CaryWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 feels surreal to see this only 90 hrs out. hope the models hone in on totals here over the next 24hrs. I think you will. First calls tomorrow and WWAs and WSWs come out Sun afternoon I'm guessing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I think you will. First calls tomorrow and WWAs and WSWs come out Sun afternoon I'm guessing gfs would have been a monster if it werent for the marginal temps. will be interested in seeing if the 00z run has the same temp issue or if it falls in line with other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 There's a tight cluster of members around 3" by 87 for CLT The NAVGEM solution got me thinking that if the baja and PJ energy swings through fast enough and catches up to the first wave making for one big cold storm rather than 2 distinct waves... The mean SREF actually looks very similar to the startup of the NAVGEM solution albeit weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The NAVGEM solution got me thinking that if the baja and PJ energy swings through fast enough and catches up to the first wave making for one big cold storm... The SREF actually looks very similar to the startup of the NAVGEM solution.What is that 2m temp map showing? I saw the chart, but still don't know what I was seeing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 What is that 2m temp map showing? I saw the chart, but still don't know what I was seeing? It's cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 What is that 2m temp map showing? I saw the chart, but still don't know what I was seeing? no temp issues for sure. 0c for the upper 2/3 of sc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It's cold. Yep, freezing line runs through the northern half of GA through 4/5s of SC and almost all of NC (except maybe the beaches). This would be a huge hit as more precip is incoming. 2m temps again: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=087ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F21%2Fsref_namer_087_2m_temp.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=2m_temp&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150213+21+UTC&imageSize=&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 From, Robert's Facebook page WxSouth 24 mins · There's still no easy answers to how far north and west the storm will pull next week. We do know a snow band comes from the first wave of the storm Sunday night and Monday for western Carolinas, Tennessee, northern Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi and some of the areas from the mountains WEST will get a few inches out of that. Then the flow will begin to back from the Gulf quickly Monday night. And this is where all the models have their own ideas. Does enough backing occur ...to create more snow and sleet in the South? How far north will the moisture return? It all depends on the interaction that occurs Monday in the Southwest states...there's a low that will try to phase in with the main system diving quickly through the 4 corners region of the Southwest and it's a guess as to whether it merges, or not. Right now, I think a partial phase is coming, and that fits the bill with what happens all Winter , where precip has pulled further north than most models would show at this stage of the game. The European was sort of supressed and dropped snow east to west, hammering TN to North Carolina. The GFS though is backing the flow much more, and the ensembles of all respective models back the flow much more. At this point, all we can do is either wait and see if there's ever any good agreement--but I'll take a risk here and say the flow DOES back more than most models show , and that means a pretty big snow event on the north side of the track of the low, from northern Alabama, eastern half of Tennessee, the western part of SC, northern Georgia, much of NC and VA and then Up the East Coast...but I can't guarantee it. You never know. Look where the longwave axis lines up on GFS model: if this is right (next to Mississippi River) then the Storm should pull substantially north and west dropping copious rain and snow, with a narrow band of Sleet on Monday night, Tuesday and Tuesday Night, ending Wednesday for the MidAtlantic. The next couple of model runs will say yay or nay--once I get an idea of the main longwave trough axis, I'll have much more confidence on the final track. For now this is how I think it will be though: See More Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Nam looks like it's setting up for one consolidated storm to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 nam out to 54, snow breaking out in tn and extreme western nc. precip looks a bit faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Looks like 54 comparing at 60 18z is a tad more west with the western energy don't know how that will translate in subsequent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 precip def coming in a tad quicker thru 60. but starts to fizzle a bit at 63. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Hr 60 the western energy is stronger for sure keep digging!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 much more suppressed with the initial wave thru 66 compared to 18z. no precip in nc. snow in mid to upper sc. icy in ga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I still wouldn't hang much on the NAM at this range....still far enough out to not be completely trusted. I am however looking forward to tonight's major model runs because we are certainly in the euros wheelhouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 At 69 and 72 this is about to get good. Both baja low and western energy are about to phase! Kind of like a 5h setup like 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I've read you all say that the DGEX snow maps can't be trusted, but have you seen the 18z? Looks like it shuts out most of NC except the coastal areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 fwiw (not much) nam ends up plastering central ga thru central sc down to chas with ice. thru 75 still no precip in nc. nam at this range is just for entertainment though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 wow the 0z nam is super wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Widespread freezing rain on Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 wow the 0z nam is super wet. Quite similar to the 18z GFS from a quick look. 850 zero line thru I-85 by 84 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 wow the 0z nam is super wet. look at the 2m temps...33-35 for us...RAIN, and good lord gonna be cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 fwiw (not much) nam ends up plastering central ga thru central sc down to chas with ice. thru 75 still no precip in nc. nam at this range is just for entertainment though. Yep..it's almost laughable how much difference there is between this run and the last several. A thousand miles of precipitation that wasn't there the last few runs is there now. Fun to look at it but hardly to be taken seriously. that said, it sure would be a monster storm here if it worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 wow the 0z nam is super wet. Yep, temps are iffy for north GA. Maybe a decent IP hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 look at the 2m temps...33-35 for us...RAIN, and good lord gonna be cold actually it's right at or slightly below freezing here/northeast ga through 84 hours. The nam has some questionable warming for a time after the initial thump of snow/sleet so even here these temps are questionable. never mind it not dropping temps to their wetbulbs to start with, despite some very respectable precip monday am. at face value this would be a huge winter storm here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Looks similar to GFS in a lot of ways not surprising since its boundary conditions come from GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The nam is confusing me a little bit. It puts the CAD regions of SC/GA right at 31/32 Tuesday morning during the storm. I would imagine it should be colder than this... And if you like at the 5h map you would think there's decent confluence for a high pressure in the perfect spot. Yet, when you look at the surface map, instead of a high pressure system there's basically just a void space in that region with no winds blowing in any particular direction??? Hard for me to imagine we wouldn't at least have a 1028ish high centered in that void with a light Northeast wind cranking down from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 0z NAM simulated Radar at hour 84: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=sim_radar&fhr=084&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150214+00+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Not to forget to mention NAM got somewhat of high QPF bias. I don't think we'll see that much moisture moving into the area, but that's just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 0z NAM simulated Radar at hour 84: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=sim_radar&fhr=084&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150214+00+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Man! Oh how iv'e missed seeing the radar look like that during the winter. Snow time!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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