griteater Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Wake Franklin up, he should like this initial wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 500mb looks very similar so far except the baja low is farther east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 5h still looking on the suppressed side to me...let's see where it goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 very close to the 12z run except heavier precip. a 0.50 swath across northwest ga into the sw mountains of nc. DOC looks worse with the 2nd wave tho right? am I seeing that right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 No second wave on the 00z Euro. It is a marginally better look at h5, I think, but no cigar. Model madness... GFS too amped... Euro too suppressed. Oy. It's weird to see the Euro be by far the most suppressed of all the modeling, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Hopefully this first shortwave can get in a smidgen quicker and maximize better 850s to help yall out south of me with seeing some snow, before the ice man comes. I know in overrunning situations they always breakout faster than modled. This could really help the GA gang out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 No second wave on the 00z Euro. It is a marginally better look at h5, I think, but no cigar. Model madness... GFS too amped... Euro too suppressed. Oy. Eh on the right track with the Euro... the middle ground would be great. We went thru the same thing last year ~ this time with the "waves". It'll be Sunday before we even have a clue IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Overall I like the euro tonight. Nice overrunning event w/ the 1st wave and was very close to bringing a decent storm w/ the 2nd. A little faster w/ the 2nd wave and it would of been big. The trough axis ended up going negative but just a hair too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Eh on the right track with the Euro... the middle ground would be great I'm inclined to give preference towards the GFS simply because it crushes Boston. Really, though you have the GFS, NAVGEM, and UKMET being fairly amped. The GGEM is somewhere in between while the Euro is the suppressed outlier. The Euro is close, though. Wouldn't take much for it to join the party. It probably will at 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 DOC looks worse with the 2nd wave tho right? am I seeing that right? yep...pretty much all inland precip is gone and confined to the coast. final totals for the first is 0.25 to 0.50 over most of nc piedmont. 0.50 from asheville to charlotte to cape hatteras. 0.75 from between huntsville and birhingham to gainesvlle to roughly columbia and the 1 inch contour (which wasn't there on earlier runs) bhm to just south of atlanta to macon. edit to add the euro does give the nc coast some snow around 102 to 108 hours with what was the 2nd wave. it looks more impressive with the arctic airmass behind this system..further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This is awesome...GFS well west, Euro well east. GSP-CLT-RDU likes this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Is this the Euro struggling with southwest cutoff events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 OMG I am so glad I do not actually have to forecast this one operationally- only 96 hours out and these kind of crazy differences? Madness indeed. I am guessing that because the Op Euro is so different than all the other models and ensembles it has to be nuts. Doesn't it???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Northwest GA gets clobbered on the EURO. Lots of ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Great ratios on euro for triad nc probably between 12 maybe 15 to 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Still a solid snow hit, 3-6 incher for most of nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This is awesome...GFS well west, Euro well east. GSP-CLT-RDU likes this run Looks like 4-5" down there? I have to say that it's nice to be complaining about the 00z Euro "only" giving my area 3-3.5" of snow this run (maybe closer to 4" if ratios are factored in... though that's tricky). The big ticket winner looks like Franklin's area, where totals approach 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLKeene123 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This is awesome...GFS well west, Euro well east. GSP-CLT-RDU likes this run GSP really likes this run!! lol split the difference between models and I think we are Golden! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Still a solid snow hit, 3-6 incher for most of nc. I think if its gonna be all snow, i think 3-6 inches is a good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 GSP really likes this run!! lol split the difference between models and I think we are Golden!What is it actually showing for GSP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Still a solid snow hit, 3-6 incher for most of nc. Sounds like your call earlier pretty much splits the diff between the GFS and Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Great ratios on euro for triad nc probably between 12 maybe 15 to 1 Yeah, looks like 0.3-0.35" QPF with surface temps of 21-22 and 850s of -7C. Not bad. Powdery. CLT is in the mid-20s with a little warmer 850s. Same goes for RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 True model chaos when you factor in the handling of the 2 waves and how amplified the trough will get with the 2nd wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 euro really brings the cold down by hour 132. single digits most areas with subzero temps in tn, ga mountains/western nc. in comparison, the 12z euro had north ga in the upper 20s/near freezing..now single digits with -16 to -18c 850s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLKeene123 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 What is it actually showing for GSP? No official map for the area yet but a poster on talkweather posted a 0z Euro clown map that shows the western upstate at the very edge of the graphic around 7-8. I asked for a map, just gotta wait and be patient. Will update officially when I find out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 No official map for the area yet but a poster on talkweather posted a 0z Euro clown map that shows the western upstate at the very edge of the graphic around 7-8. I asked for a map, just gotta wait and be patient. Will update officially when I find out!Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teconnectivity2013 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 True model chaos when you factor in the handling of the 2 waves and how amplified the trough will get with the 2nd wave No official map for the area yet but a poster on talkweather posted a 0z Euro clown map that shows the western upstate at the very edge of the graphic around 7-8. I asked for a map, just gotta wait and be patient. Will update officially when I find out! What does it look like for the York/Rock Hill area so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 No official map for the area yet but a poster on talkweather posted a 0z Euro clown map that shows the western upstate at the very edge of the graphic around 7-8. I asked for a map, just gotta wait and be patient. Will update officially when I find out! I'd say 6" all-snow with temps in the mid to upper 20s. Just N/W of GSP does a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Areas that have snow cover on the ground this might be approaching 1985 cold. Not too common for second half of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 What does it look like for the York/Rock Hill area so far? I'm in a generous mood so I'll answer and say 3-5" depending on ratio, which I haven't look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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