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Feb 16th/17th/18th Winter Wx


burgertime

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This is why I remained skeptical honestly. I'm willing to bet this will probably be the final solution when its all said and done. I don't think the set up is really all that great for the Atlanta area unless the low is traversing across Southern Georgia. If I were in TN, I would be really excited.

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A foot of the fluffy white stuff would be awesome in Hickory.  The 00Z GFS looks fabulous for MBY, but I'm not sure I like being in the sweet spot when we're still 3 days out.  (Does anyone?)  It sure is hard not to get too excited over that run, though.  Wow!  A classic WNC snowstorm.  But it's time to put the skids on that NW trend.  I can't take too many more of those.

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This is why I remained skeptical honestly. I'm willing to bet this will probably be the final solution when its all said and done. I don't think the set up is really all that great for the Atlanta area unless the low is traversing across Southern Georgia. If I were in TN, I would be really excited.

Willing to bet NW NC and VA will do better than TN. They always do.

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A foot of the fluffy white stuff would be awesome in Hickory.  The 00Z GFS looks fabulous for MBY, but I'm not sure I like being in the sweet spot when we're still 3 days out.  (Does anyone?)  It sure is hard not to get too excited over that run, though.  Wow!  A classic WNC snowstorm.  But it's time to put the skids on that NW trend.  I can't take too many more of those.

Yep me too

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Thursday night is even colder. That's crazy cold.

 

Most of NC doesn't get out of the teens on 2/19.  Then it gets just as cold as the prev night, if not colder.  Even if we end up with just a couple of inches, better a little snow sticking around for a while than a big snow that halfway melts out by the end of the day.

 

2/19 temps at 4 pm:

 

CxLMw27.gif

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Most of NC doesn't get out of the teens on 2/19.  Then it gets just as cold as the prev night, if not colder.  Even if we end up with just a couple of inches, I'd like to experience this!

How much of that cold is based off of snowcover?

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Let's see if euro caves to gfs

Count on it. I can't see a reason the storm doesn't tick north as we get closer. It's not random bad luck that this usually happens. I don't know if it's just that all the models are cold biased or suppression biased at these leads or what, but there is some reason for the usual north trend.

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Count on it. I can't see a reason the storm doesn't tick north as we get closer. It's not random bad luck that this usually happens. I don't know if it's just that all the models are cold biased or suppression biased at these leads or what, but there is some reason for the usual north trend.

5h to me looks significant in that it will show something with more moisture on the northwest side. That was a real good run 5h wise. Wherever it ends up setting up someone is gonna get whalloped.
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For central NC folks, this looks incredibly similar to last year's storm.  Heavy snow, over to pingers, mayyybe a touch of zr, then back to snow to finish it off.

 

 

 

Fired up.  Should be fun.

 

I was thinking the same thing.  The setup isn't necessarily similar and amounts probably won't be as prolific, but the spattering of P-types, etc. might be.

 

Can only see hr96 of UKMet on the french site, but it is faster than the GFS, and sfc low is a little east of where the GFS ends up...doesn't look surpressed though....maybe the faster speed helps with running the precip into the cold...can't really tell without more maps

 

It has consistently been the fastest with it all along, so it sounds like it may have held its ground to some degree.  The Meteocentre maps should be out soon.

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I would love to see everyone on the board get some action...with that said, WNC is overdue for a big one. If it's not a big one I'd rather see everyone else get something because we have had several dustings this season

I know...I am just teasin ya.... :)  I want everyone to get snow/ice as well.

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5h to me looks significant in that it will show something with more moisture on the northwest side. That was a real good run 5h wise. Wherever it ends up setting up someone is gonna get whalloped.

 

I also thought I should add in that the ratios in the more northern areas will be a bit higher than our standard 10:1 we are seeing on the snow maps.

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I was thinking the same thing.  The setup isn't necessarily similar and amounts probably won't be as prolific, but the spattering of P-types, etc. might be.

 

 

 

if that Baja ejects as shown, I think it's going to have plenty of juice qpf wise.  This thing has the potential to be a monster if it phases smoothly...

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