Feb 16th/17th/18th Winter Wx

[packbacker]

GEFS definitely ticked west and very amped. 1" QPF for all of NC with 1.5" QPF for central NC. Front end snow to ice to rain for RDU with the track. Would be shocked if the Euro isn't a bit west tonight. NAVGEM is supressed. UK is a complete outlier right now.

[jacobr57]

0z GEFS snowfall map for fun:

 

[superjames1992]

Thanks, Jacob.  Looks to be taking on more of a classic Miller A look configuration now on the GEFS.  Very nice look for us... though not as nice further east.  That map ends at hr 96, so there could be more snow after that, too.

 

EDIT: I have to say that the mean SLP track is a bit terrifying for this area, though.  Oh, well, if we mix, we mix.  I'd rather have a big storm to play with and let the chips fall where they may.  This is our storm to "save winter."  Make it a big one.  Strong surface low for a mean on the GEFS.  Of course, it goes up the east coast and bombs, destroying Boston.  Probably didn't need a model to tell you that, though!

[Wow]

GEFS definitely ticked west and very amped. 1" QPF for all of NC with 1.5" QPF for central NC. Front end snow to ice to rain for RDU with the track. Would be shocked if the Euro isn't a bit west tonight. NAVGEM is supressed. UK is a complete outlier right now.

 

Yes, close to the operational.  NAVGEM wasn't supressed, just a bit SE w/ the low and colder.

[griteater]

Thanks, Jacob.  Looks to be taking on more of a classic Miller A look configuration now on the GEFS.  Very nice look for us... though not as nice further east.

 

EDIT: I have to say that the mean SLP track is a bit terrifying for this area, though.  Oh, well, if we mix, we mix.  I'd rather have a big storm to play with and let the chips fall where they may.  This is our storm to "save winter."  Make it a big one.

 

Yeah James, the GEFS Ens Mean matched the Op ideas in being more amped and more inland with the sfc track from their previous runs.  I don't think the Euro is going to have a big jump NW, but we'll see    

[Buddy1987]

Yeah James, the GEFS Ens Mean matched the Op ideas in being more amped and more inland with the sfc track from their previous runs. I don't think the Euro is going to have a big jump NW, but we'll see

Hey man we'll see some of my buddies in the New England forum have been telling me the Euro has really been dropping the ball this year with impending storms so who knows.

[griteater]

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

1141 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2015

...SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE INTERIOR WEST ON MON...

...DOWNSTREAM SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST ON

TUES...

PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS

CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE TOP

OF A STRENGTHENING RIDGE JUST OFF THE WEST COAST...WITH THE ENERGY

THEN DIGGING DOWN THROUGH SOUTHWEST CANADA AND INTO THE WESTERN

U.S. MON AND TUES. THE 12Z UKMET AND 00Z NAM ARE A BIT STRONGER

THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...WITH THE UKMET TENDING TO BE

FASTER AS WELL. THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GEM CLUSTER

REASONABLY WELL WITH A SOMEWHAT FLATTER SOLUTION.

THIS ENERGY PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE GULF

COAST STATES ON TUES WITH HOW LOW PRESSURE EVOLVES. THE ARRIVAL OF

ADDITIONAL ENERGY HELPS TO BACK THE MID LEVEL FLOW ENOUGH FOR

SOMEWHAT STRONGER WAVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN GULF

COAST REGION WHICH BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS ARE HINTING AT. A

COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE REMNANTS OF THE CLOSED LOW ALSO NEAR

THE BAJA PENINSULA SHEARING DOWNSTREAM WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A

STRONGER DOWNSTREAM SURFACE REFLECTION. THE NON-NCEP MODELS THOUGH

FOCUS MORE LOW PRESSURE FARTHER EAST AND DOWNSTREAM GIVEN THE

NATURE OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE THAT SHEARS ACROSS THE REGION ON MON.

THE UKMET AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND FARTHER

NORTH WITH ITS LOW DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TUES. CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED

BUT WILL LEAN TOWARD THE 00Z GFS FOR THE TIME BEING ACCOUNTING FOR

THE LATEST SPREAD AND TRENDS.

[Lookout]

crazy uncle (CMC) is a bit further south this run...Tells the GFS And UKIE they are on CRACK for a ramped up storm.  BIG hit I would imagine for the "areas" on the GEM

i took a closer look at some soundings on the gfs/nam and I can safely say the nam spells big trouble for ice over north ga/sc. Mind you I realize this is the long range nam but Soundings indicate subfreezing temps through 875mb through 72 hours and 925mb through 84  hours with easterly flow through up to 925mb as time progresses. folks this is the classic sounding of major ice here because one of the key elements in getting ice/getting subfreezing temps  here is depth of the cold layer near the surface. If its' subfreezing to 950mb there  normally is a decent chance of ice depending on surface wetbulbs, precip, etc. Well as you can see it's quite deep and cold on the nam.

 

 

the gfs on the other hand, despite having a cold enough boundary layer has NO easterly flow and in fact has a light southerly flow at the surface. (only a knot or two ) but enough that it's probably throwing it off. As i've said though i think it's wrong.  If the UK is right however, we are clearly looking at less chances of frozen/freezing precip and all this will be for nothing lol

 

It's good to see the canadian keep temps here subfreezing through 12z tue.

 

Here is my sounding for 72 and 84 hours from the nam. ..which is pretty much mirrored everywhere in north ga/upstate (even colder in upstate).

PRES	HGHT	TEMP	DWPT	RELH	MIXR	DRCT	SKNT	TWTB	TVRT	THTA	THTE	THTV
998.1	187	-0.3	-1.4	92	3.5	97	4	-0.7	0.3	273.0	282.5	273.6
975.0	374	-2.1	-2.4	98	3.3	100	8	-2.2	-1.6	273.0	282.1	273.5
950.0	579	-3.9	-4.0	99	3.0	107	11	-3.9	-3.4	273.2	281.6	273.7
925.0	790	-2.1	-2.4	98	3.5	168	5	-2.2	-1.5	277.2	287.0	277.7
900.0	1009	-1.3	-1.7	97	3.8	218	11	-1.5	-0.7	280.1	290.8	280.8
875.0	1232	-1.8	-2.1	98	3.8	223	15	-1.9	-1.2	281.9	292.6	282.5
850.0	1465	2.5	2.3	99	5.3	251	28	2.4	3.3	288.7	304.1	289.6
825.0	1707	2.6	2.4	99	5.6	260	31	2.5	3.5	291.3	307.5	292.3
800.0	1956	2.2	1.9	98	5.5	260	35	2.1	3.1	293.5	309.8	294.5
775.0	2212	1.1	0.8	98	5.2	262	40	0.9	1.9	294.9	310.5	295.8
750.0	2476	0.3	0.0	98	5.1	263	39	0.2	1.2	296.9	312.3	297.8 

PRES	HGHT	TEMP	DWPT	RELH	MIXR	DRCT	SKNT	TWTB	TVRT	THTA	THTE	THTV
992.3	187	0.0	-0.8	94	3.6	68	5	-0.3	0.7	273.8	283.9	274.4
975.0	327	-1.1	-1.4	98	3.6	72	10	-1.2	-0.5	274.0	283.8	274.6
950.0	534	-2.6	-2.8	98	3.3	81	17	-2.7	-2.0	274.6	283.7	275.1
925.0	745	-3.1	-3.3	99	3.3	106	19	-3.2	-2.6	276.1	285.2	276.6
900.0	963	0.9	0.7	99	4.5	170	20	0.8	1.6	282.4	295.2	283.2
875.0	1193	7.2	7.1	99	7.3	218	36	7.2	8.5	291.3	312.2	292.5

[SN_Lover]

If SFC temps are below freezing when the warm nose comes in, it will be ice. I have a feeling this will be a crippling ice storm for KCLT. 

 

[BLKeene123]

 Euro Time!! 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

Too many of you NC guys on here Let us SC and GA people have one for a change! GFS was awful for us. I was afraid that NW trend would take over soon and viola

[superjames1992]

Yes, close to the operational.  NAVGEM wasn't supressed, just a bit SE w/ the low and colder.

 

The NAVGEM is pretty awesome for our areas.  Looking at the French maps, it was probably 6-12" all-snow for us in the Western Piedmont.  Basically a textbook Miller A.  Too bad we can't lock that one up right now!

 

Anyways, time to see what the Doc's prognosis is tonight.  Recall that it was suppressed at 00z, so I hope it makes a substantial shift to the NW and tracks the LP up the coast some.

[NCSNOW]

I got a feeling the doc is gonna amp one up here in a few minutes. Once it let's go of the Baha energy, which its notorious for hanging onto to long, it should give us a good idea of where this thing is heading save 50 miles adjustment eitheir way. Mystery should begin to get resolved.

[griteater]

Anyways, time to see what the Doc's prognosis is tonight.  Recall that it was suppressed at 00z, so I hope it makes a substantial shift to the NW and tracks the LP up the coast some.

 

james, I think you've got suppressionophobia

[deltadog03]

 

i took a closer look at some soundings on the gfs/nam and I can safely say the nam spells big trouble for ice over north ga/sc. Mind you I realize this is the long range nam but Soundings indicate subfreezing temps through 875mb through 72 hours and 925mb through 84  hours with easterly flow through up to 925mb as time progresses. folks this is the classic sounding of major ice here because one of the key elements in getting ice/getting subfreezing temps  here is depth of the cold layer near the surface. If its' subfreezing to 950mb there  normally is a decent chance of ice depending on surface wetbulbs, precip, etc. Well as you can see it's quite deep and cold on the nam.

 

 

the gfs on the other hand, despite having a cold enough boundary layer has NO easterly flow and in fact has a light southerly flow at the surface. (only a knot or two ) but enough that it's probably throwing it off. As i've said though i think it's wrong.  If the UK is right however, we are clearly looking at less chances of frozen/freezing precip and all this will be for nothing lol

 

It's good to see the canadian keep temps here subfreezing through 12z tue.

 

Here is my sounding for 72 and 84 hours from the nam. ..which is pretty much mirrored everywhere in north ga/upstate (even colder in upstate).

PRES	HGHT	TEMP	DWPT	RELH	MIXR	DRCT	SKNT	TWTB	TVRT	THTA	THTE	THTV
998.1	187	-0.3	-1.4	92	3.5	97	4	-0.7	0.3	273.0	282.5	273.6
975.0	374	-2.1	-2.4	98	3.3	100	8	-2.2	-1.6	273.0	282.1	273.5
950.0	579	-3.9	-4.0	99	3.0	107	11	-3.9	-3.4	273.2	281.6	273.7
925.0	790	-2.1	-2.4	98	3.5	168	5	-2.2	-1.5	277.2	287.0	277.7
900.0	1009	-1.3	-1.7	97	3.8	218	11	-1.5	-0.7	280.1	290.8	280.8
875.0	1232	-1.8	-2.1	98	3.8	223	15	-1.9	-1.2	281.9	292.6	282.5
850.0	1465	2.5	2.3	99	5.3	251	28	2.4	3.3	288.7	304.1	289.6
825.0	1707	2.6	2.4	99	5.6	260	31	2.5	3.5	291.3	307.5	292.3
800.0	1956	2.2	1.9	98	5.5	260	35	2.1	3.1	293.5	309.8	294.5
775.0	2212	1.1	0.8	98	5.2	262	40	0.9	1.9	294.9	310.5	295.8
750.0	2476	0.3	0.0	98	5.1	263	39	0.2	1.2	296.9	312.3	297.8 

PRES	HGHT	TEMP	DWPT	RELH	MIXR	DRCT	SKNT	TWTB	TVRT	THTA	THTE	THTV
992.3	187	0.0	-0.8	94	3.6	68	5	-0.3	0.7	273.8	283.9	274.4
975.0	327	-1.1	-1.4	98	3.6	72	10	-1.2	-0.5	274.0	283.8	274.6
950.0	534	-2.6	-2.8	98	3.3	81	17	-2.7	-2.0	274.6	283.7	275.1
925.0	745	-3.1	-3.3	99	3.3	106	19	-3.2	-2.6	276.1	285.2	276.6
900.0	963	0.9	0.7	99	4.5	170	20	0.8	1.6	282.4	295.2	283.2
875.0	1193	7.2	7.1	99	7.3	218	36	7.2	8.5	291.3	312.2	292.5

ya, after seeing the CMC, the GFS looks wrong imho

[deltadog03]

Will the real DOC please stand up, please stand up.....Take us to the promise land, or will you backstab us and be DR NO?  

[superjames1992]

james, I think you've got suppressionophobia

 

LOL!  Perhaps!

 

I just want a big storm to mess around with.  A 1-3" event won't do it for me (sort of kidding, though maybe not?).  I'm willing to mix if necessary.

 

The Doc should amp up tonight, though.  No other model is nearly as suppressed as it is now.  Looks like the Baja low is a little east so far.

[deltadog03]

baja low a bit further E so far vs 00z run at hr 48

[griteater]

Early on, east Pac ridge is a smidge less amped and baja low is a smidge east

[southernskimmer]

james, I think you've got suppressionophobia

I am suffering from this disorder as well

[deltadog03]

LOL!  Perhaps!

 

I just want a big storm to mess around with.  A 1-3" event won't do it for me (sort of kidding, though maybe not?).  I'm willing to mix if necessary.

 

The Doc should amp up tonight, though.  No other model is nearly as suppressed as it is now.

the GEM is suppressed.

[superjames1992]

the GEM is suppressed.

 

It is to an extent, but it still gives RDU a really nice snowstorm.  The Euro at 12z barely gave RDU anything.  The only real snow in these parts was an inch or so from the initial overrunning as it pretty much crushed the second wave.

 

Anyways, out to hr 48, heights look higher in general so far and the Baja low is a touch east on the 00z Euro.

[rduwx]

LOL!  Perhaps!

 

I just want a big storm to mess around with.  A 1-3" event won't do it for me (sort of kidding, though maybe not?).  I'm willing to mix if necessary.

 

The Doc should amp up tonight, though.  No other model is nearly as suppressed as it is now.  Looks like the Baja low is a little east so far.

 

I agree especially if you have .70 inches of rain afterwards.

[deltadog03]

baja low is dying quickly at hr 60

[deltadog03]

It is to an extent, but it still gives RDU a really nice snowstorm.  The Euro at 12z barely gave RDU anything.  The only real snow in these parts was an inch or so from the initial overrunning as it pretty much crushed the second wave.

 

Anyways, out to hr 48, heights look higher in general so far and the Baja low is a touch east on the 00z Euro.

great point.

[mackerel_sky]

baja low is dying quickly at hr 60

That's what we want, less amped system, due to weaker energy?

[deltadog03]

Looks ICY for northern MS, AL and GA into the Upstate.  Snowy for TN and NC.  Looks about the same as the 12z run to be honest.  Looks a smidge colder at 2m by hr 78

[superjames1992]

The Monday overrunning is a nice light/moderate hit for NC/TN.  Little further north with everything, so it's a little better for N NC.  You're looking at 2" of snow on the ground by Monday evening for GSO-CLT westward (and the same for RDU by the wee hours of Tuesday morning).

 

SW NC gets crushed.

[Lookout]

very close to the 12z run except heavier precip. a 0.50 swath across northwest ga into the sw mountains of nc.

[deltadog03]

The overrunning is a nice hit for NC, etc.

yup