Lookout Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 DPS have consistently been modeled WAY too low on the GFS recently... The last Arctic blast in January was a prime example where the GFS missed by as much as 15 degrees.... I'm aware it sometimes goes a bit over board on dewpoints but every model is showing dewpoints at least in the single digits. Canadian has them as low as -5 12z monday. There will be thick cloud cover at the least monday so temps probably don't get higher than the mid 30s which means wetbulbs are well down into the 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I'm aware it sometimes goes a bit over board on dewpoints but every model is showing dewpoints at least in the single digits. Canadian has them as low as -5 12z monday. There will be thick cloud cover at the least monday so temps probably don't get higher than the mid 30s which means wetbulbs are well down into the 20s. Agreed, I was just wanting to add this "concern" of mine. It very well could be a non factor as you say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 What do you experienced posters make of the dry slot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 18z GFS --- Looks like RDU would go from snow to ice then we would be right on the line for a switch to rain. Then it would go back to snow. If we stayed all ice it would be really bad. Low resolution p-types: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_096_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=dom_precip_type&fhr=096&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150213+18+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Wow at the 18z NAVGEM. Must be pushing a foot for the I-85 corridor. RDU is pretty borderline at times, but I'd still say it's a good hit there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 What do you experienced posters make of the dry slot? Down sloping dry slot... us ppl in the Lee of the apps can testify to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 God damn at the 18z NAVGEM. Must be pushing a foot for the I-85 corridor. Indeed... I had to look at that again, I knew it was something if you used language Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 6z to 18z GFS solutions look like they came from different models entirely. A weather model should not change that much in 12hrs if it has anywhere close to a clue on what is going on. We tossed the 6z after the foreign 12z suite came in and I bet we will do the same this evening with 18z. Just my .02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 What do you experienced posters make of the dry slot? Looks like it's just showing NWFS snow in the mountains as the low wraps up and goes up the coast. It brings a NW wind with it and you get upslope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Is this " disaster" 18z GFS still have the Monday snow, and the temp problems are for the 2nd wave? A little confusing at times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Indeed... I had to look at that again, I knew it was something if you used langu God damn at the 18z NAVGEM. Must be pushing a foot for the I-85 corridor. RDU is pretty borderline at times, but I'd still say it's a good hit there. dear god... that's just inhumane, I dont even want to see the snow map for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Is this " disaster" 18z GFS still have the Monday snow, and the temp problems are for the 2nd wave? A little confusing at times the second wave is pretty much non existent on the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I find it interesting that the warm biased NAVGEM takes about the same track/intensity/timing of the surface low as the GFS... yet it is way way colder than the GFS at 2m and 850 mb. What the heck is going on with the GFS? It's really on an island by itself with temps, god help us if it actually scores a win against all the other models here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 DPS have consistently been modeled WAY too low on the GFS recently... The last Arctic blast in January was a prime example where the GFS missed by as much as 15 degrees.... True, but that may not be the case this time around. DPs in Atlanta for example have been in the single digits since this morning. It was down as low as 2 an hour ago. With the second arctic front sweeping in Sat. Night I suspect they will be the same, maybe even sub-zero DPs north of here as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 God damn at the 18z NAVGEM. Must be pushing a foot for the I-85 corridor. RDU is pretty borderline at times, but I'd still say it's a good hit there.James, this post means nothing without a picture :-) if you can post that would be great thanksSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 FWIW... (NOT MUCH)... the 18z DGEX barely scraps the coast with a little precip. It's a terrible run most of us. Very suppressed. EDIT: Sorry, the AmericanWx map must have been a little off. It's still suppressed, though not bad. 2-4" back to the foothills, but a good hit for central/eastern NC. EDIT: If you want to see the NAVGEM, here it is: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_DOD_area.cgi?dtg=2015021318&area=fnmoc_namer&set=All Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Grit posted the 12Z ensembles a bit ago and for GFS/CMC/EURO and they ALL had a nice location of that high in the NE. It looks like it scoots this run and that's probably the difference. As long as the ensembles keep them there I think we're still in good shape. I do like the fact this run tapped the baja energy. My opinion on this Niner though is that our snow chances from a temperature standpoint are tied to the height pattern. If this gets amped up like the 18z with height rises in the southeast, it's over. We need a more suppressed version. We aren't going to have any kind of strong damming high to help us with the marginal low level cold as the warm advection moves through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 18z GFS --- Looks like RDU would go from snow to ice then we would be right on the line for a switch to rain. Then it would go back to snow. If we stayed all ice it would be really bad. Low resolution p-types: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_096_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=dom_precip_type&fhr=096&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150213+18+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 So we have the 12z euro with the biggest hit to our SE and the 18z gfs with the biggest hit to our our NW. Yep, I'm pretty good with the Triangle at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 FWIW... (NOT MUCH)... the 18z DGEX barely scraps the coast with a little precip. It's a terrible run most of us. Very suppressed. At least the NAM delivered a decent snow to most before the dgex started running.. I don't mind going 1 for 2 here. Just don't wanna strike out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 True, but that may not be the case this time around. DPs in Atlanta for example have been in the single digits since this morning. It was down as low as 2 an hour ago. With the second arctic front sweeping in Sat. Night I suspect they will be the same, maybe even sub-zero DPs north of here as depicted. In a billion years Atlanta probably doesn't see anything frozen if you take the 18Z GFS literally it's possible if the overrunning wave got in there early enough they probably see some sleet but they're going to need this thing to stay weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I know there are some that have waiting on what I might think might happen, well, this is the year of the nearly unforecastable winter it seems. I thoroughly believe one thing with this airmass for Sun-tue. It's bitterly cold, it's bone dry and diabatic processes will likely enhance the chances of keeping a cold pool in the region. It might even develop a small meso-high. Anyway I think the GFS is still warming things way too quickly here. Edit: after seeing Lookout's TD graph_, now I KNOW the GFS's warmup is full of crap. I've pondered that myself. This actually made me giggle I agree with the bolded Agreed, I was just wanting to add this "concern" of mine. It very well could be a non factor as you say. If the gfs precip forecast verifies, i would hope it would be right with those temps because as much as I love winter weather, I don't want to see that much ice. It's nuts the gfs went from nothing to throwing out 2 inch plus amounts in one run. Talk about run to run inconsistency. Good grief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 In a billion years Atlanta probably doesn't see anything frozen if you take the 18Z GFS literally it's possible if the overrunning wave got in there early enough they probably see some sleet but they're going to need this thing to stay weaker Yeah, not a good run for the ATL area at all...ugh...I will be very disappointed if we miss out on this storm as it's likely our only chance this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 18z NAVGEM is a Biblical ECS for Upstate SC and west/central NC. wowza!!! Edit: Best I can tell the Jackpot zone would be just to the Northwest of Charlotte where it dumps about 1.25 inches of liquid all in the form of snow... That's pretty impressive considering the NAVGEM's dry/warm biases. Where are you getting the 18z NAVGEM info from? It hasn't came out yet on AmWx, WxBell, or Tropical Tidbits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Where are you getting the 18z NAVGEM info from? It hasn't came out yet on AmWx, WxBell, or Tropical Tidbits. See superjame's post above... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yeah, not a good run for the ATL area at all...ugh...I will be very disappointed if we miss out on this storm as it's likely our only chance this winter. I keep having flashbacks with that depiction from 63-75 that's exactly the setup that got me 10 or so years ago except then the models didn't see the precip dying as it crossed into GA and the dry air cannot remember the year but likely 02-04 and the NWS busted too forecast 3-4 inches in ATL and not one flake but I think Douglasville saw 5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 In a billion years Atlanta probably doesn't see anything frozen if you take the 18Z GFS literally it's possible if the overrunning wave got in there early enough they probably see some sleet but they're going to need this thing to stay weaker But you can't take it literally, This is a good setup for winter weather of some form or fashion in atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 50% of the euro ensemble suite drops 6+ here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 the second wave is pretty much non existent on the 18z I didn't study the maps or anything but I kind of disagree with that. It looks like the system stalls out for 12 hours and then another wave of energy hits it. It moves NE and intensifies rather rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 But you can't take it literally, This is a good setup for winter weather of some form or fashion in atlanta. If the initial wave gets in no doubt, the 12z euro appeared to be a big sleet storm for them Monday night, surface was cold enough but 850s were +1 to +3 or so, if it holds that idea another run I would feel better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 6z to 18z GFS solutions look like they came from different models entirely. A weather model should not change that much in 12hrs if it has anywhere close to a clue on what is going on. We tossed the 6z after the foreign 12z suite came in and I bet we will do the same this evening with 18z. Just my .02 I wouldn't toss any model that jumps in line with the consensus this late in the game...would be foolish to do so imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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