SnowNiner Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 My opinion on this Niner though is that our snow chances from a temperature standpoint are tied to the height pattern. If this gets amped up like the 18z with height rises in the southeast, it's over. We need a more suppressed version. We aren't going to have any kind of strong damming high to help us with the marginal low level cold as the warm advection moves through. Ah, so does that mean we don't want a full phase with the baja low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I didn't study the maps or anything but I kind of disagree with that. It looks like the system stalls out for 12 hours and then another wave of energy hits it. It moves NE and intensifies rather rapidly. Yeah, the 2nd wave was the main show on the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 LMAO...and we all believe the GFS right? last run it was burying itself. The DOC is rock steady....Good agreement with the CMC as well. GFS is alllllll over the place. No blocking to keep high in place and stronger vort at 500...I am worried up here cause any more adjustments and its rain for me...none of the models show block so we are relying on confluence...weaken that lp off Maine and hello apps runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Ah, so does that mean we don't want a full phase with the baja low? Yeah, you could probably say that. More than anything, the 2nd wave can't dig too far south and west - that leads to height rises over the southeast states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Not to mention, all over the place lol and a noted warm as taco bell farting bias. More interaction with the Baja Low is getting the model to flood the region with warm air and the HP sliding out. no kidding...tells me the GFS is still to warm at least at 2m. I really think the VERY low Td's that are being forecasted (from what I have seen) are going to play havoc on Monday. The NAM looks like its trying to hit on this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 18z GEFS looked lockstep with its 12z run and close to EPS. QPF ticked SE a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 18z GEFS looked lockstep with its 12z run and close to EPS. QPF ticked SE a little.post it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 50% of the euro ensemble suite drops 6+ here Does Accuwx Pro have the Euro ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The gfs is all by itself as far as how warm it is at the surface. It continues to completely ignore the single digit dewpoints in place before precip starts and shows essentially NO evaporational cooling to speak of which is absolutely absurd. It has precip arriving here monday morning. Surface temps are below freezing..yet despite dewpoints as low as sub ZERO in most areas, there is essentially NO temp drop. in fact temps RISE after precip starts. I'll kiss every ass on this board if that verifies. I mean look at this..dewpoints at 06z and 12z monday. Precip arrives between 12z and 15z....yet temps rise to the mid 30s. Ideally we would like to see heavier precip than it's showing to fully take advantage of the low dewpoints/dry airmass but even though the initial precip is light, it's virtually impossible to see temps rise with wetbulbs so low and dewpoint depressions so high. And the fact is these dry and cold conditions exist throughout the ENTIRE boundary layer..its' not just the surface..so there is no basis at all for not seeing a temp drop. i think i can safely say you can toss it's surface temps in the garbage throughout this system. I agree FULLY!!! YES! That's what I have been thinking as well. Even down my way. Td's are VERY LOW. NAM looks like, so far, its doing the best with this. EURO/CMC next. UKIE looks all on its own and wrong imo. GFS looks wrong with this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 pack, are you saying the 18z gfs ensembles are a better fit with what we are seeing on other models vs the gfs 18z op run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 No blocking to keep high in place and stronger vort at 500...I am worried up here cause any more adjustments and its rain for me...none of the models show block so we are relying on confluence...weaken that lp off Maine and hello apps runner I respectfully disagree. The northern branch for Monday will squash the flow. Now if there was like a full latt. phase sure...but, I don't see that as of now happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 post it! On my phone, hopefully Allan or Wow will do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Does Accuwx Pro have the Euro ensembles? Just the control run. I get the euro ensembles from the bell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Here's the 120 hour QPF map for the 18z GEFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 pack, are you saying the 18z gfs ensembles are a better fit with what we are seeing on other models vs the gfs 18z op run? It looks like it's 12z ens run and close to the Euro Op and its ens run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It looks like it's 12z ens run and close to the Euro Op and its ens run. Though so. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 True, but that may not be the case this time around. DPs in Atlanta for example have been in the single digits since this morning. It was down as low as 2 an hour ago. With the second arctic front sweeping in Sat. Night I suspect they will be the same, maybe even sub-zero DPs north of here as depicted.What do dewpoints mean in terms of the storm?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 FWIW... (NOT MUCH)... the 18z DGEX barely scraps the coast with a little precip. It's a terrible run most of us. Very suppressed. EDIT: Sorry, the AmericanWx map must have been a little off. It's still suppressed, though not bad. 2-4" back to the foothills, but a good hit for central/eastern NC. EDIT: If you want to see the NAVGEM, here it is: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_DOD_area.cgi?dtg=2015021318&area=fnmoc_namer&set=All Sorry ther was a bug with the scripts I re did it. HEre is the 18z dgex snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Confidence! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Sorry ther was a bug with the scripts I re did it. HEre is the 18z dgex snowthat is a big shift south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 What do dewpoints mean in terms of the storm?. Lower dewpoints = more cooling of the atmosphere & what could be the difference in falling snow staying that way or melting into rain. Here is a wet bulb calc. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/epz/?n=wxcalc_rh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Nearly every one of the 18z GEFS panels look great by 84 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 No blocking to keep high in place and stronger vort at 500...I am worried up here cause any more adjustments and its rain for me...none of the models show block so we are relying on confluence...weaken that lp off Maine and hello apps runner Step back from the edge. At least until Sunday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Remember ANY Euro snow map includes ZR and IP. Not sure why, but it will make the snow amounts look bigger, especially in this case on the southern edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Remember ANY Euro snow map includes ZR and IP. Not sure why, but it will make the snow amounts look bigger, especially in this case on the southern edge. Only one I know of that doesn't are the EuroWx maps. They take into account ice/snow and calculate ratios too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Remember ANY Euro snow map includes ZR and IP. Not sure why, but it will make the snow amounts look bigger, especially in this case on the southern edge. Yep for sure down our way. Whats your take on the 18Z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 As bad as the 18z Op GFS was it was 1-2F from being a crippling ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Lower dewpoints = more cooling of the atmosphere & what could be the difference in falling snow staying that way or melting into rain. Here is a wet bulb calc. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/epz/?n=wxcalc_rh Good stuff! Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Sorry ther was a bug with the scripts I re did it. HEre is the 18z dgex snow Lol that looks great, nothing for me!!!! Streak looks to hold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I respectfully disagree. The northern branch for Monday will squash the flow. Now if there was like a full latt. phase sure...but, I don't see that as of now happening. Ok. Thanks and I enjoy your videos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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