mackerel_sky Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Count on it. I can't see a reason the storm doesn't tick north as we get closer. It's not random bad luck that this usually happens. I don't know if it's just that all the models are cold biased or suppression biased at these leads or what, but there is some reason for the usual north trend.They won't have a solution until they pick up on how the Boston blizzard bombs out! The bigger the bomb in NE, the more suppressed out storm could theoretically could be!? Sat night special southern tick on the models, incoming tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Navgem is dropping 1.06 inches of precip that's all snow in my backyard... no biggie.. Needless to say, the navgem held course with the similar track to the GFS but much colder solution. Could you post a pic of that or a link one? Sounds like the Navgem as been pretty consistent the last several runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 GFS snow map from WxBell looks like the total went up some from last run for me, close to 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Also note that JB has thrown out there the possibility of a triple phaser.....we all know what that means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Btw, we are in our D3 (or close) window where we see the FINAL trend....Its a D5 Trend (that was south) now the D3 (might be back further NW with a stronger storm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The GGEM looks about the same through hr 66. Maybe a little further north and/or slower than its 12z run (which was really suppressed). I think it's going to have a more consolidated, stronger storm as has been the trend tonight. +SN into NE GA by hr 72 with moderate snow in upstate SC and light snow overspreading NC. 1010 mb LP centered in S LA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 GGEM looks juicy through 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Could you post a pic of that or a link one? Sounds like the Navgem as been pretty consistent the last several runs https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=nvg_conus&dtg=2015021400∏=850τ=078&set=All Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 GGEM is so close for ATL... Just a few more degrees lower, and we'll be all good to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 GGEM looks juicy through 72 Big shift from its 12z run. Still a little suppressed for us, but good run for RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 UKMet is keeping the idea of ramping the system up early and throwing precip into the cold air in more west to east fashion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Big shift from its 12z run. Still a little suppressed for us, but great run for RDU. Yeah I'm really liking the trends for our area tonight. It's gonna be a long wait for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This 7 to 10 day stretch is gonna rival Jan 2000. Not gonna have crusher size storm, but wicked cold and several wintry precip events. Mores coming folks, JB is right. This storm will phase imo. Hopefully we can get it to do so off the GA coast instead of inland through the coastal plain. But I'm fine with 7 to 8 inches and some sleet for a ouple hours on top. Improves the sledding. But the nam and gfs use the same mechanics/ formulas to spit out an end result. So yes pay attn to them, but the ukie and euro ens means should carry the most weight. Just 3 days left for this one to get started. I'm rooting for everyone, we all are more than justified in wanting to be rewarded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Also note that JB has thrown out there the possibility of a triple phaser.....we all know what that means March 1993. A storm that shall live in infamy. We can only dream, Nelson... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 crazy uncle (CMC) is a bit further south this run...Tells the GFS And UKIE they are on CRACK for a ramped up storm. BIG hit I would imagine for the "areas" on the GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 00z GGEM SNOW ONLY: Credit: AmericanWx Model Center. Compare to 12z run to see the improvement: http://i57.tinypic.com/29auwzn.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Just looking at the setup, i see this solution as probably being as far west as it can get. It's just not supportive of anything west of the coastline. The trough is never threatening to go negative and with the amount of cold/dry air available at the sfc, this should setup a strong boundary over the coastline from which the SLP should follow. My guess is a miller a just offshore with the usual cutoff lines. I think the mountains/foothills look good for mostly snow with some sleet involved from hickory to Wilkes. I think GSO looks like snow to sleet/zr to snow. Raleigh snow to sleet/zr/rn then back to snow to end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 00z at hour 96 saying heavy precipitation on the backside of the Low at 34F for KCAE. No way is that not heavy wet snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 UKMet is keeping the idea of ramping the system up early and throwing precip into the cold air in more west to east fashion Looks too far north. How does it compare to the last run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 So, the RDU area will be pulling for the CMC to come to fruition, while the WNC area will be pulling for the GFS to be correct. To your corners, gentlemen! May the best man win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Big shift from its 12z run. Still a little suppressed for us, but good run for RDU. GGEM snow map thru 96 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 00z GGEM SNOW ONLY: The differences between that and the GFS for the northern foothills is beyond laughable...half inch vs 10+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 So, the RDU area will be pulling for the CMC to come to fruition, while the WNC area will be pulling for the GFS to be correct. To your corners, gentlemen! May the best man win. They are going to wobble back and forth now and it will end up somewhere in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Looks too far north. How does it compare to the last run? Last 3 runs have been about the same. Yes, it is well north, but it keeps shooting the precip into the cold....but yeah, more of a snow to ice, maybe even to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Looks too far north. How does it compare to the last run? Just going off memory, it has been rock solid showing the same general track for a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Just looking at the setup, i see this solution as probably being as far west as it can get. It's just not supportive of anything west of the coastline. The trough is never threatening to go negative and with the amount of cold/dry air available at the sfc, this should setup a strong boundary over the coastline from which the SLP should follow. My guess is a miller a just offshore with the usual cutoff lines. I think the mountains/foothills look good for mostly snow with some sleet involved from hickory to Wilkes. I think GSO looks like snow to sleet/zr to snow. Raleigh snow to sleet/zr/rn then back to snow to end. Music to my ears....makes sense that it will do the path of least resistance thing. About a 50 mile tick to the east of the GFS track is juuuust about perfect for us Central NC weenies. I'm quite cool with a 2-3 hour pinger window in the middle of a 18 hour event. Just makes the sledding better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Cmc is still on the first wave over running idea. So is the ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I probably sound like an idiot saying this, but how close is this storm looking from this current range to the January 8-13 storm in 2011? The February 12th storm in 2014 for ATL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Last 3 runs have been about the same. Yes, it is well north, but it keeps shooting the precip into the cold....but yeah, more of a snow to ice, maybe even to rain Thanks Grit and Nut. Time to see if the Euro comes north now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Just going off memory, it has been rock solid showing the same general track for a couple of days. Yep. It's been tracking through N AL then down through N SC for awhile. I think last night's 00z run might have been a little north of tonight's, though. It has consistently drilled NC/TN with either snow or ice (more snow for NC, especially north) with copious precip to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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