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Feb 16th/17th/18th Winter Wx


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no kidding...tells me the GFS is still to warm at least at 2m. I really think the VERY low Td's that are being forecasted (from what I have seen) are going to play havoc on Monday. The NAM looks like its trying to hit on this point.

Have to wait and see if the usual temp scheme catch up starts to occur with the downward temp trends as we get closer to game time. I mean even with it all, the 18z Global Frustrate System had TD's at -7 on 12z Monday at KCHS! Sorry, as Lookout stated, you won't warm up with precip saturating the column.

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Has anyone looked at the 18z GEFS individual members to see if the tracks have converged more than 12z? It seems as if there was still quite a bit of spread earlier today. Thanks.

Yes, there was 2 a tick west of the 18z Op, there was 3 or 4 whiffs essentially and the 12-13 were good hits.

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how does the ensemble look for the first wave?  wondering if the op is an outlier keeping nc so dry.

NC isn't dry on the 18z GFS, it's warm.

 

The first wave, if you want to call it that, just stalls out over LA with the leading edge of precip never making it out of Georgia. When the next wave of energy picks it up that is when precip spreads over the rest of the region and it moves NE and strengthens rather quickly.

 

Just looking at the ensemble mean I would imagine that a few members are 6-12 hours faster with the onset of precipitation in NC.

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Can we save Winter?  Or we all going to be disappointed again.... New video is up.  Check it out, and like my page if you don't mind.   :)  Thanks for watching. 

https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons

Great Video as always Chris. I hope you are being conservative, but you are a straight shooter and just telling me like it is. 

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Pretty solid. I'm surprised that there are still 3-4 whiffs if they were caused by suppression.

 

I didn't look real hard at why as they were the minority.  Looking more closely, it's 2 complete whiffs and 2 others that have roughly 0.25"-0.5" of precip in NC.  With the 0.5" in central/eastern NC.  I am still of the opinion of just hoping for the over-running would be the best bet, 2-4" type event for NC, but when coastals want to develop they develop.

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