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Feb 16th/17th/18th Winter Wx


burgertime

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No second wave on the 00z Euro.  It is a marginally better look at h5, I think, but no cigar.

 

Model madness...  GFS too amped... Euro too suppressed.   Oy.

 

Eh on the right track with the Euro... the middle ground would be great. We went thru the same thing last year ~ this time with the "waves". It'll be Sunday before we even have a clue IMO.

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Overall I like the euro tonight.  Nice overrunning event w/ the 1st wave and was very close to bringing a decent storm w/ the 2nd.  A little faster w/ the 2nd wave and it would of been big.  The trough axis ended up going negative but just a hair too late.

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Eh on the right track with the Euro... the middle ground would be great

 

I'm inclined to give preference towards the GFS simply because it crushes Boston.

 

Really, though you have the GFS, NAVGEM, and UKMET being fairly amped.  The GGEM is somewhere in between while the Euro is the suppressed outlier.  The Euro is close, though.  Wouldn't take much for it to join the party.  It probably will at 12z tomorrow.

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DOC looks worse with the 2nd wave tho right?  am I seeing that right?

yep...pretty much all inland precip is gone and confined to the coast.

 

final totals for the first is 0.25 to 0.50 over most of nc piedmont. 0.50 from asheville to charlotte to cape hatteras. 0.75 from between huntsville and birhingham to gainesvlle to roughly columbia and the 1 inch contour (which wasn't there on earlier runs) bhm to just south of atlanta to macon.

 

edit to add the euro does give the nc coast some snow around 102 to 108 hours with what was the 2nd wave. it looks more impressive with the arctic airmass behind this system..further west.

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This is awesome...GFS well west, Euro well east.  GSP-CLT-RDU likes this run

 

Looks like 4-5" down there?

 

I have to say that it's nice to be complaining about the 00z Euro "only" giving my area 3-3.5" of snow this run (maybe closer to 4" if ratios are factored in... though that's tricky). :lol:

 

The big ticket winner looks like Franklin's area, where totals approach 10".

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True model chaos when you factor in the handling of the 2 waves and how amplified the trough will get with the 2nd wave

 

No official map for the area yet but a poster on talkweather posted a 0z Euro clown map that shows the western upstate at the very edge of the graphic around 7-8. I asked for a map, just gotta wait and be patient. Will update officially when I find out!

What does it look like for the York/Rock Hill area so far?

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No official map for the area yet but a poster on talkweather posted a 0z Euro clown map that shows the western upstate at the very edge of the graphic around 7-8. I asked for a map, just gotta wait and be patient. Will update officially when I find out!

 

I'd say 6" all-snow with temps in the mid to upper 20s.  Just N/W of GSP does a little better.

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