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Feb 16th/17th/18th Winter Wx


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DPS have consistently been modeled WAY too low on the GFS recently...  The last Arctic blast in January was a prime example where the GFS missed by as much as 15 degrees....

I'm aware it sometimes goes a bit over board on dewpoints but every model is showing dewpoints at least in the single digits. Canadian has them as low as -5 12z monday. There will be thick cloud cover at the least monday so temps probably don't get higher than the mid 30s which means wetbulbs are well down into the 20s.

 

TD_PN_072_0000.gif

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I'm aware it sometimes goes a bit over board on dewpoints but every model is showing dewpoints at least in the single digits. Canadian has them as low as -5 12z monday. There will be thick cloud cover at the least monday so temps probably don't get higher than the mid 30s which means wetbulbs are well down into the 20s.

 

 

 

Agreed, I was just wanting to add this "concern" of mine.  It very well could be a non factor as you say.

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18z GFS --- Looks like RDU would go from snow to ice then we would be right on the line for a switch to rain. Then it would go back to snow. If we stayed all ice it would be really bad.

 

Low resolution p-types:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_096_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18&param=dom_precip_type&fhr=096&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150213+18+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

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6z to 18z GFS solutions look like they came from different models entirely. A weather model should not change that much in 12hrs if it has anywhere close to a clue on what is going on. 

 

We tossed the 6z after the foreign 12z suite came in and I bet we will do the same this evening with 18z. Just my .02

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Indeed... I had to look at that again, I knew it was something if you used langu

 

God damn at the 18z NAVGEM.  Must be pushing a foot for the I-85 corridor.  RDU is pretty borderline at times, but I'd still say it's a good hit there.

 

dear god... that's just inhumane, I dont even want to see the snow map for that

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I find it interesting that the warm biased NAVGEM takes about the same track/intensity/timing of the surface low as the GFS... yet it is way way colder than the GFS at 2m and 850 mb.

 

What the heck is going on with the GFS? It's really on an island by itself with temps, god help us if it actually scores a win against all the other models here...

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DPS have consistently been modeled WAY too low on the GFS recently...  The last Arctic blast in January was a prime example where the GFS missed by as much as 15 degrees....

 

True, but that may not be the case this time around. DPs in Atlanta for example have been in the single digits since this morning. It was down as low as 2 an hour ago. With the second arctic front sweeping in Sat. Night I suspect they will be the same, maybe even sub-zero DPs north of here as depicted.

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FWIW... (NOT MUCH)... the 18z DGEX barely scraps the coast with a little precip.  It's a terrible run most of us.  Very suppressed.

 

EDIT: Sorry, the AmericanWx map must have been a little off.  It's still suppressed, though not bad. 2-4" back to the foothills, but a good hit for central/eastern NC.

 

EDIT: If you want to see the NAVGEM, here it is: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_DOD_area.cgi?dtg=2015021318&area=fnmoc_namer&set=All

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Grit posted the 12Z ensembles a bit ago and for GFS/CMC/EURO and they ALL had a nice location of that high in the NE.  It looks like it scoots this run and that's probably the difference.  As long as the ensembles keep them there I think we're still in good shape.  I do like the fact this run tapped the baja energy.

 

My opinion on this Niner though is that our snow chances from a temperature standpoint are tied to the height pattern.  If this gets amped up like the 18z with height rises in the southeast, it's over.  We need a more suppressed version.  We aren't going to have any kind of strong damming high to help us with the marginal low level cold as the warm advection moves through.

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18z GFS --- Looks like RDU would go from snow to ice then we would be right on the line for a switch to rain. Then it would go back to snow. If we stayed all ice it would be really bad.

 

Low resolution p-types:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_096_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18&param=dom_precip_type&fhr=096&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150213+18+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

 

So we have the 12z euro with the biggest hit to our SE and the 18z gfs with the biggest hit to our our NW.  Yep, I'm pretty good with the Triangle at this range.   :)

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FWIW... (NOT MUCH)... the 18z DGEX barely scraps the coast with a little precip.  It's a terrible run most of us.  Very suppressed.

 

At least the NAM delivered a decent snow to most before the dgex started running.. I don't mind going 1 for 2 here. Just don't wanna strike out.

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True, but that may not be the case this time around. DPs in Atlanta for example have been in the single digits since this morning. It was down as low as 2 an hour ago. With the second arctic front sweeping in Sat. Night I suspect they will be the same, maybe even sub-zero DPs north of here as depicted.

In a billion years Atlanta probably doesn't see anything frozen if you take the 18Z GFS literally it's possible if the overrunning wave got in there early enough they probably see some sleet but they're going to need this thing to stay weaker

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I know there are some that have waiting on what I might think might happen, well, this is the year of the nearly unforecastable winter it seems. I thoroughly believe one thing with this airmass for Sun-tue. It's bitterly cold, it's bone dry and diabatic processes will likely enhance the chances of keeping a cold pool in the region. It might even develop a small meso-high. Anyway I think the GFS is still warming things way too quickly here.

Edit: after seeing Lookout's TD graph_, now I KNOW the GFS's warmup is full of crap.

I've pondered that myself.

This actually made me giggle   :lol:

 

I agree with the bolded   :D

:thumbsup:

 

Agreed, I was just wanting to add this "concern" of mine.  It very well could be a non factor as you say.

If the gfs precip forecast verifies, i would hope it would be right with those temps because as much as I love winter weather, I don't want to see that much ice.  It's nuts the gfs went from nothing to throwing out 2 inch plus amounts in one run. Talk about run to run inconsistency. Good grief.

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In a billion years Atlanta probably doesn't see anything frozen if you take the 18Z GFS literally it's possible if the overrunning wave got in there early enough they probably see some sleet but they're going to need this thing to stay weaker

 

 

Yeah, not a good run for the ATL area at all...ugh...I will be very disappointed if we miss out on this storm as it's likely our only chance this winter.

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18z NAVGEM is a Biblical ECS for Upstate SC and west/central NC.  wowza!!!

 

Edit: Best I can tell the Jackpot zone would be just to the Northwest of Charlotte where it dumps about 1.25 inches of liquid all in the form of snow...

 

That's pretty impressive considering the NAVGEM's dry/warm biases.

 

Where are you getting the 18z NAVGEM info from? It hasn't came out yet on AmWx, WxBell, or Tropical Tidbits.

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Yeah, not a good run for the ATL area at all...ugh...I will be very disappointed if we miss out on this storm as it's likely our only chance this winter.

I keep having flashbacks with that depiction from 63-75 that's exactly the setup that got me 10 or so years ago except then the models didn't see the precip dying as it crossed into GA and the dry air cannot remember the year but likely 02-04 and the NWS busted too forecast 3-4 inches in ATL and not one flake but I think Douglasville saw 5 inches

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In a billion years Atlanta probably doesn't see anything frozen if you take the 18Z GFS literally it's possible if the overrunning wave got in there early enough they probably see some sleet but they're going to need this thing to stay weaker

But you can't take it literally, This is a good setup for winter weather of some form or fashion in atlanta.

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But you can't take it literally, This is a good setup for winter weather of some form or fashion in atlanta.

If the initial wave gets in no doubt, the 12z euro appeared to be a big sleet storm for them Monday night, surface was cold enough but 850s were +1 to +3 or so, if it holds that idea another run I would feel better

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6z to 18z GFS solutions look like they came from different models entirely. A weather model should not change that much in 12hrs if it has anywhere close to a clue on what is going on. 

 

We tossed the 6z after the foreign 12z suite came in and I bet we will do the same this evening with 18z. Just my .02

 

I wouldn't toss any model that jumps in line with the consensus this late in the game...would be foolish to do so imho

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