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Feb 16th/17th/18th Winter Wx


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Count on it. I can't see a reason the storm doesn't tick north as we get closer. It's not random bad luck that this usually happens. I don't know if it's just that all the models are cold biased or suppression biased at these leads or what, but there is some reason for the usual north trend.

They won't have a solution until they pick up on how the Boston blizzard bombs out! The bigger the bomb in NE, the more suppressed out storm could theoretically could be!? Sat night special southern tick on the models, incoming tomorrow
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The GGEM looks about the same through hr 66.  Maybe a little further north and/or slower than its 12z run (which was really suppressed).

 

I think it's going to have a more consolidated, stronger storm as has been the trend tonight.

 

+SN into NE GA by hr 72 with moderate snow in upstate SC and light snow overspreading NC.  1010 mb LP centered in S LA.

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This 7 to 10 day stretch is gonna rival Jan 2000. Not gonna have crusher size storm, but wicked cold and several wintry precip events. Mores coming folks, JB is right.

This storm will phase imo. Hopefully we can get it to do so off the GA coast instead of inland through the coastal plain. But I'm fine with 7 to 8 inches and some sleet for a ouple hours on top. Improves the sledding. But the nam and gfs use the same mechanics/ formulas to spit out an end result. So yes pay attn to them, but the ukie and euro ens means should carry the most weight. Just 3 days left for this one to get started. I'm rooting for everyone, we all are more than justified in wanting to be rewarded.

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Just looking at the setup, i see this solution as probably being as far west as it can get. It's just not supportive of anything west of the coastline. The trough is never threatening to go negative and with the amount of cold/dry air available at the sfc, this should setup a strong boundary over the coastline from which the SLP should follow. My guess is a miller a just offshore with the usual cutoff lines. I think the mountains/foothills look good for mostly snow with some sleet involved from hickory to Wilkes. I think GSO looks like snow to sleet/zr to snow. Raleigh snow to sleet/zr/rn then back to snow to end. 

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Just looking at the setup, i see this solution as probably being as far west as it can get. It's just not supportive of anything west of the coastline. The trough is never threatening to go negative and with the amount of cold/dry air available at the sfc, this should setup a strong boundary over the coastline from which the SLP should follow. My guess is a miller a just offshore with the usual cutoff lines. I think the mountains/foothills look good for mostly snow with some sleet involved from hickory to Wilkes. I think GSO looks like snow to sleet/zr to snow. Raleigh snow to sleet/zr/rn then back to snow to end. 

 

 

Music to my ears....makes sense that it will do the path of least resistance thing.  About a 50 mile tick to the east of the GFS track is juuuust about perfect for us Central NC weenies.

 

I'm quite cool with a 2-3 hour pinger window in the middle of a 18 hour event.  Just makes the sledding better :)

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Just going off memory, it has been rock solid showing the same general track for a couple of days.

 

Yep.  It's been tracking through N AL then down through N SC for awhile.  I think last night's 00z run might have been a little north of tonight's, though.  It has consistently drilled NC/TN with either snow or ice (more snow for NC, especially north) with copious precip to work with.

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