicker the better as far as snow. If we have a situation where this ends up being a monday afternoon/night, it will be predominately snow in NC. If the second impulse is more dominant, i think ice/rain enters the picture. I figure the EURO/UKMET are probably more accurate, as they do very well in this type of pattern.

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Do you have the maps? If so will you post them?

 

Posting WeatherBell paid maps is verboten.

 

By hr 78, your 850s rise to freezing, but precip appears to be pretty much over by then.

 

---

 

Anyways, the 00z NAVGEM is starting to roll out on the model center now.  I'll make sure to post that snow map because it looked like a doozy for some based on the Meteociel maps! :)

 

(Yes, I know the model sucks, but it's fun.)

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Posting WeatherBell paid maps is verboten.

 

By hr 78, your 850s rise to freezing, but precip appears to be pretty much over by then.

Thanks! I guess the strength of the CAD wedge will really be the deciding factor when it comes down to the wire, lets hope it stays and fights the WAA  as long as possible

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This is too much for me to handle

 

GFS (and probably UKMET) gives me 6-10"

GEM gives me 0.1"

EURO sounds like it gives me 1"

 

Aren't we supposed to be less than 4 days out or something?

 

When will we see a convergence? Monday evening with the 00z Tuesday runs?

 

Does the term "11th hour" mean anything to you? I think that will be the theme for a lot of folks.

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With several s/w's rounding the trough, the quicker the better as far as snow. If we have a situation where this ends up being a monday afternoon/night, it will be predominately snow in NC. If the second impulse is more dominant, i think ice/rain enters the picture. I figure the EURO/UKMET are probably more accurate, as they do very well in this type of pattern.

 

One thing of interest is that this is our first true winter storm test for the GFS Para down south

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Does the upstate show any mixing at all? The GFS shows a snow to mix then some backend snow.

 

GFS is quite different from the Euro.  GFS is one large system that is west, wet, and warmer...whereas the Euro has an initial system that isn't as juicy, but is colder...and outside of the immediate coast, it misses on the trailing wave/storm.  Euro looks like all snow or nearly all snow in SC upstate

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Well, one day you'll get some payback for missing that spring ull, lol!  And, me, I always have to wrestle with the z demon so I can end up with sleet :)  T

 

Ugh! We were left high and dry with that ULL! Tony, I think you end up with some sleet out of this thing, imo, which is worth about 2 nickles. This system can do just about anything from the looks of it.

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You guys need to look at the beast the Euro is cooking up at D7. This may just be an appetizer.

I was just about to say...don't look now but major wedge/winter storm day 7. 1040mb high in new england, strong damming signature with low cutting up into northern al/western tn which transfers to the coast. Starts as snow then goes to ice here/extreme ne ga..big snow/ice in north carolina. 1 to 1.5 inch liquid worth there with teens even into the northern part of the state.

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Not sure how to post the image but heres a link to the Euro snowfall map! Funny how 1-85 is perfectlymapped between the yellow and the green.

http://i.imgur.com/9UE3l8V.jpg

I learned a hard lesson last February ! Those "snow" maps on the Euro, count EVERYTHING as snow! Including sleet and freezing rain, and hell, maybe even rain too! They offer false hope!
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You guys need to look at the beast the Euro is cooking up at D7. This may just be an appetizer.

 

I don't think I've ever seen a model run give us a foot of snow from a CLIPPER. :lol:

 

Teens, too.  Looks like we might sleet at the end once it gets amped up right over us, but whatever.

 

EDIT: Looks like 14" for us.  Temps in the upper teens.  Might be more snow than that with high-ratios early on.

 

Okay, time to look away... that's NOT going to happen.

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The 0z GEFS panels looks really good for the W half of NC.  There are no whiffs on this run.  A majority put down at least 1.5" of total QPF down.  Granted a few of these are too warm to be all snow but several are putting down some very large snows totals despite this.  Could the NAVGEM come out on top if this verifies??

 

Best snow map of the lot (and there were several really good ones)

 

eOb4vZq.gif

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The 03z SREF plumes are out now and fairly impressive (At least for WNC area - if anybody wants me to check for them feel free to ask) with the Asheville average over 6 inches. The run ends before snow is complete for many of the plumes though.

 

The 03z SREF plumes are out now and fairly impressive (At least for WNC area - if anybody wants me to check for them feel free to ask) with the Asheville average over 6 inches. The run ends before snow is complete for many of the plumes though.

Would you mind checking for the York/Rock Hill area?

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