Stormsfury Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 no kidding...tells me the GFS is still to warm at least at 2m. I really think the VERY low Td's that are being forecasted (from what I have seen) are going to play havoc on Monday. The NAM looks like its trying to hit on this point. Have to wait and see if the usual temp scheme catch up starts to occur with the downward temp trends as we get closer to game time. I mean even with it all, the 18z Global Frustrate System had TD's at -7 on 12z Monday at KCHS! Sorry, as Lookout stated, you won't warm up with precip saturating the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Confidence! Do you have the maps for, say, 1 or 2"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Lol that looks great, nothing for me!!!! Streak looks to hold That northern foothills snow hole is brutal. I can't imagine that verifying though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Question , is the Monday " event" going to bring in more cold air befor the second event on Tuesday or Wednesday , or do we have to rely on temps to stay below freezing from Monday to Wednesday , to get any wintry precip from 2 nd wave, if there is one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 That northern foothills snow hole is brutal. I can't imagine that verifying though. It wouldn't surprise me a bit though!! I love downsloping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Do you have the maps for, say, 1 or 2"?it has 1 and 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 18z GEFS mean snow totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Has anyone looked at the 18z GEFS individual members to see if the tracks have converged more than 12z? It seems as if there was still quite a bit of spread earlier today. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 18z GEFS mean snow totals how does the ensemble look for the first wave? wondering if the op is an outlier keeping nc so dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Has anyone looked at the 18z GEFS individual members to see if the tracks have converged more than 12z? It seems as if there was still quite a bit of spread earlier today. Thanks. Yes, there was 2 a tick west of the 18z Op, there was 3 or 4 whiffs essentially and the 12-13 were good hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 how does the ensemble look for the first wave? wondering if the op is an outlier keeping nc so dry. NC isn't dry on the 18z GFS, it's warm. The first wave, if you want to call it that, just stalls out over LA with the leading edge of precip never making it out of Georgia. When the next wave of energy picks it up that is when precip spreads over the rest of the region and it moves NE and strengthens rather quickly. Just looking at the ensemble mean I would imagine that a few members are 6-12 hours faster with the onset of precipitation in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 NC isn't dry on the 18z GFS, it's warm. first wave is dry, doesnt make it above the sc/nc border, then the 2nd wave treks inland and we have worrisome temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yes, there was 2 a tick west of the 18z Op, there was 3 or 4 whiffs essentially and the 12-13 were good hits. Pretty solid. I'm surprised that there are still 3-4 whiffs if they were caused by suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 ice storm time!!! but in all reality p-types will not be all snow for charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Can we save Winter? Or we all going to be disappointed again.... New video is up. Check it out, and like my page if you don't mind. Thanks for watching. https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Can we save Winter? Or we all going to be disappointed again.... New video is up. Check it out, and like my page if you don't mind. Thanks for watching. https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Great Video as always Chris. I hope you are being conservative, but you are a straight shooter and just telling me like it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Pretty solid. I'm surprised that there are still 3-4 whiffs if they were caused by suppression. I didn't look real hard at why as they were the minority. Looking more closely, it's 2 complete whiffs and 2 others that have roughly 0.25"-0.5" of precip in NC. With the 0.5" in central/eastern NC. I am still of the opinion of just hoping for the over-running would be the best bet, 2-4" type event for NC, but when coastals want to develop they develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Can we save Winter? Or we all going to be disappointed again.... New video is up. Check it out, and like my page if you don't mind. Thanks for watching. https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Been watching you for awhile Chris. Good work this evening. You sound a bit rough buddy. Sudafed time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Sref mean is shooting up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Sref mean is shooting up! yep, up to 2" here in rdu out to 7am tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Great Video as always Chris. I hope you are being conservative, but you are a straight shooter and just telling me like it is. thank you! I am just a little bit, still worried about a few things, but I think it should be aight in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Been watching you for awhile Chris. Good work this evening. You sound a bit rough buddy. Sudafed time? Thanks! Oh heck ya, when I get home sleepy time! haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 SREF bringing it in... snow total up to 87 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farleydawg79 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 SREF bringing it in... snow total up to 87 hrs Is there a map for IP or ZR with the SREF? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 SREF bringing it in... snow total up to 87 hrs feels surreal to see this only 90 hrs out. hope the models hone in on totals here over the next 24hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 SREF bringing it in... snow total up to 87 hrs 2m temps at hour 87: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=087ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F21%2Fsref_namer_087_2m_temp.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=2m_temp&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150213+21+UTC&imageSize=&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 There's a tight cluster of members around 3" by 87 for CLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 SREF bringing it in... snow total up to 87 hrs I will take that and run. I don't care about the rest of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 2m temps at hour 87: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=087&image=data%2Fsref%2F21%2Fsref_namer_087_2m_temp.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=2m_temp&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150213+21+UTC&imageSize=&ps=model It ain't raining! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Is there a map for IP or ZR with the SREF? Sent from my iPhone ZR is the highest pop for AHN by the end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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