Feb 16th/17th/18th Winter Wx

[strongwxnc]

Congrats ATL

I'll still take that look all day long

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Lookout]

6z DGEX , ( I know) looks luscious , especially from about Athens to GSP to Rock Hill and as south as CAE, not much from NC/SC border north. The jackpot of above mentioned areas

is 10-15 inches!

if 10 to 15 is all i get i guess i'd have to take it.

 

EPS gives much of the foothills and western piedmont a 30-40% chance of dropping below zero next thursday. 

canadian also showed temps dropping to the low single digits and even below zero just west of here. This is one of those rare times that we would get a huge and fresh arctic airmass in here right after a winter event so some really impressive lows could be possible if we can get some decent snow cover.

[LithiaWx]

For anyone windering the trends last night were really good to atlanta. This is turning into quite the event for this area.

[Brick Tamland]

Because some of the tweaks to the physics of the various ensemble members result in significant systems. 

 

Thanks. I guess the other ops do still look good, though. Actually, sounds like all the ops and ensembles look good except for the GFS op.

[South_MountainWX]

I like where i sit. NEVER liked sitting in the bulls eye this far out. But to much suppression will kill it. So id like to see some ticks NW by 12z sunday. But not by much a 25-50 mile shift (GFS) NW would do wonders for the foothills.

[msuwx]

Here's the deal for NC (and VA) interests. The southward, more suppressed trend is concerning. I mentioned that as being the 'worry' that might occur yesterday. And on the operational GEM, GFS, and Euro, the more southward trend continued last night. There has also been a subtle south adjustment of the NAVGEM as well.

 

Now various ensemble members of those models continue to produce big-ticket systems (while some members are dry), and the result is a mean that still looks pretty good for NC. So with the means still looking good, it's best to stay the course for the time being.

 

Now if you are gazing into the models for hope, I would say the hope would be that the UKMET fired the warning shot that the southward trend might stop with it's northward adjustment last night. It has been rock-solid consistent with this system, so to see it shift a bit north is interesting.  

 

And I do keep in my mind that I left the weather office last Friday thinking we would see some scattered shower or light rain last Monday....and we would up with a driving rainstorm all day and evening. 

 

But, I do think the southward/ suppressed trend is quite concerning. 

[burrel2]

SREF Mean looks juicy at the end of it's run.. Has a lot of precip breaking out back in ark/tx/la along with a strip of .1 to .25 already fallen into N. GA/SC/TN/NC through 7pm Monday.

[Brick Tamland]

Here's the deal for NC (and VA) interests. The southward, more suppressed trend is concerning. I mentioned that as being the 'worry' that might occur yesterday. And on the operational GEM, GFS, and Euro, the more southward trend continued last night. There has also been a subtle south adjustment of the NAVGEM as well.

 

Now various ensemble members of those models continue to produce big-ticket systems (while some members are dry), and the result is a mean that still looks pretty good for NC. So with the means still looking good, it's best to stay the course for the time being.

 

Now if you are gazing into the models for hope, I would say the hope would be that the UKMET fired the warning shot that the southward trend might stop with it's northward adjustment last night. It has been rock-solid consistent with this system, so to see it shift a bit north is interesting.  

 

And I do keep in my mind that I left the weather office last Friday thinking we would see some scattered shower or light rain last Monday....and we would up with a driving rainstorm all day and evening. 

 

But, I do think the southward/ suppressed trend is quite concerning. 

 

 

Great post. As long as the ensemble means stay good, we should be okay. And maybe the UKMET is leading the trend back a little north. It is the one that has led the way with this whole system.

[South_MountainWX]

Ive never seen such a southward trend in my few years of model watching. Getting a NW trend seems easier, ive watched it happen several times. But my biggest concern as others have explained is it getting sheared to pieces. Also i hope the DGEX verifys an creams you guys in GA. Kids down there dont see that everyday!

[toxictwister00]

Wow it's hard to listen to nearly the entire forum wish and route for this system to come north. I know everybody wants their backyard to score but what you're hoping for screws a lot of other folks. Nature of the beast I guess... The tone seems so somber in here and there are areas of the SE that would get a big hit form the storm without a north tick.

 

Even if we do start to see a N trend, I hope nobody wants it go as far north as the 00z UKMET had last night. Many of us would get screwed.

[burgertime]

Wow it's hard to listen to nearly the entire forum wish and route for this system to come north. I know everybody wants their backyard to score but what you're hoping for screws a lot of other folks. Nature of the beast I guess... The tone seems so somber in here and there are areas of the SE that would get a big hit form the storm without a north tick.

 

The funny part is, if we see a north trend that means more ZR probably for NC. The best case would be a suppressed system that has a more expansive and wetter north western precip shield which happens a lot during winter storms. 

[LithiaWx]

Even if we do start to see a N trend, I hope nobody wants it go as far north as the 00z UKMET had last night. Many of us would get screwed.

The GFS last night showed two snow events in KATL with temps under 30. One on the 16th one on the 19th. It was a beautiful run.

[msuwx]

I hope to see another Feb 12, 2010 storm. I-20 special. As for the trends, you know NC people are greedy. They need their own board sometimes.

 

 

Wow it's hard to listen to nearly the entire forum wish and route for this system to come north. I know everybody wants their backyard to score but what you're hoping for screws a lot of other folks. Nature of the beast I guess... The tone seems so somber in here and there are areas of the SE that would get a big hit form the storm without a north tick.

 

I guess an implied point of my post was that if the current rate of suppression were to continue, we all end up with suppressed nothingness, like the 6z GFS. If the runs were to hold their current position (minus the 6z GFS), I think many on the board would be happy. But we all know that likely isn't the correct solution, it's likely either going north or south, and most folks should hope the south trend doesn't continue or most, if not all, could wind up with nothing as the system becomes completely northern-branch dominant.

[Lookout]

Why do you care? More than one person is entitled to there opinion.

I just get so tired of all the angles in here if you dont like what someone says, keep it shut. Geeez

Agreed. It's only natural for folks to find a way for a storm to give their area more if they are on the edge and there is no harm in doing so as long as it is within reason... and I don't see anyone saying anything unreasonable.

 

 

 

I guess an implied point of my post was that if the current rate of suppression were to continue, we all end up with suppressed nothingness, like the 6z GFS. If the runs were to hold their current position (minus the 6z GFS), I think many on the board would be happy. But we all know that likely isn't the correct solution, it's likely either going north or south, and most folks should hope the south trend doesn't continue or most, if not all, could wind up with nothing as the system becomes completely northern-branch dominant.

Exactly...it doesn't matter who you are or where you are, any more suppression and it's bad news.

[SnowNiner]

Here's the deal for NC (and VA) interests. The southward, more suppressed trend is concerning. I mentioned that as being the 'worry' that might occur yesterday. And on the operational GEM, GFS, and Euro, the more southward trend continued last night. There has also been a subtle south adjustment of the NAVGEM as well.

 

Now various ensemble members of those models continue to produce big-ticket systems (while some members are dry), and the result is a mean that still looks pretty good for NC. So with the means still looking good, it's best to stay the course for the time being.

 

Now if you are gazing into the models for hope, I would say the hope would be that the UKMET fired the warning shot that the southward trend might stop with it's northward adjustment last night. It has been rock-solid consistent with this system, so to see it shift a bit north is interesting.  

 

And I do keep in my mind that I left the weather office last Friday thinking we would see some scattered shower or light rain last Monday....and we would up with a driving rainstorm all day and evening. 

 

But, I do think the southward/ suppressed trend is quite concerning. 

 

Thanks for the post Matt.  Good to hear from you on this threat. 

 

Ironic that we're talking about a potential suppresed solution when the opposite has been the issue all year.  It's always something.  Very interested to see the 12Z runs today.  I'm more inclined to think the UKMET has the hot hand as it has for several storms lately.  That along with the EURO being decent and the Ensembles all being good for NC too, I think the 12Z runs have a good chance to get back into the phase.

 

Edit: With that said it seems past history has wanted the baja low to eject giving us fantasy storms, only to lock it up and not eject, IIRC.  So yeah.  Guess it's just wait and see.

[burgertime]

I guess an implied point of my post was that if the current rate of suppression were to continue, we all end up with suppressed nothingness, like the 6z GFS. If the runs were to hold their current position (minus the 6z GFS), I think many on the board would be happy. But we all know that likely isn't the correct solution, it's likely either going north or south, and most folks should hope the south trend doesn't continue or most, if not all, could wind up with nothing as the system becomes completely northern-branch dominant.

 

All good points this morning Matt. This has been such a tough winter for you guys. Model madness seems to happen with almost every system. I don't quite buy that cutoff retrograding. That has happened a lot on the models only for it to eject quicker than the models show. The other factor is just that well systems going into the meat grinder tend to be much better molded all this winter vs. these bigger storms. I think the UK met may end up being closer to reality just due to this winter and past storms. I am just rooting for the solution with less ZR. 

[Cold Rain]

I want the solution that gives me the most snow. Not sorry about that. But, that said, I hope we all score. I like the more southern/suppressed look right now. There's going to be plenty of concern for further suppression and plenty of concern for northern ticks and plenty of concern for overcoming dry air and plenty of concern for Gulf convection robbing moisture transport and plenty of concern for warm noses, but right now, especially the way this winter has played out, I like where we sit.

[Brick Tamland]

I think where we are is fine right now. Everything still looks good except the GFS op. And I would not be surprised to see the models start to trend back north with the system, and we end up somewhere in the middle.

[toxictwister00]

The GFS last night showed two snow events in KATL with temps under 30. One on the 16th one on the 19th. It was a beautiful run.

 I looked at the model extraction data for that run, it was the first GFS run to show all -SN for both events.

 

[Wow]

Only 4 or 5 of the 21 6z GEFS members show the baja low being completely left behind.  In fact, most of the members show quite an amped low with the baja energy being injected into system.  AND, even of those few showing the baja energy back in the southwest STILL manage deepen the leading LP moreso than the 6z operational and give a decent show to many.

 

I'm still in the camp that thinks this will be a moisture-filled system moving somewhere through the Deep South, not weak and sheared out over the GOM.

[WXinCanton]

From the 6z GFS fwiw

 

[Lookout]

 I looked at the model extraction data for that run, it was the first GFS run to show all -SN for both events.

 

canadian shows a big difference between athens and atlanta in terms of accumulation. Extracted data gives athens roughly 8 or 9 inches of snow while atlanta gets a crippling ice storm. I doubt it plays out this way but fun to look at.

 

buckeye would be happy with the canadian too..it gives here about 5 inches of snow and a nice 0.30 of glaze on top

 

Here is atlanta first, athens second.

Station ID: KATL Lat:   33.64 Long:  -84.42                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        
 GEM Model Run:  0Z FEB 13, 2015                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    
 Forecast Hours:    0hr    3hr    6hr    9hr   12hr   15hr   18hr   21hr   24hr   27hr   30hr   33hr   36hr   39hr   42hr   45hr   48hr   51hr   54hr   57hr   60hr   63hr   66hr   69hr   72hr   75hr   78hr   81hr   84hr   87hr   90hr   93hr   96hr   99hr  102hr  105hr  108hr  111hr  114hr  117hr  120hr                                                     
 Sfc Prs(mb):     990.6  992.4  992.3  992.0  992.6  994.2  992.5  990.4  990.1  990.4  989.9  989.4  988.6  988.1  985.6  982.4  982.0  984.1  987.2  990.3  993.7  994.2  992.7  991.2  991.0  991.4  990.7  990.5  990.7  990.1  988.1  986.2  985.5  984.0  982.1  981.4  982.5  984.3  984.1  983.7  985.0                                                     
 Mean SLP (mb):  1024.0 1026.4 1026.5 1026.5 1027.1 1028.4 1026.2 1023.7 1023.7 1024.3 1024.1 1023.4 1022.8 1021.5 1018.2 1014.6 1014.3 1016.7 1020.4 1024.2 1028.4 1028.7 1026.7 1024.8 1024.8 1025.5 1025.1 1024.9 1025.0 1024.2 1021.7 1019.6 1019.2 1017.7 1015.7 1015.0 1016.4 1018.0 1017.3 1016.8 1018.5                                                     
 2m agl Tmp (F):   33.0   28.5   25.3   24.3   23.6   30.3   37.9   41.8   34.4   27.5   25.4   25.0   23.9   37.5   50.1   56.0   53.6   49.7   38.0   24.5   18.2   21.9   30.8   33.9   29.5   25.5   25.9   27.8   27.5   29.9   31.8   31.7   31.1   31.1   31.4   31.2   31.2   33.1   36.7   37.2   31.6                                                     
 2m AGL Dewpt(F):  10.8    7.1    6.2    6.0    4.9    6.6    9.7    9.9    7.8    8.3   10.2   10.4   10.4   13.2   23.0   28.1   30.7   35.1   17.5   -1.6   -5.3   -5.1   -1.2    0.7    0.8    0.1    0.5    1.9    8.5   14.7   24.5   28.2   29.8   30.4   30.9   30.5   30.1   30.1   30.1   28.7   24.0                                                     
 2m agl RH (%):      39     40     44     45     44     36     31     27     32     44     52     54     56     36     34     33     41     57     43     32     35     30     25     24     29     33     33     32     44     53     74     86     95     97     98     97     96     88     77     71     73                                                     
 10m agl W  Dir:    329    349    348    341    338    326    282    289    285    296    279    275    258    267    270    271    275    300    319    328    335    353    348    323    309    316    320    330    340    104    128    107    138    117     73     20    359    334    328    324    325                                                     
 10m agl Spd(kt):    10     10      7      7      5      4      4      5      4      4      5      5      4      6     10     13     14     15     16     13     12     12      8      7      5      6      4      4      4      4      4      4      5      6      5      6      5      8      8     10      8                                                     
 3hr Precip (in):  0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.02   0.01   0.07   0.16   0.27   0.22   0.21   0.10   0.01   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00                                                     
 AccumPrecip(in):  0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.02   0.03   0.10   0.26   0.53   0.75   0.96   1.06   1.07   1.07   1.07   1.07   1.07                                                     
 3hr CPrecip (in)  0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00                                                     
 700mb VV(-ub/s):  2.52  -0.29   1.60   1.62   0.87  -0.27  -0.76  -1.12  -1.78   1.00  -0.28  -0.49  -0.02  -0.92  -3.38  -3.22  -1.68  -4.25  -4.96  -0.90  -1.15  -2.58   0.68  -1.73   0.59   2.15   2.16   3.05   3.73   2.87   5.11   9.46  12.28  12.21   9.30   5.66   0.83  -0.30   0.79   2.41   2.66                                                     
 Thk1000-500mb(m)5428.8 5412.8 5394.9 5371.1 5351.9 5338.5 5350.1 5375.9 5392.6 5400.1 5394.9 5390.2 5390.2 5401.2 5437.4 5463.1 5465.1 5454.0 5434.3 5414.7 5397.8 5414.6 5429.1 5436.4 5442.1 5440.8 5439.1 5432.5 5431.1 5443.2 5453.2 5457.9 5462.3 5474.7 5475.3 5461.3 5439.7 5424.6 5413.6 5392.6 5367.9                                                     
 Thk1000-850mb(m)1279.3 1270.9 1268.6 1270.6 1272.9 1273.6 1283.3 1295.1 1295.5 1293.7 1292.7 1292.6 1293.9 1301.1 1318.4 1337.0 1340.6 1326.3 1292.3 1264.4 1252.2 1257.3 1268.9 1282.0 1286.1 1288.5 1290.8 1289.6 1286.1 1293.8 1296.2 1295.3 1298.4 1303.1 1305.6 1300.7 1296.0 1294.9 1299.2 1298.7 1296.4                                                     
 Thk850-700mb(m):1542.0 1547.7 1544.8 1537.0 1529.2 1521.3 1520.0 1522.1 1527.7 1528.9 1530.5 1533.8 1538.3 1542.6 1550.8 1550.4 1546.3 1538.5 1544.7 1549.3 1548.7 1556.0 1557.5 1556.3 1558.3 1557.5 1556.0 1551.4 1551.1 1553.0 1556.8 1557.7 1555.4 1559.5 1562.8 1561.2 1552.1 1547.2 1540.4 1531.3 1521.0                                                     
 Heat Index (F):     33     28     25     24     24     30     38     42     34     27     25     25     24     38     50     56     54     50     38     25     18     22     31     34     30     25     26     28     27     30     32     32     31     31     31     31     31     33     37     37     32                                                     
 WindChillTmp (F)    24     18     17     15     16     25     35     42     30     22     19     19     18     32     50     56     54     50     28     12      4      9     23     27     24     18     20     23     23     26     28     28     26     25     26     24     25     26     30     30     24                                                     
 PType:                                                                                                                                                                                                              SNOW   SNOW   FROZEN FROZEN FROZEN FROZEN FROZEN FROZEN FROZEN                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                         
 GEM Model Run:  0Z FEB 13, 2015                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    
 Forecast Hours:    0hr    3hr    6hr    9hr   12hr   15hr   18hr   21hr   24hr   27hr   30hr   33hr   36hr   39hr   42hr   45hr   48hr   51hr   54hr   57hr   60hr   63hr   66hr   69hr   72hr   75hr   78hr   81hr   84hr   87hr   90hr   93hr   96hr   99hr  102hr  105hr  108hr  111hr  114hr  117hr  120hr                                                     
 Sfc Prs(mb):     995.3  997.8  997.6  997.7  998.6 1000.2  998.6  996.3  995.9  996.1  995.6  994.8  994.2  993.6  990.5  987.0  986.0  988.2  991.5  994.4  998.4  999.5  997.4  996.4  996.0  996.8  996.8  996.6  996.6  997.0  994.9  993.1  992.7  991.6  989.5  987.8  988.3  989.8  989.0  988.1  989.5                                                     
 Mean SLP (mb):  1022.2 1025.3 1025.3 1025.5 1026.6 1027.9 1025.8 1023.3 1023.1 1023.6 1023.2 1022.5 1021.8 1020.5 1017.0 1013.0 1012.2 1014.5 1018.3 1021.9 1026.3 1027.3 1024.9 1023.6 1023.5 1024.6 1024.7 1024.6 1024.7 1024.6 1022.3 1020.2 1020.0 1018.9 1016.8 1015.0 1015.7 1017.1 1016.0 1014.9 1016.6                                                     
 2m agl Tmp (F):   35.4   31.3   28.1   26.1   24.6   32.6   39.5   42.9   35.8   30.9   28.6   28.3   27.8   37.8   49.0   54.4   53.3   50.1   38.0   27.6   22.1   26.0   35.1   39.3   33.3   29.1   27.1   27.4   27.9   31.6   36.2   34.4   32.0   31.0   30.7   30.5   30.3   34.5   41.6   43.7   36.6                                                     
 2m AGL Dewpt(F):  10.2    6.7    5.4    5.2    6.0    6.8    7.6    8.2    8.9    9.4    9.8   11.0   10.8   12.3   20.3   26.3   31.0   33.7    9.4   -3.0   -6.8   -8.5   -6.4   -3.1    1.4    1.5    3.3    4.4    5.8    7.7   14.1   24.8   28.7   29.8   29.8   29.7   28.9   30.3   32.4   31.1   22.9                                                     
 2m agl RH (%):      35     35     38     40     45     33     26     23     32     40     45     48     49     35     32     33     42     53     30     26     27     21     16     16     25     30     36     37     39     36     40     67     87     95     96     97     95     84     69     60     57                                                     
 10m agl W  Dir:    322    338    342    332    359    113    198    243    247    269    276    277    273    269    269    267    271    294    307    315    319    338    356    267    251    267    264    297     26    114    147    158    118     94     73     36     19    347    310    304    312                                                     
 10m agl Spd(kt):     8      7      5      4      2      2      3      3      4      5      5      5      5      5      8     11     13     14     13     10      9      8      4      4      3      4      3      2      3      3      3      3      3      3      4      4      4      3      2      5      7                                                     
 3hr Precip (in):  0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.01   0.09   0.16   0.20   0.20   0.19   0.04   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00                                                     
 AccumPrecip(in):  0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.01   0.02   0.11   0.27   0.46   0.67   0.86   0.90   0.90   0.90   0.90   0.90                                                     
 3hr CPrecip (in)  0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00                                                     
 700mb VV(-ub/s): -0.54   0.70   2.30   1.62   1.06   1.48  -0.76  -2.37  -1.69   1.00  -0.42   0.12   2.34  -0.03  -1.57  -4.38  -3.18  -4.01  -1.51   2.12   1.70  -1.17  -3.03  -1.90  -2.03  -1.19   0.20   0.06   0.67  -0.23  -0.55   7.89  11.03   7.01   8.61   9.10   0.83  -0.19   0.60   2.39   2.86                                                     
 Thk1000-500mb(m)5423.2 5405.0 5389.9 5366.0 5342.1 5325.7 5332.9 5356.8 5374.7 5386.7 5386.7 5384.4 5382.6 5390.3 5421.0 5450.1 5452.0 5438.1 5418.9 5401.2 5380.4 5392.5 5417.0 5424.2 5434.4 5429.5 5423.0 5419.1 5421.8 5427.5 5437.5 5443.2 5447.2 5457.2 5461.0 5457.1 5439.5 5426.4 5418.0 5404.0 5379.3                                                     
 Thk1000-850mb(m)1283.7 1275.0 1272.5 1272.1 1271.2 1271.8 1282.2 1295.1 1296.5 1294.0 1292.1 1290.9 1292.5 1297.5 1313.6 1332.7 1337.3 1323.8 1291.1 1265.9 1252.5 1255.7 1272.2 1285.5 1289.3 1288.9 1288.5 1286.7 1281.7 1283.7 1290.0 1290.3 1292.1 1295.3 1298.1 1298.5 1295.8 1296.3 1303.1 1306.9 1302.5                                                     
 Thk850-700mb(m):1534.8 1536.2 1538.0 1531.6 1524.5 1516.7 1512.3 1513.6 1521.6 1524.3 1526.1 1530.7 1536.1 1541.0 1547.3 1546.9 1541.4 1531.1 1535.5 1538.5 1536.7 1544.8 1547.6 1542.4 1549.1 1548.6 1547.6 1546.0 1549.4 1551.7 1553.0 1552.9 1553.4 1554.6 1557.5 1559.0 1552.2 1547.3 1540.5 1533.1 1523.2                                                     
 Heat Index (F):     35     31     28     26     25     33     40     43     36     31     29     28     28     38     49     54     53     50     38     28     22     26     35     39     33     29     27     27     28     32     36     34     32     31     31     31     30     35     42     44     37                                                     
 WindChillTmp (F)    29     24     22     21     25     33     37     43     32     25     23     22     22     33     49     54     53     50     29     17     11     17     31     36     30     24     27     27     25     28     33     32     29     27     26     26     26     32     42     44     30                                                     
 PType:                                                                                                                                                                                                                              IP   SNOW   SNOW   SNOW   SNOW   SNOW   SNOW                                   

[BullCityWx]

SREF Plumes has 1.15" as a mean for CLT through 7PM Monday. 

[Buddy1987]

Only 4 or 5 of the 21 6z GEFS members show the baja low being completely left behind. In fact, most of the members show quite an amped low with the baja energy being injected into system. AND, even of those few showing the baja energy back in the southwest STILL manage deepen the leading LP moreso than the 6z operational and give a decent show to many.

I'm still in the camp that thinks this will be a moisture-filled system moving somewhere through the Deep South, not weak and sheared out over the GOM.

Wow it's good to see you posting. Anytime there is a significant event threatening, you provide great analysis and depiction of the models. Really appreciate it. First post on this impending storm, but I feel as though most of us are in a good position. Between the ensembles of the GFS and EURO as well as the UKMET and I believe it was either the 18z or 0z NAVGEM there are definitely a lot of positives in my mind. Would love to see the Canadian come back today showing a heck of a storm like it was yesterday and have the models start converging on a solution. Where do we want the vortex exactly in New England, role wise to park itself in order to not squash the storm so much? Or is it the northern stream system doing its dirty work like all year ultimately suppressing the storm?

[Buddy1987]

SREF Plumes has 1.15" as a mean for CLT through 7PM Monday.

Are they showing a sharp cutoff as well further north or do they distribute the wealth fairly well?

[BullCityWx]

Are they showing a sharp cutoff as well further north or do they distribute the wealth fairly well?

 

It doesnt really show much for ROA but thats a really early time period for you guys. 

[Buddy1987]

It doesnt really show much for ROA but thats a really early time period for you guys.

Yea true, if anything it would be a Tuesday into Wednesday thing. Thanks for that man appreciate it. On my phone so..

[griteater]

500mb height trend for Tues morning on the last 3 runs of the Euro Ensemble Mean.  East Pacific ridge axis has trended east (expanded east) and heights have trended lower in the southeast, both leading to the more suppressed and colder solution.  As Cold Rain said, I like where we stand at the moment.

 

[packfan98]

Less interaction between the northern energy and the baha low at hour 60 on the 12z nam.

[Tacoma]

most cases these storms as we all know tend to tick north and will be surprised if this doesn't happen this time.  sometime today or tonight we'll probably see the ticking start north with this storm.