max100 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 look at the 2m temps...33-35 for us...RAIN, and good lord gonna be cold For you in Macon, not Atlanta... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The nam is confusing me a little bit. It puts the CAD regions of SC/GA right at 31/32 Tuesday morning during the storm. I would imagine it should be colder than this... And if you like at the 5h map you would think there's decent confluence for a high pressure in the perfect spot. Yet, when you look at the surface map, instead of a high pressure system there's basic just a void space in that region when no winds blowing in any particular direction??? Hard for me to imagine we wouldn't at least have a 1028ish high centered in that void with a light Northeast wind cranking down from it. The nam has temps at the surface here at around 30 degrees in ga/upstate monday morning. Dewpoints are in the single digits, low to mid single digits at that. Yet it doesn't show much of a response after saturation..which is sort of odd because the previous two runs showed the temp drop pretty well. Indeed it showed temps staying in the 20s throughout the run. I hate to keep harping on the dewpoint/wetbulb thing but the mishandling of it will make a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 actually it's right at or slightly below freezing here/northeast ga through 84 hours. The nam has some questionable warming for a time after the initial thump of snow/sleet so even here these temps are questionable. never mind it not dropping temps to their wetbulbs to start with, despite some very respectable precip monday am. at face value this would be a huge winter storm here I agree...verbatim I am at like 34-35, your like right at or slight below, like you said. I do like the NAM has a wedge in there. not a strong high, but that will help. how did Td's look this run? and I agree...its the extended NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 At 925mb it's plenty cold at 84 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 GSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I will take that and run. I don't care about the rest of the event. I would take that as well - would be more than my totals from the storm last year. Call me pessimistic, cynical, realistic, or hesitant; but I can't shake a few concerns. First, even though the precip is not coming from Tennessee (like with a clipper), the angle of the N GA mtns will still result in some downslope drying just to their East (NEGA through area NW of GSP). Second, I would feel much better if the high over the MA were more in the 1030 -1035 range with a little blocking, and the low was more along the lines of a 1008 instead of a 1013. I also am not crazy about the on again/off again one-two punch. That is sounding more and more like last year's Feb storm, which, while good for most people, was agonizing for me. Having the two pieces spaced out during the daytime screams "warming above freezing" to me and that is no good in the SE outside the mtns. Lastly, the exceptionally dry air progged seems like a recipe for an enormous virga storm with a frustrated pack of window watchers down below. I don't know, perhaps I am just worried about a big let down here, but just not "feeling" good about this one for the upstate. Something else I notice is that there always seems to be a leading finger of precip that is farther North and gets Tennessee/ WNC for hours while NEGA and Upstate remains dry and warms. That is showing up on models again too. We'll see, I hope this one comes together for most of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Man! Oh how iv'e missed seeing the radar look like that during the winter. Snow time!!! Be careful, at hour 84 850 freezing line runs from just north of charlotte right through Raleigh. There would have been some snow to start but I would believe many would start mixing shortly after hour 84. 850 temps at hour 84: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150214+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Not to forget to mention NAM got somewhat of high QPF bias. I don't think we'll see that much moisture moving into the area, but that's just me. it's very likely over done. I don't trust the long range nam as far as i could throw it But it's the only thing we have new to work with right now so what else are you going to do lol edit..you know what screw it, the nam snow map is so silly based on 800 and 850mb temps it's not worth posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I have a feeling this would be a bigger storm for TUE/WED by looking at the H5 look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Be careful, at hour 84 850 freezing line runs from just north of charlotte right through Raleigh. There would have been some snow to start but I would believe many would start mixing shortly after hour 84. 850 temps at hour 84: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150214+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Don't understand how it's showing temps in the 30s on Monday morning? Wasn't it suppose to be single digits and teens for lows Sunday night, or are we not that cold anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I kind of wish this was a storm that only had snow or rain. Looking at those snow maps knowing some of it is sleet or ice can be a little disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 At 925mb it's plenty cold at 84 hrs Sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I have a feeling this would be a bigger storm for TUE/WED by looking at the H5 look How are the temps if we get the storm goes out that far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 If the baja wave comes all the way out like the 18z GFS and 00z NAM, it should be stout on precip amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I have a feeling this would be a bigger storm for TUE/WED by looking at the H5 lookit's phasing with the baja low and gearing up for storm number 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The NAM tends to be overdone at 72-84 so I'd expect the GFS will come in slightly flatter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 If the baja wave comes all the way out like the 18z GFS and 00z NAM, it should be stout on precip amounts Fair enough. I thought it was NAM showing its high QPF bias, but h5 Baja energy phased very well. We'll see if we get that much phasing going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I have a feeling this would be a bigger storm for TUE/WED by looking at the H5 lookI was thinking the same thing when I looked at h5. That looked awesome for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 If the baja wave comes all the way out like the 18z GFS and 00z NAM, it should be stout on precip amounts yeah, but doesn't that bring a system too amplified (ie. more waa for zr and plain ole rain) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The nam has been really bad this winter around here IMO. I wouldn't put much stock in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Don't understand how it's showing temps in the 30s on Monday morning? Wasn't it suppose to be single digits and teens for lows Sunday night, or are we not that cold anymore? Yeah, that map isn't good for anyone in SC wanting snow at that time. The forcasted lows for most of the week seem to have risen quite a bit over the last couple of days. My guess is the cloud cover is now expected to take over quicker and thicker and will keep us from getting down into the teens and low 20s those nights. And warm nosing is always a concern around here for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 yeah, but doesn't that bring a system too amplified (ie. more waa for zr and plain ole rain) Yes, yes, and yes. You and I need the more suppressed Euro Op idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Latest from WPC for Tues at 12z (pretty much matches up with the big 3 ensemble means) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Latest from WPC for Tues at 12z (pretty much matches up with the big 3 ensemble means) That is not bad. I will take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Don't understand how it's showing temps in the 30s on Monday morning? Wasn't it suppose to be single digits and teens for lows Sunday night, or are we not that cold anymore? As Hickory and others have said I wouldn't put much stock in its' details(temps or precip totals) at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yep..it's almost laughable how much difference there is between this run and the last several. A thousand miles of precipitation that wasn't there the last few runs is there now. Fun to look at it but hardly to be taken seriously. that said, it sure would be a monster storm here if it worked out. Both 18z GFS and 0z NAM phase baja low...500 at 84 and 90 respectively look identical. If true will have implications on the idea of suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 NAM is warmer on Monday because the storm is just that much slower. You're looking at 34 for a high instead of 28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The nam has been really bad this winter around here IMO. I wouldn't put much stock in it. thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 gfs running, this will be a big run to see if the temps remain an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The key to the overall track, and therefore temperatures, will be the ultimate phase of the system. Temperatures are dependent on the track, especially aloft. Surface temperatures are an issue south of I-85 (kind of sounds like a normal system for the southeast honestly). When I saw the 18z GFS and the 0z NAM, I thought this looked like a normal classic winter system in the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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