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Feb 16th/17th/18th Winter Wx


burgertime

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The key to the overall track, and therefore temperatures, will be the ultimate phase of the system. Temperatures are dependent on the track, especially aloft. Surface temperatures are an issue south of I-85 (kind of sounds like a normal system for the southeast honestly). When I saw the 18z GFS and the 0z NAM, I thought this looked like a normal classic winter system in the southeast.

 

I had the same impression too. I feel like I've seen this story many times, which is a good thing for folks in I-40 areas west of Raleigh.

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On the 6PM news, Fishel showed ensemble forecasts and had 2 temperature lines on the map (I assume they were surface and 850mb) and his main point was that we could be dealing with more freezing rain or rain than snow during the system...  Unless things change...  

 

Fishel never show his hand until like 24 hours to go, though. He would be a great poker player in Vegas...

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The key to the overall track, and therefore temperatures, will be the ultimate phase of the system. Temperatures are dependent on the track, especially aloft. Surface temperatures are an issue south of I-85 (kind of sounds like a normal system for the southeast honestly). When I saw the 18z GFS and the 0z NAM, I thought this looked like a normal classic winter system in the southeast.

Honestly, this seems like the type of system that will screw some people who expect to get this or that, in a really twisted way....I honestly like the rain/snow systems better than these 4 precip. type systems.

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Honestly, this seems like the type of system that will screw some people who expect to get this or that, in a really twisted way....I honestly like the rain/snow systems better than these 4 precip. type systems.

 

I agree 100%. It makes the system very difficult to forecast because the lines are usually so tightly together. Usually 100 miles can be the difference from all snow to a cold rain. It sounds like a lot, but we are discussing a system that is so large.

 

This will be the case this time. The GFS is running and we will see what it shows.

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For a time, the 850 line went north of Raleigh which would cause melting aloft and refreezing near the surface...  

 

But he did point out that it was an average of many members and things could go either way.

I just got the impression from everything here and what folks have said about the models that Raleigh is good for at leas a few inches of snow and maybe some ice based on what the models are showing right now.

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I just got the impression from everything here and what folks have said about the models that Raleigh is good for at leas a few inches of snow and maybe some ice based on what the models are showing right now.

Yeah...  We will see.  From experience, the temps always end up being an issue...  even last year a couple systems started as snow but then a warm nose crept in and changed things.

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