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Feb 16th/17th/18th Winter Wx


burgertime

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My opinion on this Niner though is that our snow chances from a temperature standpoint are tied to the height pattern. If this gets amped up like the 18z with height rises in the southeast, it's over. We need a more suppressed version. We aren't going to have any kind of strong damming high to help us with the marginal low level cold as the warm advection moves through.

Ah, so does that mean we don't want a full phase with the baja low?

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LMAO...and we all believe the GFS right?  last run it was burying itself.  The DOC is rock steady....Good agreement with the CMC as well.  GFS is alllllll over the place.

No blocking to keep high in place and stronger vort at 500...I am worried up here cause any more adjustments and its rain for me...none of the models show block so we are relying on confluence...weaken that lp off Maine and hello apps runner

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Not to mention, all over the place lol and a noted warm as taco bell farting bias. More interaction with the Baja Low is getting the model to flood the region with warm air and the HP sliding out.

no kidding...tells me the GFS is still to warm at least at 2m.  I really think the VERY low Td's that are being forecasted (from what I have seen) are going to play havoc on Monday.  The NAM looks like its trying to hit on this point.

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The gfs is all by itself as far as how warm it is at the surface. It continues to completely ignore the single digit dewpoints in place before precip starts and shows essentially NO evaporational cooling to speak  of which is absolutely absurd.

 

It has precip arriving here monday morning. Surface temps are below freezing..yet despite dewpoints as low as sub ZERO in most areas, there is essentially NO temp drop. in fact temps RISE after precip starts. I'll kiss every ass on this board if that verifies.

 

I mean look at this..dewpoints at 06z and 12z monday. Precip arrives between 12z and 15z....yet temps rise to the mid 30s. Ideally we would like to see heavier precip than it's showing to fully take advantage of the low dewpoints/dry airmass but even though the initial precip is light, it's virtually impossible to see temps rise with wetbulbs so low and dewpoint depressions so high. And the fact is these dry and cold conditions exist throughout the ENTIRE boundary layer..its' not just the surface..so there is no basis at all for not seeing a temp drop.

 

i think i  can safely say you can toss it's surface temps in the garbage throughout this system.

gfs_Td2m_seus_11.png

 

gfs_Td2m_seus_12.png

I agree FULLY!!!  YES!  That's what I have been thinking as well.  Even down my way.  Td's are VERY LOW.  NAM looks like, so far, its doing the best with this.  EURO/CMC next.  UKIE looks all on its own and wrong imo.  GFS looks wrong with this as well. 

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No blocking to keep high in place and stronger vort at 500...I am worried up here cause any more adjustments and its rain for me...none of the models show block so we are relying on confluence...weaken that lp off Maine and hello apps runner

I respectfully disagree.  The northern branch for Monday will squash the flow.  Now if there was like a full latt. phase sure...but, I don't see that as of now happening.

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True, but that may not be the case this time around. DPs in Atlanta for example have been in the single digits since this morning. It was down as low as 2 an hour ago. With the second arctic front sweeping in Sat. Night I suspect they will be the same, maybe even sub-zero DPs north of here as depicted.

What do dewpoints mean in terms of the storm?.
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FWIW... (NOT MUCH)... the 18z DGEX barely scraps the coast with a little precip.  It's a terrible run most of us.  Very suppressed.

 

EDIT: Sorry, the AmericanWx map must have been a little off.  It's still suppressed, though not bad. 2-4" back to the foothills, but a good hit for central/eastern NC.

 

EDIT: If you want to see the NAVGEM, here it is: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_DOD_area.cgi?dtg=2015021318&area=fnmoc_namer&set=All

Sorry ther was a bug with the scripts I re did it. HEre is the 18z dgex snow

post-25-0-48138100-1423869762_thumb.gif

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No blocking to keep high in place and stronger vort at 500...I am worried up here cause any more adjustments and its rain for me...none of the models show block so we are relying on confluence...weaken that lp off Maine and hello apps runner

 

Step back from the edge. At least until Sunday...

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