deltadog03 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The NAM tends to be overdone at 72-84 so I'd expect the GFS will come in slightly flatter. I would agree with that as well. NAM looks "juiced up" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On the 6PM news, Fishel showed ensemble forecasts and had 2 temperature lines on the map (I assume they were surface and 850mb) and his main point was that we could be dealing with more freezing rain or rain than snow during the system... Unless things change... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The key to the overall track, and therefore temperatures, will be the ultimate phase of the system. Temperatures are dependent on the track, especially aloft. Surface temperatures are an issue south of I-85 (kind of sounds like a normal system for the southeast honestly). When I saw the 18z GFS and the 0z NAM, I thought this looked like a normal classic winter system in the southeast. I had the same impression too. I feel like I've seen this story many times, which is a good thing for folks in I-40 areas west of Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On the 6PM news, Fishel showed ensemble forecasts and had 2 temperature lines on the map (I assume they were surface and 850mb) and his main point was that we could be dealing with more freezing rain or rain than snow during the system... Unless things change... I have not seen anyone say that here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Will this be a 1973 Atlanta disaster ice storm?? I posted this in the Ice Storm thread as well. It was not fun at all. http://www.cnn.com/2014/02/13/us/atlanta-1973-ice-storm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On the 6PM news, Fishel showed ensemble forecasts and had 2 temperature lines on the map (I assume they were surface and 850mb) and his main point was that we could be dealing with more freezing rain or rain than snow during the system... Unless things change... Fishel never show his hand until like 24 hours to go, though. He would be a great poker player in Vegas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I have not seen anyone say that here. For a time, the 850 line went north of Raleigh which would cause melting aloft and refreezing near the surface... But he did point out that it was an average of many members and things could go either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The key to the overall track, and therefore temperatures, will be the ultimate phase of the system. Temperatures are dependent on the track, especially aloft. Surface temperatures are an issue south of I-85 (kind of sounds like a normal system for the southeast honestly). When I saw the 18z GFS and the 0z NAM, I thought this looked like a normal classic winter system in the southeast. Honestly, this seems like the type of system that will screw some people who expect to get this or that, in a really twisted way....I honestly like the rain/snow systems better than these 4 precip. type systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Honestly, this seems like the type of system that will screw some people who expect to get this or that, in a really twisted way....I honestly like the rain/snow systems better than these 4 precip. type systems. I agree 100%. It makes the system very difficult to forecast because the lines are usually so tightly together. Usually 100 miles can be the difference from all snow to a cold rain. It sounds like a lot, but we are discussing a system that is so large. This will be the case this time. The GFS is running and we will see what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 48 hr looks fairly similar to 54 hr 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 For a time, the 850 line went north of Raleigh which would cause melting aloft and refreezing near the surface... But he did point out that it was an average of many members and things could go either way. I just got the impression from everything here and what folks have said about the models that Raleigh is good for at leas a few inches of snow and maybe some ice based on what the models are showing right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I just got the impression from everything here and what folks have said about the models that Raleigh is good for at leas a few inches of snow and maybe some ice based on what the models are showing right now. Yeah... We will see. From experience, the temps always end up being an issue... even last year a couple systems started as snow but then a warm nose crept in and changed things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 0z NAM would still have dew points in the low to mid 20s at hour 84 for Raleigh. So even if we switch it looks to be icy. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=02&model_dd=14&model_init_hh=00&fhour=84¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 similar to 18z thru 63. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 GFS is looking colder at 2m so far by 15z Monday....northern MS, AL and GA seeing wintry. 850's are a smidge warmer tho. Looks ICY outside of TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 similar to 18z thru 63. Northwest trend is in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 GFS going to be a more consolidated storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 GFS phased Baja energy again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 snow further north into nc thru 72 compared to 18z. snow expanding into nc thru 75, much better than 18z so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This is gonna be good again looking at h5 at 75 energy digging baja low ejecting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 GFS trending towards NAM... but appears to be a little cooler compared to NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 GFS going to be a more consolidated storm I agree...It sent the baja low out. Should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 00z is gonna be good for NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 @81 snowing in all of nc except border counties. ice in sc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 00z is gonna be good for NC HP holding in a bit longer compared to 18z ... going to have some good totals for W NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 @81 snowing in all of nc except border counties. ice in sc.ice in what part? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 By 90 hrs, it's only snowing in NW NC. Sleet/Fzg Rain just east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 raleigh mixing by hr 87. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 2m temps and 850's rise again on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 When I see Buddy getting excited, I start getting nervous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.