Cold Rain Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 In Euro Op we trust Until about 1:15 anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Northern NC counties go below zero Wednesday night on the 00z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This is why I remained skeptical honestly. I'm willing to bet this will probably be the final solution when its all said and done. I don't think the set up is really all that great for the Atlanta area unless the low is traversing across Southern Georgia. If I were in TN, I would be really excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 So the 0z gfs more NW than the 18z right? Might not be over. If euro trends we are horse meat in the Triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjunkie Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 And folks were laughing at JB for pimping the 18z. Yeah, they probably were. NW trends are so common though, so its not a stretch to predict it i guess. Lots of runs to go before this one is settled though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 And folks were laughing at JB for pimping the 18z. Jb says more coming after this one We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 A foot of the fluffy white stuff would be awesome in Hickory. The 00Z GFS looks fabulous for MBY, but I'm not sure I like being in the sweet spot when we're still 3 days out. (Does anyone?) It sure is hard not to get too excited over that run, though. Wow! A classic WNC snowstorm. But it's time to put the skids on that NW trend. I can't take too many more of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjunkie Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This is why I remained skeptical honestly. I'm willing to bet this will probably be the final solution when its all said and done. I don't think the set up is really all that great for the Atlanta area unless the low is traversing across Southern Georgia. If I were in TN, I would be really excited. Willing to bet NW NC and VA will do better than TN. They always do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Northern NC counties go below zero Wednesday night on the 00z gfs. -10's over NW NC. I'm looking at the goose egg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This is the GFS that changes every six hours drastically correct? Just to be clear all I've had is just a few flurries all winter so far. That's bad to live in such a snowy place!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yet again, ATL still isn't quite cold enough. This is still 2+ days out, so no need to fret. Goofy just brought the heat in the 18z, then brought up the storm track in the 0z so the 18 made more sense, lol. Just have to wait a few hours for another solution, and on, and on...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 -10's over NW NC Thursday night is even colder. That's crazy cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 A foot of the fluffy white stuff would be awesome in Hickory. The 00Z GFS looks fabulous for MBY, but I'm not sure I like being in the sweet spot when we're still 3 days out. (Does anyone?) It sure is hard not to get too excited over that run, though. Wow! A classic WNC snowstorm. But it's time to put the skids on that NW trend. I can't take too many more of those. Yep me too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 00z storm track looks about the same as the 18z to me, right up I-95... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 Lol I'm in Asheville with no Internet having to use my phones crappy 2g connection. Seeing the doom and gloom is funny. Don't take sfc temps seriously until about Sunday night. Overall setup looks like classic mixed bag setup for the Carolinas ending as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Thursday night is even colder. That's crazy cold. Most of NC doesn't get out of the teens on 2/19. Then it gets just as cold as the prev night, if not colder. Even if we end up with just a couple of inches, better a little snow sticking around for a while than a big snow that halfway melts out by the end of the day. 2/19 temps at 4 pm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Let's see if euro caves to gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Most of NC doesn't get out of the teens on 2/19. Then it gets just as cold as the prev night, if not colder. Even if we end up with just a couple of inches, I'd like to experience this! How much of that cold is based off of snowcover? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Anybody have a way to access the 72hr frame of the Ukmet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 For central NC folks, this looks incredibly similar to last year's storm. Heavy snow, over to pingers, mayyybe a touch of zr, then back to snow to finish it off. Fired up. Should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Can only see hr96 of UKMet on the french site, but it is faster than the GFS, and sfc low is a little east of where the GFS ends up...doesn't look surpressed though....maybe the faster speed helps with running the precip into the cold...can't really tell without more maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Let's see if euro caves to gfs Count on it. I can't see a reason the storm doesn't tick north as we get closer. It's not random bad luck that this usually happens. I don't know if it's just that all the models are cold biased or suppression biased at these leads or what, but there is some reason for the usual north trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 People freaking out about the north trend now. Earlier it was the south trend. It will probably end up somewhere in the middle and everything will be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Count on it. I can't see a reason the storm doesn't tick north as we get closer. It's not random bad luck that this usually happens. I don't know if it's just that all the models are cold biased or suppression biased at these leads or what, but there is some reason for the usual north trend.5h to me looks significant in that it will show something with more moisture on the northwest side. That was a real good run 5h wise. Wherever it ends up setting up someone is gonna get whalloped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 How much of that cold is based off of snowcover? a few degrees lower I'd guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 For central NC folks, this looks incredibly similar to last year's storm. Heavy snow, over to pingers, mayyybe a touch of zr, then back to snow to finish it off. Fired up. Should be fun. I was thinking the same thing. The setup isn't necessarily similar and amounts probably won't be as prolific, but the spattering of P-types, etc. might be. Can only see hr96 of UKMet on the french site, but it is faster than the GFS, and sfc low is a little east of where the GFS ends up...doesn't look surpressed though....maybe the faster speed helps with running the precip into the cold...can't really tell without more maps It has consistently been the fastest with it all along, so it sounds like it may have held its ground to some degree. The Meteocentre maps should be out soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Navgem is dropping 1.06 inches of precip that's all snow in my backyard... no biggie.. Needless to say, the navgem held course with the similar track to the GFS but much colder solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I would love to see everyone on the board get some action...with that said, WNC is overdue for a big one. If it's not a big one I'd rather see everyone else get something because we have had several dustings this season I know...I am just teasin ya.... I want everyone to get snow/ice as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 5h to me looks significant in that it will show something with more moisture on the northwest side. That was a real good run 5h wise. Wherever it ends up setting up someone is gonna get whalloped. I also thought I should add in that the ratios in the more northern areas will be a bit higher than our standard 10:1 we are seeing on the snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I was thinking the same thing. The setup isn't necessarily similar and amounts probably won't be as prolific, but the spattering of P-types, etc. might be. if that Baja ejects as shown, I think it's going to have plenty of juice qpf wise. This thing has the potential to be a monster if it phases smoothly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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